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NFL Expert Picks: Cowboys-Falcons, Steelers-Jaguars, More Week 11 Bets

Nov 18, 2018 7:40 AM EST
  • The Action Network experts break down their favorite Week 11 NFL bets, including Cowboys at Falcons (-3) and Steelers at Jaguars (+5.5).
  • Plus against-the-spread and over/under picks for Texans at Redskins (+3), Titans at Colts (-1), Vikings at Bears (-2.5) and much more.

I think … we finally had a good Thursday Night Football game!

This might mark the first time all year I can’t make a snarky comment about the poor quality of the Thursday night game. Refreshing.

Hopefully that’s a good omen for the rest of the Week 11 NFL slate, which has plenty of interesting storylines, including:

  • What will ultimately happen at quarterback in Baltimore on Sunday? And can head coach John Harbaugh improve to 9-2 against the spread (ATS) after a bye?
  • Will the Jaguars (+5.5) finally end their against the spread drought, or will the Steelers keep their streak alive?
  • How many points will the Rams and Chiefs combine to score in a game that features the highest over/under (63)  in NFL history?

Our staff has angles on a number of the most highly-anticipated matchups, plus valuable betting insight into the rest of Week 12’s slate.

We actually have a consensus on Cowboys at Falcons (-3), Steelers at Jaguars (+5.5), and the Sunday Night Football NFC North showdown featuring Vikings at  Bears (-2.5). You will also find a prop for that Vikings-Bears battle for first place.

For even more in-depth analysis, check out our betting guides for every single game. We will also have a separate column with our favorite staff bets for the highly-anticipated Monday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Rams.

After a brutal week (thanks, Bengals), our staff picks now sit at 79-84-12 (48.5%) for the season. Let’s bounce back with our 15 favorite bets for Week 12, which can hopefully help you find a winner or two you otherwise wouldn’t have. Stuckey


>> All odds pulled from 5Dimes overnight on Thursday, so line variations are possible. Download The Action Network app to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


Sean Koerner: Jaguars +5.5 (vs. Steelers)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

This line appears to be a trap in an attempt to catch the public overreacting to two teams going in opposite directions.

After the 52-21 beatdown the Steelers put on the Panthers on national TV last Thursday, the Steelers have officially entered the Super Bowl contender conversation.

Taking them at -5.5 this week seems like a no-brainer — if only sports betting were that easy.

My updated power ratings have this closer to Steelers -3.5. The point of a sportsbook’s line is to try to split the action evenly in most cases, so while I would agree that -3.5 would be hammered to oblivion, I think it’s a better actual line.

The Jaguars still have one of the best defensive units in the NFL and should get cornerback A.J. Bouye back this week.

Leonard Fournette returned last week and seemed pretty close to 100%. Despite “good” Bortles having shown up the past couple of weeks, having Fournette back will allow the Jaguars to hide their volatile quarterback and attempt to win on the back of their defense.

Take the points.

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OPEN
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# BETS
56.5
-3.5
53
-3.5
-6.5
42.5
-6
41.5
44.5
-4
45.5
-3
44
-3
43.5
-2.5
47.5
-8.5
47
-8
46.5
-5
45
-5.5
38
PK
38
-2.5
46.5
-3.5
46
-3
44
-9
44
-9
44
-9.5
44
-8
47
-3
47
-2.5
36
-8.5
36
-7
-5.5
44.5
-5.5
45.5
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--
--
54.5
-9.5
54
-9
-7
54
-6.5
51.5

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