Jared Goff
Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120, bet365)
This prop is a great way to take advantage of the Chiefs being without Chris Jones tonight.
Goff should have a much cleaner pocket with Jones missing. The Lions QB's touchdown per attempt rate went up from 2.7% when facing pressure to 5.7% with a clean pocket.
Lions coach Dan Campbell is also likely to stay aggressive tonight at Kansas City. He'll know the Lions will need to put up plenty of points to beat the Chiefs, even if the reigning champs are without Travis Kelce.
Some of this logic stems from my bet on Goff to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns at 35-1. Only 56% of the Lions' offensive touchdowns came through the air last season (league average was 61%), and he conceded a ton of short-yardage touchdowns to Jamaal Williams. I expect Goff to see positive TD regression this season.
Kansas City is a good opponent to start this with. The Chiefs allowed a league-high 5.4% touchdown rate last season. In fact, K.C. allowed 12 of the 17 QBs it faced in the regular season to throw for multiple passing touchdowns. Three of the QBs who failed to throw for at least two were backups in Malik Willis, Bryce Perkins and Jarrett Stidham. That means 12 of 14 starting QBs cleared this total against the Chiefs last season.
I'm projecting this closer to -145 but love the upside here. I'd bet it up to -130.
This bet is available across the board at DraftKings (-120), bet365 (-120), BetMGM (-120) and FanDuel (-128).
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