Lions vs. Packers Odds & Picks: How Experts Are Betting This Spread & Over/Under For Monday Night Football
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Packers RB Aaron Jones
Betting on Monday Night Football? We have you covered with Lions vs. Packers odds and expert picks below, where our analysts reveal how they’re betting this NFC North showdown, complete with spread and over/under picks as well as a player prop bet.
Lions vs. Packers Odds & Picks
|Packers -11.5 vs. Lions|
|Over 48.5 Points|
|A.J. Dillon Over 8.5 Rush Attempts|
Raheem Palmer: Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of the worst performances of his career, completing only 30% of his passes for 133 yards with two interceptions.
Although many people will overreact to that loss and the turmoil that this Packers organization faced over the offseason with Rodgers wanting to leave, I see it as an outlier. The offense, which ranked 31st in Expected Points Added in Week 1, should easily bounce against a Lions defense that gave up 41 points and 442 yards to the 49ers in the season opener, including 8 yards per play and a whopping 11.5 yards per pass.
If the Lions didn’t struggle enough in Week 1, things got worse this week as they lost second-year cornerback Jeff Okudah for the season to an Achilles injury. This unit doesn’t have a ton of depth at corner and will be relying on rookies and replacement-level players to deal with an offense featuring Devante Adams.
Overall, the Packers are in a prime bounce-back spot. And based on their history, they should be fine considering they’re 26-13-1 (66.7%) against the spread (ATS) following a loss with Rodgers at QB, a spot in which he’s 26-13-1 ATS:
Sean Koerner: Rodgers had his worst game as a pro against the Saints in a 38-3 beat down in Week 1. Look for him to take out his frustration on the Lions in front of the whole country on Monday Night Football.
Like Raheem said above, Okudah suffered a season-ending Achilles injury, which makes the Lions’ inferior secondary that much worse.
Meanwhile, the Packers defense was also to blame for last week’s embarrassing loss, and the issues on that side of the ball may carry over into Week 2. To make matters worse, Za’Darius Smith was placed on IR due to a back injury. It’s a massive loss for a defense that was already ailing at full strength.
The Lions’ offense thrived in garbage time last week against the 49ers. I can see them doing so again here.
I’m projecting this total closer to 50 points and would bet the over up to 49.
Mike Randle: However you profile this game, it should be a comfortable Green Bay win.
The Packers opened as 10-point favorites, which the spread has now ballooned to as high as 12 points at some books. The Packers emphasized the importance of an increased workload for Dillion, to help balance the rushing load with Aaron Jones.
This line is still discounted after Green Bay’s 38-3 loss to New Orleans in Week 1.
In the likelihood of a Packers’ blowout, their offense should skew run-heavy, creating more opportunities for Dillon. The Lions’ rush defense just got blowtorched by San Francisco rookie Elijah Mitchell for 104 yards on 19 carries. Even last season, Green Bay ranked as the 11th-most run heavy team at 43.8%. Dillon equates perfectly to the role former Packer Jamaal Williams held in 2020. Prior to a Week 15 injury, Williams crested 8.5 rushing attempts in four of seven games. Against Tennessee in Week 16, Dillon himself tallied 16 carries in a game that Jones was fully healthy.
This is a 9 out of 10 rated prop by Sean Koerner in our FantasyLabs Player Prop Tool. He is projected for 9.5 carries. I feel comfortable backing this prop up to that 9.5 threshold.