How NFL Divisional Round Results Would Impact Super Bowl Chances According to Our Model

How NFL Divisional Round Results Would Impact Super Bowl Chances According to Our Model article feature image
Credit:

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Lombardi Trophy

  • This year's NFL Wild Card games gave us two upsets and one heart-stopping finish.
  • See how the Super Bowl 54 picture could change for every scenario in the Divisional Round.

Which team has the clearest path to wining Super Bowl 54?

The betting market thinks it’s the Baltimore Ravens, who have the best odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at +190 (via FanDuel). And our model agrees.

Lamar Jackson and Co. have the highest chance to win it all in our model at 36%, a significant margin over the San Francisco 49ers at 18.6%.

To find out how the Divisional Round could shift those odds and chances, we used our model to simulate every possible result. Let’s quickly recap the bracket and game odds, then run through our model’s findings.


Super Bowl Projections Based On Divisional Round Results

We plugged every variation of results for the following games into our model to calculate each team’s potential Super Bowl chances.

AFC

  • No. 6 Titans at No. 1 Ravens (-9.5)
  • No. 4 Texans at No. 2 Chiefs (-10)

NFC

  • No. 6 Vikings at No. 1 49ers (-7.5)
  • No. 5 Seahawks at No. 2 Packers (-4)

FanDuel is boosting the odds on the 49ers, Ravens, Chiefs and Packers all to win this weekend from +206 to +250. Bet now — PA, NJ, IN and WV only.


If All 4 Favorites Win

  • Ravens: 44.1%
  • 49ers: 27.0%
  • Chiefs: 18.4%
  • Packers: 10.6%

If 1 Underdog Wins, 3 Favorites Win

Titans Upset Ravens

  • Chiefs: 36.4%
  • 49ers: 33.9%
  • Titans: 15.9%
  • Packers: 13.9%

Texans Upset Chiefs

  • Ravens: 53.5%
  • 49ers: 28.2%
  • Packers: 11.3%
  • Texans: 7.0%

Vikings Upset 49ers

  • Ravens: 46.6%
  • Chiefs: 19.7%
  • Vikings: 17.6%
  • Packers: 16.0%

Seahawks Upset Packers

  • Ravens: 44.8%
  • 49ers: 30.0%
  • Chiefs: 18.8%
  • Seahawks: 6.4%

If 2 Favorites Lose, 2 Favorites Win

Ravens/Chiefs Lose, 49ers/Packers Win

  • 49ers: 40.8%
  • Titans: 24.3%
  • Texans: 17.5%
  • Packers: 17.4%

Ravens/49ers Lose, Chiefs/Packers Win

  • Chiefs: 39.1%
  • Vikings: 22.6%
  • Packers: 21.0%
  • Titans: 17.3%

Ravens/Packers Lose, Chiefs/49ers Win

  • 49ers: 37.7%
  • Chiefs: 37.3%
  • Titans: 16.4%
  • Seahawks: 8.7%

Chiefs/49ers Lose, Ravens/Packers Win

  • Ravens: 56.6%
  • Vikings: 18.6%
  • Packers: 17.1%
  • Texans: 7.7%

Chiefs/Packers Lose, Ravens/49ers Win

  • Ravens: 54.4%
  • 49ers: 31.4%
  • Texans: 7.3%
  • Seahawks: 7.0%

49ers/Packers Lose, Ravens/Chiefs Win

  • Ravens: 48.2%
  • Vikings: 20.8%
  • Chiefs: 20.7%
  • Seahawks: 10.3%

If 1 Favorite Wins, 3 Favorites Lose

Ravens Win, Chiefs/49ers/Packers Lose

  • Ravens: 58.5%
  • Vikings: 22.0%
  • Seahawks: 11.2%
  • Texans: 8.3%

Chiefs Win, Ravens/49ers/Packers Lose

  • Chiefs: 41.0%
  • Vikings: 26.7%
  • Titans: 18.4%
  • Seahawks: 13.9%

49ers Win, Ravens/Chiefs/Packers Lose

  • 49ers: 45.3%
  • Titans: 25.1%
  • Texans: 18.2%
  • Seahawks: 11.3%

Packers Win, Chiefs/49ers/49ers Lose

  • Vikings: 27.7%
  • Titans: 26.5%
  • Packers: 26.4%
  • Texans: 19.3%

If All 4 Favorites Are Upset

  • Vikings: 32.7%
  • Titans: 28.2%
  • Texans: 20.9%
  • Seahawks: 18.2%

Our Current Super Bowl Projections vs. Odds

Odds via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

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