Saints vs Falcons Prediction, Odds | NFL Week 12 Pick
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Saints vs Falcons Odds, Prediction
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Saints vs. Falcons odds are on the move with action coming in on New Orleans, which is now favored by two points. The total is 42, but our NFL pick for this matchup is on that spread.
The Saints (5-5) lead the NFC South by a game, but the Falcons (4-6) can take first with a win. The Falcons, who enter this game on a three-game losing streak, made a big change during their bye week, going back to second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder after two games of veteran Taylor Heinicke.
Continue reading below for my New Orleans-Atlanta betting preview, which includes a Saints vs. Falcons prediction against the spread.
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Saints vs Falcons Prediction
The Falcons had a much-needed bye week on the heels of a three-game losing streak. During that bye, Arthur Smith decided to go back to Desmond Ridder at quarterback. The Falcons had previously decided to give Taylor Heinicke a shot, but he went 0-2 and had a horrific performance against the Cardinals in which he threw for just 55 yards before getting injured late in the game.
Smith hopes two weeks off will be a good reset for Ridder. On top of that, the bye week provided the young quarterback additional time to prepare for this crucial game against the Saints. Despite their losing streak, the Falcons haven’t been terrible. They have lost those three games by an average of 3.33 points and were on the road for two of them.
They'll be back home for this game and that's good news for Ridder, who is 31-1 in home starts between both his college and NFL careers. Ridder does appear to be the better option over Heinicke. Ridder seems more comfortable in the offense and adds a running component that Heinicke lacks. If Ridder can limit the turnovers, he is close to what the Falcons need at QB.
The Falcons are built as a run-first team and Bijan Robinson is finally starting to get a bigger share of the carries. That is having an immediate impact — Robinson had 22 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown last week, and combined to average over five yards per carry in the two games prior.
Bet New Orleans vs. Atlanta at FanDuel
For the Saints, it looks like Derek Carr will start. On paper, Carr is a better quarterback than Jameis Winston, but Carr has really struggled this season and is 20th amongst qualified quarterbacks when it comes to EPA+CPOE composite. That leaves him behind the likes of Jordan Love and Justin Field when it comes to overall productivity.
The Falcons defense has struggled against the pass and this is almost a spot where you may want to see what Winston could do. Winston will always take more chances than Carr and that could lead to more turnovers, but against a soft Atlanta secondary, it could also lead to more explosive plays. Carr will dink and dunk like he has all season, which will allow the Falcons to keep everything in front of them.
The Falcons have been solid against the run and should make it tough on Alvin Kamara. Atlanta ranks 15th in rush defense DVOA and should be able to match up with the Saints’ rush offense, which is 13th in rush offense DVOA. This is also a good matchup for the Falcons secondary as a poor News Orleans passing attack will be without Michael Thomas.
Defensively, the Saints will be missing cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The Falcons have a pretty solid group of skill-position players — with the likes of Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Robinson — but haven't been able capitalize due to a combination of bad quarterback play and questionable play-calling and personnel decisions.
However, with no Lattimore, this top-10 Saints pass defense will have to drop back in coverage. That'll put New Orleans' 19th-ranked rush defense in a difficult spot against the Falcons' ground game.
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Saints vs. Falcons
Betting Picks & Predictions
This seems like the perfect spot for the Falcons to get right and tie up the NFC South. I like the Falcons at +1.5 and would bet them to -1; I'd also bet the Atlanta moneyline.
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