Jaguars vs. Titans Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds: An Over/Under Angle

Jaguars at Titans Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

• Odds: Titans -3.5
• Over/Under: 41.5
• Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening.

Nick Foles returned from injury last week, but the Jaguars played one of their worst games of the season in a 33-13 loss to the Colts. With another divisional matchup coming up this Sunday at Tennessee, will Jacksonville rebound or suffer another bruising defeat?

Our experts think that this game will be fought in the trenches and that points will be at a premium in a matchup featuring Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry.

Jaguars-Titans Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Titans

The bye did the Titans wonders as Corey Davis (hip), defensive lineman Jurrell Casey (shoulder) and linebacker Jayon Brown (groin) all returned to full practice. Delanie Walker (ankle) could be working his way back also as he returned to limited practice.

The Jaguars are also in good shape, but it’s worth noting that Dede Westbrook missed Thursdays practice with an illness after not appearing on the injury report on Wednesday. Wide receiver Chris Conley and cornerback DJ Hayden were all upgraded to full practice on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Titans Rush Defense vs. Jags Rush Offense

After last week’s loss to the Colts, Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone said he’d stick with the run more after Fournette carried the ball a season-low eight times.

The problem with that strategy is that the opposing Titans are the league’s fourth-most efficient run defense according to Football Outsiders' rushing DVOA metric, which adjusts for strength of schedule.

On top of that, the Jags are just 24th in rushing DVOA and Jags rank dead last in early-down rushing success rate (38%), per Sharp Football Stats. Much of the blame can be placed on an offensive line that is ranked 25th in adjusted line yards (3.79) and 29th in stuff rate (23%), per Football Outsiders.

The only thing that has kept the Jags’ run game afloat at all are a few long gains by Fournette, as evidenced by the Jags’ second-place ranking in open field yards (1.50), which are 10 or more yards gained beyond the line of scrimmage. That does provide a glimmer of hope for Jacksonville, though, as Tennessee’s one weakness in run defense has been the big play: The Titans rank 26th in open field yards on defense (0.97).

The return of Foles, however, complicates matters. While rookie fill-in Gardner Minshew lined up under center a fair amount, Foles is predominantly a shotgun quarterback, and Fournette struggles as a shotgun runner. This season, Fournette is averaging 5.0 yards per carry on 150 under-center attempts but just 3.3 yards per carry on 32 totes from the 'gun. And for his career, Fournette has posted 4.2 yards per carry under center but just 3.5 from the 'gun.

Marrone could get his team in trouble if he sticks with the run for too long, as Tennessee’s Derrick Henry-led rushing attack is capable of exploiting a Jacksonville run defense that ranks 24th in DVOA and bleeding clock, which could limit the Jags’ offensive possessions and cash tickets for under bettors. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Titans -3.5
• Projected Total: 39.5

Bookmakers opened this total at 42, and 58% of the tickets have come in on the over along with 80% of the cash as of writing (see live public betting data here). It’s created a reverse line move down to 41.5 and 41 at some books.

I have this matchup being just south of 40, meaning there's still some value here. — Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Koerner: Under 41.5

The Titans are coming out of their Week 11 bye with a likely clock-killing game plan to feed Derrick Henry. It would make sense to attack the Jaguars on the ground as they've been a sieve to opposing backs ever since Marcell Dareus was placed on IR in Week 8. Carlos Hyde ran over them for 160 yards in Week 9, while Marlon Mack and Jonathan Williams ran for 100-plus yards each on them last week.

In terms of pace of play, the Jaguars rank 16th while the Titans are 23rd (per Football Outsiders). However, in close games (within one score), both teams slow down with the Jaguars ranking 30th and the Titans 27th.

This matchup sets up to be a close run-heavy battle, which means both teams are likely to give into a game flow that strongly favors the under. Forty-one is one of the top-three key numbers for totals, so locking in under 41.5 before it falls to 41 at all books is the play.

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