Michael Penix Jr. NFL Draft Odds, Projected Pick

Former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is very likely to be a first rounder in today's draft, the oddsmakers have decided.

While he had been roughly 50/50 in this marketplace just a week ago, those odds have ballooned to a whopping -350 at FanDuel for a team to draft the Heisman finalist in the first round.

The benefit? The team that picks him in the first round will have a fifth-year option for the quarterback, increasing team control. As a second-round pick, a team would only have four years of guaranteed control before deciding whether Penix Jr. should be the quarterback of the future.

It's a far cry from the championship game against Michigan, when prognosticators saw on a big stage some of Penix Jr.'s failings as a quarterback.

Those flaws are primarily predicated around his durability and age. Penix Jr. would be the third-oldest first round quarterback in NFL history. And he's already tore his ACL twice, limiting his mobility a touch. That was also against college competition — paling in comparison to the speed and precision he'll face in the NFL.

This intense steam goes against our better judgment at the Action Network. My colleague and NFL expert Brandon Anderson is bullish on under 4.5 quarterbacks to be selected in the first round, which has best market odds at +390 at FanDuel. The thesis? In general, the consuming public gets bored when there's a consensus top three or top four in the sport's most valuable position.

Media types, scouts and mock drafters begin to talk themselves into the next crop of quarterbacks until draft time, while actual decision makers grade these candidates as second-round picks or worse. Think Malik Willis in 2022 (second rounder) or Will Levis last season (second round, too).

2024 NFL Draft Predictions: Bet QBs by Fading Michael Penix & Bo Nix