Mac Jones Player Props: Expert Pick for Patriots vs Cardinals

Mac Jones Player Props: Expert Pick for Patriots vs Cardinals article feature image

Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Mac Jones.

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Mac Jones Pass Completions

PropMac Jones Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-122)
MatchupPatriots vs. Cardinals
Day, TimeMonday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Best BookFanDuel

Excluding the game against Chicago, when he got benched in the second quarter for Bailey Zappe, Mac Jones has averaged 22.6 pass completions and gone over 21 in six of seven games.

The Cardinals played man coverage at a 21.7% rate going into Week 13 (seventh lowest) and generally utilize a more zone-heavy scheme. This bodes for Jones as according to The 33rd Team, his completion percentage jumps from 51.9% (25th of 34 qualified quarterbacks, min 50 snaps) to 69.9% (ninth) when facing zone.

Quarterbacks who've played the Cardinals average 25.08 completions per game, which ranks fourth, with nine of 12 achieving at least 21 completions. Of the three who missed, Geno Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo finished with 20 in game scripts that resulted in wins.

The Cardinals love to bring pressure — they rank sixth in pass-rush win rate — which could force Jones to dump it out for short-yardage (and high percentage) targets. Patriots bell-cow back Rhamondre Stevenson has been consistent, ranking sixth in reception percentage among qualified backs (minimum 50 snaps).

The one negative is that Jakobi Meyers, who's sidelined tonight due to a concussion, has averaged 4.9 receptions. However, I don’t think it affects the prop that much, considering the Cardinals will still be without top slot cornerback Byron Murphy, who leads the team in reception percentage allowed (63%), per Pro Football Focus.

This prop category is a first for me, but this feels like the best way to attack the game given how consistent it’s been this season and how Jones fares against zone-heavy coverage. For that reason, I like his chances of going over 20.5.

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