NFL Betting: Derrick Henry, Allen Robinson Headline Favorite Season-Long Player Props for 2021
Brett Carlsen/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry.
Looking for the best player prop bets for the 2021 NFL season? While we wait for the season to officially kickoff — the Cowboys and Buccaneers are getting ready for a showdown at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa — our experts break down all of their favorite season-long player props for the year.
Our Favorite NFL Player Props
Derrick Henry Under 1555.5 Rushing Yards (-130) at DraftKings
Brandon Anderson: Sorry, but this is just an absurd line.
Yes, Derrick Henry had over 2,000 rushing yards last season. Good for him.
You might think that makes him likely to put up another huge number, but counterintuitively, the opposite is actually the case. Henry has had a massive workload, especially over the last two seasons and playoffs, and everything in history tells us that the extended workload and age will likely lead to a breakdown — sooner rather than later.
Henry led the league in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in each of the past two years, but you should bet against him doing it a third straight time. Heck, Henry is already the first since LaDainian Tomlinson to lead the league in rushing in consecutive seasons. The last two guys to do it three straight times were Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith and Jim Brown.
Henry doesn’t have to lead the league to get to 1,551 yards, but it would be historic nonetheless. No player in history has ever run for 1,540+ yards in three straight seasons, like Henry would do. The extra game helps, of course, but that’s offset by the age and mileage, a fading offensive line and an offense that’s likely to be less efficient without coordinator Arthur Smith, who is now the head coach of the Falcons.
I won’t be surprised if Henry misses this target by hundreds of yards. History tells us RBs don’t last forever, and the end is coming. It could be here sooner than you think. It’s almost always a good idea to bet against someone making history.
Allen Robinson Over 1090.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at DraftKings
But even opposite Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky last season, Robinson managed to reel in 1,250 yards for the third 1,000-receiving yard season of his career.
Also, there’s finally a light at the end of the tunnel for Robinson this year after the Bears drafted Justin Fields, who is having quite the field day (pun intended) this preseason and has looked very sharp. This is great news for all of the Chicago pass-catchers.
Fields won’t get the Week 1 start, but it’s just a matter of when he gets the call in my opinion, but even Andy Dalton is an upgrade from Foles and Trubisky. Robinson should smash the over here.
Miles Sanders Under 6.5 Rush TDs at PrizePicks
Editor's Note: The line moved to 6.5 rush TDs on this pick. Chris Raybon still endorses it at PrizePicks based on his projections, but only in Flex entries rather than Power Plays.
Chris Raybon: Sanders had TDs of 82 and 74 yards last year, but for his career, he’s scored on 9-of-343 carries (2.6%). I have Sanders projected at 6.2 TDs in 2021 — 0.8 TDs less than the amount he'd need to go over.