Jaguars vs. Raiders Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions: Oakland’s Run Game Should Go Wild

Jaguars vs. Raiders Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions: Oakland’s Run Game Should Go Wild article feature image

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

  • The Oakland Raiders are 5-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, according to the latest betting odds.
  • The over/under is now at 46.5, which is up from the opener of 44.5.
  • Our NFL betting experts analyze all the angles for Jaguars-Raiders and pick out their favorite bets.

Jaguars at Raiders Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Raiders -5
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

The Jaguars and Raiders are on nasty losing streaks as they enter their Week 15 matchup. Which team will end their struggles and pick up a win?

Our experts preview this matchup below.

Jaguars-Raiders Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Raiders

If Josh Jacobs (shoulder) suits up, I’d consider Oakland the healthier team. He has practiced in some fashion this week, which is a good sign for his status, but he’s still dealing with a fractured shoulder. His status sounds up in the air at the time of writing.

The Jaguars consider D.J. Chark (foot) as “week-to-week” and claim he’ll be a game-time decision. He hasn’t practiced on Wednesday or Thursday, which typically isn’t a great sign. Even if he somehow does play, he likely won’t be 100%. I’d consider him more doubtful than questionable. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Raiders Running Backs vs. Jaguars Linebackers

Even if Jacobs is out, I still like the matchup for backups DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard.

Just two years ago, the Jags had one of the league’s most feared defenses. Now, they are No. 31 in rush defense and No. 26 in pass defense against running backs (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).

Just last week, the Jags allowed Chargers backs to go off for a combined 326 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries and 10 targets.

And that was no fluke: Over the past month, the Jags have allowed 225.8 yards and 2.3 touchdowns on 26 carries and five targets per game to opposing backfields.

The problem lies primarily with the Jags linebackers: Starters Myles Jack (knee, IR) and Quincy Williams (hand, IR) hadn’t played well this year anyway. They’re replaced by backups Donald Payne and Austin Calitro, both undrafted third-year special-teamers with little experience on defense.

And with their limited playing time this year, they’ve produced some incredibly poor Pro Football Focus grades.

  • Donald Payne: 27.3 overall grade, 50.8 run defense, 27.1 coverage
  • Austin Calitro: 40.7 overall grade, 46.4 run defense, 44.5 coverage

It almost doesn’t even matter who the running backs are: If they’re facing the Jags, they have a massive edge.

But I like the Raiders backs enough on their own. Jacobs was the first back selected in the 2019 draft, and he has lived up to the hype with 100.6 yards and 0.58 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. Washington put up 96 yards and a touchdown on 20 touches in Jacobs’ absence last week. And Richard is popping in one of our FantasyLabs Models.

Against the Jags, the backfield trio of Jacobs, Washington and Richard has 200-yard, multi-touchdown potential. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Raiders -4
  • Projected Total: 45.5

All underlying metrics show value on the Jaguars on this number, but the human element needs to be factored in here. The Jaguars have completely given up, especially on defense, so it’s hard to trust them right now. Additionally, this is the Raiders’ last game in Oakland.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hunter Renfrow (13), Darren Waller (83), Derek Carr (4)

Similar to the Dolphins game, I’m not interested in trying to find value with so many conflicting variables. I’ll only be taking a stab at player props from this matchup instead. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Our staff doesn’t see value on this game right now, but that could change as lines move, so download our app to follow specific experts and action around this game.

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