NFL Expert Picks: Cowboys-Falcons, Steelers-Jaguars, More Week 11 Bets

I think … we finally had a good Thursday Night Football game!

This might mark the first time all year I can't make a snarky comment about the poor quality of the Thursday night game. Refreshing.

Hopefully that's a good omen for the rest of the Week 11 NFL slate, which has plenty of interesting storylines, including:

• What will ultimately happen at quarterback in Baltimore on Sunday? And can head coach John Harbaugh improve to 9-2 against the spread (ATS) after a bye?
• Will the Jaguars (+5.5) finally end their against the spread drought, or will the Steelers keep their streak alive?
• How many points will the Rams and Chiefs combine to score in a game that features the highest over/under (63)  in NFL history?

Our staff has angles on a number of the most highly-anticipated matchups, plus valuable betting insight into the rest of Week 12's slate.

We actually have a consensus on Cowboys at Falcons (-3), Steelers at Jaguars (+5.5), and the Sunday Night Football NFC North showdown featuring Vikings at  Bears (-2.5). You will also find a prop for that Vikings-Bears battle for first place.

For even more in-depth analysis, check out our betting guides for every single game. We will also have a separate column with our favorite staff bets for the highly-anticipated Monday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Rams.

After a brutal week (thanks, Bengals), our staff picks now sit at 79-84-12 (48.5%) for the season. Let's bounce back with our 15 favorite bets for Week 12, which can hopefully help you find a winner or two you otherwise wouldn't have.— Stuckey

>> All odds pulled overnight on Thursday, so line variations are possible. Download The Action Network app to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.

Sean Koerner: Jaguars +5.5 (vs. Steelers)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

This line appears to be a trap in an attempt to catch the public overreacting to two teams going in opposite directions.

After the 52-21 beatdown the Steelers put on the Panthers on national TV last Thursday, the Steelers have officially entered the Super Bowl contender conversation.

Taking them at -5.5 this week seems like a no-brainer — if only sports betting were that easy.

My updated power ratings have this closer to Steelers -3.5. The point of a sportsbook’s line is to try to split the action evenly in most cases, so while I would agree that -3.5 would be hammered to oblivion, I think it’s a better actual line.

The Jaguars still have one of the best defensive units in the NFL and should get cornerback A.J. Bouye back this week.

Leonard Fournette returned last week and seemed pretty close to 100%. Despite “good” Bortles having shown up the past couple of weeks, having Fournette back will allow the Jaguars to hide their volatile quarterback and attempt to win on the back of their defense.

Take the points.

Danny Donahue: Jaguars +5.5 (vs. Steelers)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

I agree with Sean here.

The Jaguars' last win came all the way back on Sep. 30 against the lowly Jets. Oddly enough, that happens to be the same date on which the Steelers suffered their last loss. Since then, the Steelers have outscored their opponents 177-93, easily covering all of their spreads. Meanwhile, the Jags have gone 0-4-1 ATS and have been outscored 143-72.

While it may not feel comfortable, it's actually been profitable to fade the streaking team and put your money behind the loser.

• Since 2005, fading teams that hold an ATS cover margin average of at least five points after Week 9 (as they Steelers do) has produced an ATS record of 199-152-10 (56.7%).
• Using the same theory, teams holding a cover margin of at least negative five points after Week 9 (like the Jags) have gone 191-166-6 (53.5%) ATS since 2005.

And on the rare occasion that two teams fitting the two systems above meet, the struggling team has gone 41-12-1 (77.4%) ATS.

Matthew Freedman: Steelers-Jaguars Under 47

1 p.m. ET on CBS

Since 2014, when wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell kicked off the golden age of scoring in Pittsburgh with the first of their All-Pro campaigns, the Steelers have have been great at Heinz Field and horribly subpar on the road.

Over the past four-plus years, Steelers' away games have a 10-26 over/under record — good for a 41.8% return on investment for under bettors (per Bet Labs). In fact, the Steelers have been the most profitable road team for under bettors in that time, churning out a winning season each year during this span.

The Jags are still more than capable on defense, especially with Bouye's expected return. I’d be comfortable betting this down to 45.

Ken Barkley: Buccaneers +120 (at Giants)

1 p.m. ET on FOX 

Tampa and the Giants are definitely two teams whose perception has been impacted by last week’s results.

But, the more you dig, the Bucs' loss at home to the Redskins was as much of a mirage as any result this season. Tampa thoroughly out-gained Washington and dominated in yards per play.  The Bucs just had hideous turnovers, which caused the score to swing the other way. As a result, Tampa became the first team in NFL history with 500 or more yards of offense to score three or fewer points, per Pro Football Reference.

That’s great, because it means the Bucs may be a little undervalued here. They figure to be able to move the ball just as easily on the G-Men.

Meanwhile, the Giants get a win Monday night over a terrible San Francisco team and now travel cross-country back home on a short week to get ready for a Sunday 1 p.m. ET start.

I finally get to do something I’ve only dreamed about all season: betting against Eli Manning.

Ian Hartitz: Falcons -3 (vs. Cowboys)

1 p.m. ET on FOX

The Cowboys are coming off their best win of the season on the road in Philadelphia, while the Falcons just lost to the Cleveland freaking Browns.

Recency bias aside, it’s curious that a Cowboys team with injuries to each of its three critically acclaimed offensive linemen is getting just three points on the road.

Julio Jones is positioned for a massive game against the Cowboys defense ranked 26th in pass DVOA (especially if Byron Jones doesn't shadow).

