Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 18 on Sunday, January 4.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 18 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 18.
NFL Week 18 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Saints vs. Falcons
You can call me an idiot for this, I’ll understand. I’m running the Taysom Hill TD angle back one last time.
I know he hasn’t scored in forever, and only has one TD on the season, but this is literally the last chance you may ever get to bet on Taysom to score a TD.
He’s in the final year of his contract, and when they played the Falcons last time, he saw 10 carries with two in the red zone.
Kellen Moore may also try to get favor with the team by being a players' coach and use Hill near the goal line for a proper send off.
Now, a lot of this is speculation, because again, Hill hasn’t done much this year to justify a +250 TD price.
This is also mostly a vibes/nostalgia bet since I don’t really love any other Saint now with WR Chris Olave out for the finale.
For the Falcons, I’m gonna wet my beak with a Darnell Mooney TD bet.
Mooney caught his only TD this season against the Falcons and still runs the second-most routes on the team for any WR behind Drake London.
Speaking of London, he hasn’t looked right the last two games, and still seems to be recovering from the knee injury.
Mooney has also been the Falcons best deep threat, and while QB Kirk Cousins can’t bomb it like he used to, he’s still playing indoors, so we could see a few deep shots to Mooney, who has a 13.1 aDOT.
The Saints' pass defense is bottom-six in defensive DVOA vs. the deep ball too, so that might open more possibilities for Mooney take the top off the defense for a score.
Getting a WR2 in any offense at +500 is decent value in my opinion.
Verdict: Taysom Hill +250 | Darnell Mooney +500
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Browns vs. Bengals
We finally saw WR Ja’Marr Chase score a TD for the first time in over a month last week, but if I’m picking any Bengal facing the Browns, it’s gotta be WR Tee Higgins at +170.
Higgins may be overshadowed by Chase in this offense, but he’s a bonafide WR2 with 10 TDs this season, which is the same amount he had last season, but on 20 less catches.
Higgins has proven to be worth the contract he got in the offseason, and facing a Browns team that plays man coverage and single-high safety at the highest rate in the NFL, he could go off for another 2+ TD game.
Higgins has led the Bengals in target share vs. man defenses, while also leading Cincy with five receiving TDs vs. man coverage.
The Browns side is a bit complicated because I’ve been quite vocal about my support and wagers for rookie TE Harold Fannin, but he’s dealing with a groin injury that puts his Week 18 status in doubt.
Couple that with TE David Njoku still nursing a knee injury, and we may be in a last-man-standing scenario for Browns TEs.
The reason we want the TE in this scenario is because the Bengals have been allergic to stopping TEs this season, with 16 TDs allowed (last in NFL) with the most targets, catches, and yards to the position.
So, given the TE trends, I think we go with a long shot and take TE Blake Whiteheart at +650.
Whiteheart played the most snaps of any Browns TE after Fannin went down in Week 17, and he already has one career TD.
Verdict: Tee Higgins +170 | Blake Whiteheart +650
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Colts vs. Texans
I know he’s a bit streaky, but I’m running it back with Texans rookie WR Jayden Higgins at +430 against the Colts.
Higgins scored last week against the Chargers on a huge 75-yard bomb in a matchup that was much tougher than the Colts.
Indy’s pass defense was supposed to see some improvement with CB Sauce Gardner’s arrival, but since Week 13, it’s been very hit-or-miss.
I think the Colts will likely shade the coverage to WR Nico Collins and make QB CJ Stroud spread the ball around. So, getting essentially a WR2 in Higgins at +400 or better is decent value.
I think this is a Riley Leonard spot for Colts TD scorers. He’s shown coming into the NFL that he was primarily a rushing QB at Notre Dame, and even ran for a TD against the Jaguars in mop-up duty earlier in the season after Daniel Jones went down with injury.
He ran for 17 TDs in his final year in Notre Dame, and having a RB like Jonathan Taylor near the goal line, Leonard can use play-action and call his own number.
I think it’s worth noting as well that with Daniel Jones (another similar style of QB) in the lineup this season, Dimes didn’t see TD odds above +350.
This is obviously a rookie QB in a tough matchup with a quality secondary. So, I can definitely see a scenario near the goal line where every Colts pass-catcher is covered, Leonard panics and defaults to what he knows best — and that’s scrambling.
Verdict: Riley Leonard +750 | Jayden Higgins +430
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Titans vs. Colts
I took Jaguars WR Parker Washington last week at +250, and while he didn’t score, he was awfully close.
