Colts vs Falcons Prediction & Odds | NFL Week 16 Preview

Colts vs Falcons Prediction & Odds | NFL Week 16 Preview article feature image

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Colts vs Falcons Prediction & Odds | NFL Week 16 Preview

Sunday, Dec. 24
1 p.m. ET
Colts Odds
-110o / -110u
Falcons Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Colts vs Falcons odds have the Falcons as 2.5-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 45.5 total points for this NFL Week 16 Christmas Eve game. My NFL pick for this game is on the home favorite in what is a great matchup.

The Colts have been one of the surprise teams of the season. After losing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson so early in the season, they have found ways to get to 8-6 and are a possible playoff team. Meanwhile, the Falcons suffered a devastating loss to the Panthers last week to drop to third in the NFC South race. Both of these teams are very much in the playoff hunt, so this game is huge.

Continue reading below for analysis on Indianapolis-Atlanta, plus my Colts vs Falcons prediction.

Colts vs Falcons Prediction

Pick: Falcons -2.5 | Play to -2.5

Colts vs. Falcons Preview

The Colts are putting together a great season in the first year under Shane Steichen. Entering the weekend, they are one of five AFC teams tied at 8-6 (with the Bengals, Bills, Jaguars and Texans). With both Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud’s health in doubt, the window is open for Gardner Minshew and the Colts not only to make the playoffs, but also to win the AFC South.

The Colts aren’t particularly great at any one thing, but they have played consistently solid football across the board to get to this point. They are about middle of the road on both sides of the ball, ranking 15th in offensive DVOA and 16th in defensive DVOA.

However, they do struggle on special teams where they are 30th in DVOA. They will also be without their primary returner, Isaiah McKenzie, for the rest of the season due to a team suspension.

The Falcons aren’t much better on special teams, ranking 28th in DVOA. However, they do have an edge at kicker, which could be massive in a game that could easily come down to a field goal.

Younghoe Koo is 22-for-23 on field goals inside of 50 yards and he also has the leg to hit a deep one when needed. Meanwhile, Matt Gay is below 80% on field goals and missed two field goals against Pittsburgh last week.

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Colts vs. Falcons Picks | FanDuel

Colts +2.5 (-102)

Falcons -2.5 (-120)

To be frank, I don't think the Colts defense is very good. They have middling numbers because they have handled the bad offenses on their schedule like the Patriots, Steelers and Panthers. Over the last two months, they have been shredded by basically any offense with a pulse.

They allowed 467 yards to the Rams, 37 points to the Jaguars, 39 points to the Browns, 38 points to the Saints, 381 yards and 28 points to the Titans and then 385 yards and 34 points to the Bengals. The Bucs are the only competent offense that hasn't shredded them since late September. 

Now, the argument could be made that the Falcons offense isn't that great. It would be hard to disagree with that assessment, but the Falcons have some of the most drastic home-road splits in the NFL.

The Falcons are averaging 388 yards of offense at home this season compared to 266 on the road. They are averaging 5.7 yards per play (YPP) at home compared to 4.3 on the road, which is tied for the biggest home-road split in the league when it comes to YPP. Finally, the Falcons are averaging 23.3 points per game (PPG) at home compared to 13.6 on the road. Only the Cowboys and Cardinals have bigger home-road splits when it comes to PPG.

Arthur Smith has confirmed that the quarterback carousel will continue in Atlanta with Taylor Heinicke starting the rest of this season. In the grand scheme of things, I agree that Heinicke is the better option. More importantly, a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson should be a recipe for success against the Colts’ No. 23 rush defense (DVOA).

Colts vs. Falcons Pick & Prediction

Overall, the Colts are being overvalued in the market after beating the lifeless Steelers, and the Falcons are being undervalued after losing to the Panthers in a monsoon last week.

The Falcons have been a much better team at home and still have everything to play for as they look to stay in the NFC South race. 

Pick: Falcons -2.5 | Play to -2.5
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