Jets vs Cowboys Pick, Odds, NFL Week 2 Prediction
Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Wilson (left) and Dak Prescott (right).
Jets vs Cowboys Odds
Our Jets vs. Cowboys pick will highlight the late slate on Sunday for Week 2.
There are still questions to be answered in regards to both the Jets and Cowboys on the offensive side of the ball, but we have no questions about their defensive units. The Cowboys finished the week as the No. 1 defense in the NFL, according to DVOA, and the Jets defense rallied to stymie one of the top offenses in football.
Let's break down the Jets vs. Cowboys odds and make a pick.
It’s no secret the Cowboys have one of the top pass-rushing units in the NFL. According to Next Gen Stats, their front seven generated pressure on Daniel Jones on 62% of his dropbacks. This isn’t just the Micah Parsons show either, as eight different Dallas defenders were credited with multiple pressures.
Their performance against the Giants was not just a one-game outlier. Dan Quinn has changed the culture surrounding this defense since he took over in 2019.
Since the beginning of the 2022 season, they rank second in the NFL in points per drive allowed (1.55). They also ranked in the top-seven in DVOA against both the run and pass over that span — something only two other defenses in the league can boast.
New York has no choice but to call an extremely run-heavy gameplan on Sunday. In Zach Wilson’s time with the Jets, he has the worst passer rating in football out of all qualifying signal-callers when faced with pressure (37.1), completing just over 30% of his passes at an abysmal 4.7 yards per attempt (per Sharp Football).
Even if he is kept clean, Wilson isn’t likely to take many chances. Against Buffalo, his air yards per attempt was below the 5-yard mark on average and he failed to complete a single pass that traveled 20 yards in the air.
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Out of all quarterbacks that played in Week 1, Wilson and Desmond Ridder were the only two who attempted just one throw that traveled 15 yards down the field. If the Jets are going to put up points in this game, they will have to methodically move the ball down the field.
The coaching staff is well aware they have to limit negative plays on offense. Staying on schedule to shorten down and distances will be key for Wilson; the chances of him throwing interceptions will be directly correlated with how often he is relied upon to move the chains on 3rd-and-long.
When the Cowboys have the football, it will not be an easy task to create explosives against this Jets.
New York surrendered only two 10-plus-yard runs against the Bills, holding one of the top offenses in football to a mere 4.6 yards per play. The Jets front seven is led by Quinnen Williams, who is the ninth-best run stopper and fifth-best pass rusher on the interior, according to PFF grade. His ability to create havoc is especially important this week as he’ll see plenty of All-Pro guard Zach Martin.
Martin is not 100% heading into Sunday, as he has been limited all week with a groin injury. If the Cowboys cannot get a consistent push in the run game, it will play right into the hands of the ball-hawking secondary of the Jets.
When taking into consideration the projected plan of attack for the Jets with Wilson under center, I have a difficult time seeing Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy countering with an aggressive blueprint as he continues to call plays. Since the beginning of 2014, all September games played with a total below 40 have tilted to the under at a 60.9% clip over a 23-game sample size.
Jets vs. Cowboys
Betting Picks & Predictions
In the 22 games Zach Wilson has started for the Jets, the under has cashed in 59.1% of them. In games where the total closes below 40, the under has cashed at 100% rate when Wilson is leading the charge.
Furthermore, while his opposition in this game, Dak Prescott, has not started many games in his career with this low of a total, we have seen 12 games in which the over/under closed at 42.5 or lower. The under has paid out at a 66.6% rate in those 12 contests.
The ground attacks of both teams will largely be rendered ineffective on Sunday — everything points to the under in this game.