Washington led the Jaguars in targets and receptions in Week 17, and almost caught a TD, but it was intercepted in the end zone.
That’s not enough to deter me from betting him to score again though, because he’s clearly carved out a great role in this offense.
Washington has four receiving TDs along with two kick-return TDs, and since the arrival of WR Jakobi Meyers in Week 11, Washington still leads the team in red-zone and deep targets in that span.
Now, the last time these two teams played, Meyers and TE Brenton Strange scored. So, if you want to pivot to Strange instead of Washington, I’d be ok with that, but if I’m picking between the two, Washington has my vote.
Last game of the season for the Titans and nothing to play for. That’s the time where you want to start throwing some quarterback TD bets in the mix because there’s no tomorrow for them (figuratively).
Sometimes with rookie quarterbacks like Cam Ward, they are so careful when it comes to not making mistakes or trying to ensure they don’t get hurt to finish the season. But once we get to Week 18, caution can sometimes go out the window.
Now, Cam Ward hasn’t really been a running quarterback this year with only one rushing TD, but this is a game where I could see the Titans playing fast and loose, while the Jaguars become super conservative to ensure a victory.
At +1200, in a divisional game, I’d rather take a long shot like Ward on the Titans side in this matchup.
Verdict: Cam Ward +1200 | Parker Washington +210
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Packers vs. Vikings
With the total down to 35.5, and the Packers QB situation up in the air, sportsbooks haven’t really listed TD odds for this game as of Saturday afternoon.
The one angle they have left open is the possibility of betting on Defensive/Special Teams TDs, and, frankly, that might be the only angle I like for this dumpster fire of a game.
The Packers are expected to start Clayton Tune at QB, and if that’s the case, it could get ugly in Minnesota.
For his career, Tune has three interceptions on 27 career dropbacks, while also having two fumbles on 16 career carries.
Tune hasn’t been great, and now going into a hostile environment against a defense that loves to blitz, I could see Tune getting “tuned up” this week, so Vikings D/ST TD makes sense.
On the flip side, it’s not like Vikings' QB JJ McCarthy hasn't been susceptible to turnovers thus far. He’s also playing with a fracture in his throwing hand that may lead to potential fumbles if he can’t handle the football properly.
When he played the Packers last time, he was inaccurate and threw two interceptions, and has now thrown an INT in all but one start.
The cherry on top? In McCarthy’s last outing vs. the Giants, he got strip-sacked and New York got the fumble TD.
Given the variables in play and the turnovers both of these quarterbacks seem to fall backwards into, I’d rather just bank on the defenses than the offenses in this one.
Verdict: Vikings D/ST +450 | Packers D/ST +450
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Cowboys vs. Giants
Take your pick between WR CeeDee Lamb or WR George Pickens because I expect both to have huge games against the Giants this week.
However, I’m looking at Pickens a bit more compared to Lamb for a couple of factors.
The simple one is that Pickens has longer odds. So, I’d prefer to have a higher value, but also, this is the last time Pickens can make an impression for a new contract before the offseason.
He’s obviously having a career year, but all it takes is one game for owners to potentially sour on Pickens if he dogs it or doesn’t finish his routes like he did vs. the Lions.
I think Pickens could see 8+ catches and a TD in Week 18, which would put him in an elite category of pass-catchers with 100+ receptions and 10+ TDs in 2025 like TE Trey McBride, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
These types of milestones go a long way for NFL contracts, so look for Pickens to play like millions of dollars depend on it.
I think if we’re taking a Giant this week, I’m going with QB Jaxson Dart again at +165.
I was considering a Giants' pass-catcher, but unless you want to take WR Wan’Dale Robinson at +170, I’d rather just take Dart to do what he does best — and that’s scramble with the football.
Dart scored twice last week against the Raiders, and now has nine rushing TDs on the season, which is more than QB Jalen Hurts and tied for second among all QBs with Trevor Lawrence.
With this being the final game of the season, I don’t expect the Giants to put kid gloves on Dart in the finale.
Another reason why I’m going with Dart is I don’t really love any of the options at his disposal that can take advantage of the Cowboys' poor pass defense.
Verdict: George Pickens +155 | Jaxson Dart +165
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Jets vs. Bills
With the likelihood of QB Josh Allen resting for Week 18, it’s a bit tricky to pinpoint the value on Bills TD scorers, but I think TE Jacskon Hawes is who I’d target. He’s got three TDs this season, and will likely see an increased role if/when Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox start resting.
