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Jaguars vs Colts Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6

Jaguars vs Colts Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6 article feature image
Credit:

Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Lawrence.

  • The Colts are without Jonathan Taylor for a second straight game.
  • Indianapolis is still favored at home against the Jaguars, who have lost two straight games.
  • Cody Goggin breaks down both sides and makes a pick below.

Jaguars vs. Colts Odds

Sunday, Oct. 16
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Jaguars Odds +1.5
Colts Odds -1.5
Moneyline +108 / -126
Over/Under 41
Odds via FanDuel.

It’s only Week 6, but this will already be the second time this season that the Colts and the Jaguars face off.

In their first matchup, the Jaguars dominated and won by a score of 24-0. The final score was a bit misleading, as the Colts had two turnovers on downs in the red zone in the 4th quarter whenever they were attempting to stage a comeback.

However, just because the final score was misleading does not mean that Indianapolis was not dramatically outplayed. The Jaguars posted a 75% series conversion rate and 45% success rate to figures of just 45% and 28% for the Colts.

Now that the Colts are healthier on offense, will they play the way they were expected to in their first matchup as they entered that game as three point favorites, or will the Jaguars prove to be the superior team and earn a season sweep in this series?

Here are my NFL Week 6 picks and predictions for Jaguars vs Colts.

Jaguars vs. Colts Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jaguars and Colts match up statistically:

Jaguars vs. Colts DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 15 11
Pass DVOA 9 21
Rush DVOA 27 2
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 32 7
Pass DVOA 32 9
Rush DVOA 32 9

Jacksonville started this season on fire, going 2-1 through the first few weeks, including a shocking blowout victory over the Chargers. Since that game, though, the Jaguars have fallen to the Eagles and then the Texans in the last two weeks. Following that Texans game, it’s hard to know what to expect from the Jaguars this week.

Indianapolis, on the other hand, still hasn’t fully figured out its offense. They were able to pull out close wins against Kansas City and Denver, but this offense has been dreadful this season. By EPA per play, the Colts have been one of the least efficient teams in the league, ranking 28th in passing efficiency and 30th in rushing efficiency.

Unfortunately for the Colts, they are still banged up on defense. Shaquille Leonard has been ruled out yet again for this week, while Kwity Paye is also out with an ankle injury. 

The offense is also battling some injury issues. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines were ruled out Saturday, leaving the Colts with a thin running back corps.


Bet at FanDuel
Jaguars +1.5 | Colts -1.5


Matt Ryan has been running for his life this season. The Colts rank 27th in PFF pass blocking grade and 28th in pass block win rate, which is the primary reason why Ryan leads the league with 11 fumbles this year. For reference on how much of a problem that has been, the next closest players have seven. 

Jacksonville’s defense has the fourth best dropback success rate in the league and third best dropback EPA in the league. The Jaguars also have the second best pass rush win rate in the league at 52% and sixth best run stop win rate. Even with Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce playing in this game, this may be another tough day for Matt Ryan.

Trevor Lawrence played fantastic against Indianapolis the first time these teams faced off. Lawrence averaged an astonishing 0.57 EPA per play and had a CPOE of 14.3 as well. He had a very efficient day, completing 25 of his 30 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns. This Colts defense ranks just 27th in dropback success rate while the Jaguars offense ranks sixth.

It’s a lot to ask of a young quarterback, but there is reason to believe that Lawrence could repeat this performance.

Betting Picks

The Jaguars thoroughly dominated Indianapolis in Week 2. Playing just four weeks later, I don’t see this game going too much differently. 

Matt Ryan and the Colts offense have not been able to get things going all season, and their offensive line is still a liability against a very good Jacksonville front.

Last time out, Trevor Lawrence shredded this defense that is still missing their star linebacker and now has lost a talented edge rusher as well. I don’t know what to make of the stinker against Houston last week, but I still have faith in the improvements that Jacksonville has shown under Doug Pederson.

I got the Jaguars at +2.5 before the Colts’ injury news Saturday, and I’d still take the Jaguars at +1.5, inside the key number of 3.

Quickslip: Jaguars +1.5 | Bet to -1.5 (-120)

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