How Josh Allen Injury Rumors Have Affected Odds for Bills vs. Vikings, NFL MVP, Super Bowl
- Josh Allen sprained his elbow against the Jets and the Bills' odds have tanked for their game against the Vikings on Sunday.
- Allen's MVP odds have fallen precipitously, too. While he had been the +110 favorite less than a week ago, his odds have cratered to +350 -- the third-best favorite.
- Curiously, the marketplace is still bullish about Allen's long-term prospects despite concerns in the interim. The Bills are still sturdy favorites across the market to win it all.
Josh Allen has suffered a sprain to his ulnar collateral ligament, ESPN reported on Wednesday.
A full tear in the UCL requires Tommy John surgery in baseball pitchers. In sprains, treatment typically consists of rest and medication, along with close subsequent evaluations. Roughly half of pitchers that suffer a sprained UCL eventually need Tommy John surgery.
Allen has now missed two straight practices and is listed as day-to-day for the Bills game against the Vikings on Sunday.
The All-Pro quarterback suffered the ailment during the Bills' loss to the Jets on Sunday. On the game's third-to-last meaningful play, Allen geared up to throw down field with less than two minutes remaining, trailing by three points.
Video of the play where Josh Allen suffered his elbow injury. Happened on Buffalo’s final drive on Sunday: pic.twitter.com/RrPT2iVYfD
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 7, 2022
Allen was seen clutching his elbow and attempting to stretch his arm out before resuming the rest of the drive. Two plays later, the MVP favorite threw the ball 69.3 yards in the air on a fourth-and-21 desperation heave. While the ball fell incomplete — and ended the game — it was the farthest ball thrown in an NFL game in six seasons.
The ball also hit Gabe Davis square in the chest, but Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner was there to disrupt the wide receiver from hauling in the catch.
Perhaps partially due to how far and accurate Allen threw that ball after his ailment, the Bills' odds to win the Super Bowl have remain unchanged, indicating the marketplace is confident this won't be a long-term issue.
The Bills are still the favorites at +275 at BetMGM to win it all. For reference, the second-best favorite Eagles are +500 while the Chiefs clock in at +550. That mark is down from +225 before Buffalo's loss to New York.
Same goes for DraftKings, which has the Bills as the substantial Super Bowl favorites at +290. The Eagles and Chiefs are +500.
While the marketplace seemed bullish on Allen's longterm availability, they're less so about his short-term prospects.
Allen's MVP odds have tanked across sportsbooks. Even after the Bills' loss to the Jets, Allen remained the MVP favorite at +225 at BetMGM, down from +110 before the loss.
With lingering momentum from the injury news on Tuesday, those odds have tanked to +350 — the third-best favorite now behind Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.
Staying healthy is paramount to winning the MVP in the NFL. No player has missed three games and won the MVP since Joe Montana did so in 1989. The last to miss two games and win was Steve McNair in 2003.
And Buffalo's odds against the Vikings have fallen precipitously, too, as a result of Allen's potential absence.
While the Bills opened as -7.5 favorites vs. the Vikings, the consensus across the market has the Bills at about -3.5 as of Thursday afternoon. On the moneyline, they had opened as roughly -375 favorites. That mark is down to as bad as -175 at DraftKings.
If you're confident that Allen will play this Sunday, the best price on the Bills' spread as of writing is -3.5 (+100) at PointsBet.
If you're bullish on the Vikings, you're getting a far worse price than you would have on Sunday night, when it was sitting around +295 — now, the best available price is +165 at SuperBook.
The best spread price on Minnesota you'd be able to snag is +3.5 (-110) at DraftKings, down from as high as +7.5 (+105) upon opening on Sunday night.