Since I’m leaning toward the Bills resting majority of their starters, Hawes should see a decent amount of targets with Mitch Trubisky at QB.
It’s also a decent matchup for Bills TEs, as the Jets rank 30th in defensive DVOA vs. TEs with nine TDs allowed.
You could also sprinkle on a crazy long shot like TE4 Keliki Latu at +2000, but I’ll stick with Hawes to close the season.
It’s been announced that QB Brady Cook is getting the start in the Jets finale, and if that’s the case, tread carefully on Jets TD scorers this week.
Cook has thrown one TD pass in three starts, while only completing 58% of his passes and a super low aDOT.
So, betting on a Jets WR to beat the Bills secondary on a deep pass almost seems out of the question given what we’ve seen from Cook this season.
With WR Adonai Mitchell being the lone bright spot on this Jets offense, by default, we go back to him at +325.
In four appearances with Cook at QB, he leads the Jets with three end zone targets and caught the only TD.
He has also led the team in targets-per-route-run and deep targets. So, if there’s any WR that can somehow get loose on a broken coverage, it’s Mitchell.
Verdict: Jackson Hawes +425 | Adonai Mitchell +350
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Lions vs. Bears
You might think I’m trying to be a jerk when I say there’s no value in TD props for Lions-Bears, but this game is MEGA steamed with nine players listed lower than +200 to score a TD.
I get that these offenses have shown some explosiveness, but this game is still going to be in Chicago with borderline freezing temperatures.
I doubt this means both teams are going to light it up like the TD odds indicate. So, out of protest, I’m punting on this game.
If I had to bet a TD in this one, my only lean would be WR Luther Burden at +140, as my Touchdown Show co-host Sean Koerner was quite adamant that Burden still shows value at those odds.
He broke out in a huge way last week against the 49ers, and now he faces a Lions team that has allowed the second-most TDs to WRs (20), coincidentally tied with the Bears.
Verdict: Lean Luther Burden +140, but passing on TD props for this game
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Chargers vs. Broncos
With the announcement coming from Jim Harbaugh that the Chargers will sit QB Justin Herbert and most of his starters in Week 18, it could be difficult to pinpoint where the value is for Chargers TD scorers.
QB Trey Lance is likely to get the start, and we know he has rushing upside, especially facing the Broncos’ heavy man coverage unit. But I think taking a few long shots on the Chargers side is the best route, given the likelihood of most of the starters playing minimal snaps.
So, let’s throw some darts at WR Tre’ Harris (+850) and WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith and (+2000). Both rookies have scored TDs this season, and will likely see a boost in playing time with the “Big 3” of Chargers WRs resting this week.
Just like on offense, I expect Jim Harbaugh to rest some of the key defensive stars like OLB Khalil Mack and safety Derwin James, which should make the Chargers pass defense much more vulnerable.
With the Chargers already playing zone and two-high safety at top-eight rates, they may even go even more conservative to minimize explosive plays from the Broncos pass-catchers.
WR Courtland Sutton caught the TD last time these two teams faced each other and has seen a massive target spike over the last four games, with seven end zone targets, while no other Broncos' receiver has seen more than one.
It’s chalky, but very few WRs are seeing the target share and first-read target percentage like Sutton is right now.
Verdict: Courtland Sutton +195 | Tre Harris +900 | Sprinkle on KeAndre Lambert-Smith +2000
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Chiefs vs. Raiders
I know it’s a meaningless game for the Chiefs, but this should be an easier matchup for QB Chris Oladokun.
Oladokun made his first ever NFL start against arguably the toughest defense in the NFL in the Broncos — but this week, he'll face a Raiders defense that looked like they gave up nearly two months ago.
With the Chiefs, I think we keep it real simple and take TE Travis Kelce in what might be his final NFL game.
Head Coach Andy Reid has likely been getting his staff all week to scheme up ways for Kelce to get the ball near the goal line and give him a proper sendoff.
At +260, Kelce is the only Chief showing value for me in Week 18. However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge that WR Hollywood Brown has a contract incentive for one and two touchdowns scored. So, there’s the possibility the Chiefs may target him a bit more near the goal line, but I��ll stick with Kelce this week.
As of now, the Raiders have made it known they plan to play two quarterbacks in the Week 18 matchup against the Chiefs, which makes this a glorified exhibition game.
Still, if I see Aidan O’Connell on the field, that means WR Tre Tucker’s stock goes up in my book. AOC isn’t going to necessarily light it up this weekend, but I’m certain he’ll play more snaps than QB Kenny Pickett, who hasn’t shown much in his time in the NFL.
Tucker had five TDs this year and scored all three of his receiving TDs last season with O’Connell at QB.
Verdict: Travis Kelce +250 | Tre Tucker +400
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Cardinals vs. Rams
Another staple of my TD Preview each week has been Cardinals TE Trey McBride.
Back in Week 6 when QB Jacoby Brissett took over, you could still get McBride at +220 or better in some matchups to score, but then near the end of the year, we’ve started to see +110 prices, which were still showing slight value like when he faced Dallas or San Francisco.
This week, we’ve got the Rams on tap, and now his TD odds are +160 or better, which feels insane to me.
I know he didn’t score when they faced the Rams in Week 14, but he still saw nine targets with two in the end zone.
At this point, we’re seeing a pretty obvious trend of Brissett force-feeding McBride near the goal line, and with the Rams expected to play their starters, this shouldn't be a Cardinals blowout vs. a backup QB situation.
Since the Rams are expected to play their starters (at least for most of the game), we can assume with Matthew Stafford at QB, this may turn into another drubbing of the Cardinals.
If we do see another fast start from the Rams, then I want TE Davis Allen at +500. TE Terrance Ferguson got ruled out and we’ve seen Allen score some TDs this season with three on the year.
With the Cardinals ranking 31st in defensive DVOA vs. TEs with eight TDs allowed, you could run TE Colby Parkinson back again since he’s at least +250, but with both Ferguson and WR Davante Adams out, I’ll take a swing on Allen to see more routes and targets near the end zone.
Verdict: Trey McBride +170 | Davis Allen +500
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Dolphins vs. Patriots
I don’t really know what’s going on with the Patriots off the field these days, but on the field, this should be a decent matchup for WR Kyle Williams to score another TD.
WR Mack Hollins is out, and WR Stefon Diggs’s role is uncertain with some of the issues off the field. So, Williams stands to see the biggest uptick in snaps of any Patriots WR, and Dolphins secondary is it’s weakness, ranking 25th in defensive DVOA compared to seventh vs the run.
Even TE Hunter Henry is as low as +120 to score. So, with WR Kayshon Boutte trending towards a return, look for Williams to see WR2 snaps and routes, which sets up nicely for a TD at +470.
I won’t get caught on the Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle TD market again. No More!
We bet Waddle to score last week with the warning that he has an injury history and can burn you in this market. While it wasn’t his fault that he got hurt, it was ours because we didn’t listen to our own advice.
Let’s see if Greg Dulcich's recent run will translate into another TD this week. He’s finally started to get some proper playing time over the last month, and in two games with Quinn Ewers as the starter, he’s leading the team in targets-per-route-run and red-zone targets.
At 25-years-old, Dulcich could help solidify his spot as the Dolphins' TE of the future with another big game. So, I think at +400, this is a perfect spot to grab his TD prop.
Verdict: Kyle Williams +470 | Greg Dulcich +400
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Commanders vs. Eagles
With Josh Johnson at QB for the Commanders, the upside in this offense is capped, even if the Eagles rest some of their starters on defense.
The only player I’m showing a little bit of value on is WR Deebo Samuel at +360. He didn’t see many targets in Week 17 against the Cowboys, but he should see plenty of volume this week to help trigger some more contract incentives like receiving yards (93 more for $200k and 2 touchdowns for $250k).
Now, some of this is priced in. So, that’s why I’d rather just avoid taking steamed yardage props and take the Anytime TD at +360.
RB Tank Bigsby is getting a lot of Week 18 love ever since the Eagles announced they’d likely be resting most of their stars.
So, if RB Saquon Barkley is getting a rest, I want his direct replacement at +135.
Bigsby was traded during the season for this exact plan in case Barkley got hurt or they needed to use a decent RB in Week 18, and Bigsby fits that role. He only has one TD this year, but has had some moments where the Eagles let him loose and he’s made some big runs.
Even with QB Tanner McKee, I’m not sure the Eagles will regress all that much on offense because he’s looked decent in some preseason games and during mop-up duty for QB Jalen Hurts.
I expect the Eagles to still be able to move the ball with a run-focussed attack, and Bigsby will likely see the majority of the touches out of the backfield. So, at +135, let’s go chalk!
Verdict: Tank Bigsby +135 | Deebo Samuel +360 (Ladder to 2+ TDs at +3500 if you wish to chase incentives)
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