The potential absence of Tyron Smith on the offensive line would also be a concern for the Cowboys.

Regardless, they're overvalued at this number after earning their biggest win of the season.

Geoff Schwartz: Falcons -3 (vs. Cowboys)

1 p.m. ET on FOX

Plain and simple here. I don’t trust Dallas enough to win on the road for a second straight week, especially on a short week. The Cowboys have yet to show the ability to play well in back-to-back weeks. They have generally followed up a win by laying an egg.

Meanwhile, after two straight road games, the Falcons return home, where they have scored over 30 points in three of their four tries. That spells trouble for a Dallas team that hadn't scored over 17 on the road before last Sunday night in Philly.

Give me the high powered offense in Atlanta over the excellent defense of the Cowboys.

Peter Jennings: Falcons -3 (vs. Cowboys)

1 p.m. ET on FOX

Not much more for me to say that hasn't been said. Good matchup and spot for Atlanta here.

Travis Reed: Redskins +3 (vs. Texans)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

The Texans have won six games in a row, but that winning streak is deceiving. Those six teams have a combined 22-34 record — and none of the six have a winning record.

Now, that’s not to say that the Redskins’ 6-3 record isn’t also deceiving; they have a point differential of plus-one through nine games. I just can’t justify Houston as six points better than Washington on a neutral field, which this line implies.

I’ll take the home dog here.

Stuckey: Redskins-Texans Under 42.5

1 p.m. ET on CBS

Pure and simple: I think this game will be dominated by both defensive fronts.

The Texans' offensive line has been an issue all season long. Deshaun Watson has been pressured on 41.3% or his dropbacks — the highest rate in the NFL.

The Redskins should have similar issues up front, as their offensive line is absolutely depleted. J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus should live in the backfield all day.

We can rely on Alex Smith to avoid mindless turnovers under pressure — he ranks fifth all-time in career interception rate. Watson has also been better in this department this season, with a 2.5% interception rate. In fact, the Texans haven’t turned the ball over in their last three games.

In a battle of two teams that sit in the top 10 in rushing attempts per game, expect the clock to move swiftly throughout. I’m not sure how either gets to 20 without flukes.

Chris Raybon: Colts -1 (vs. Titans)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

This line opened at Colts -3 but has been bet down to -1, presumably because the public just witnessed the Titans topple two of its darlings, the Cowboys and Patriots.

There was no value on the Colts at open — our power ratings project the true spread at Colts -2.5 — but give me the team playing at home with better quarterback to win the game all day

Mark Gallant: Titans-Colts Under 50.5

1 p.m. ET on CBS

Later on in the season, unders in divisional games have been rather profitable. Between Weeks 9-16 ( I exclude Week 17 for obvious reasons), divisional game unders have hit at a 54.7% clip since 2005. And the higher, the better:

• 40 or higher: 57.6%, average cover margin of 1.5
• 44 or higher: 60.6%, average cover margin of 2.7
• 47 or higher: 63.5%, average cover margin of 3.4
• 50 or higher: 68.4%, average cover margin of 4.4

This game is indoors and the Titans’ offense looked much better vs. the Pats than it has in a while, but these teams know each other well. I think the defenses should have the upper hand, which is what the above trend speaks to.

John Ewing: Raiders +5.5 (at Cardinals)

4:05  p.m. ET on CBS

Oakland is bad, and bettors know it.

The Raiders are 2-7 against the spread, which helps explain why 66% of spread tickets are on the 5-3-1 Cardinals. But bad ATS teams have been profitable against good ATS teams.

Since 2003, teams that have covered the spread in 30% or less of games, like the Raiders, have gone 244-187-14 (57%) ATS when playing an opponent that has covered 60% or more of their games, like the Cardinals.

The Action Network's NFL simulations have Arizona winning by 2.1 points on average. Oakland is undervalued in Week 11.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

BlackJack Fletcher: Vikings +120 (at Bears)

8:20 pm ET on NBC

I love this game.

People are exceptionally high on the Bears right now — and for good reason. They're 6-3 and lead the NFC North as Thanksgiving Day approaches. Mitchell Trubisky has played well at times, particularly of late, and the defense has been largely outstanding.

There's real hope in Chicago.

But if we dig a little deeper, we see that the Bears have wins against the Seahawks, Cardinals, Bills, Lions, Buccaneers and Jets. That's not super impressive.

The Vikings have a more talented offense, with Kirk Cousins and his impressive array of weapons (Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph). They're also coming off a bye, giving them extra time to prepare. This is a critical matchup for control of the division as we head into the home stretch of the regular season.

I think the more experienced team will the job done here. The youth and inexperience of the Bears will show through.

If you want the points, by all means, take 'em. I think Minnesota wins this outright.

Collin Wilson: Vikings +2.5 (at Bears)

8:20 pm ET on NBC

Can we all chill on the Bears love?

Yes, they have an impressive 6-3 record, but please take a closer look at their six wins:

1. vs. Seahawks (5-5)
2. at Cardinals (2-7)
3. vs. Bucs (3-6)
4. vs. Jets (3-7)
5. at Bills (3-7)
6. vs. Lions (3-6)

Not one of those six teams has a winning record, and they have combined to go 19-38 on the season. Don't forget that this Bears team had lost 10 straight in the division before last weekend.

Evan Abrams: Kirk Cousins Under 285.5 Passing Yards (-110)

8:20 pm ET on NBC

This is a heck of a large number of passing yards on the road in Soldier Field against a ball-hawking Bears defense — especially with Kirk Cousins’ history in frigid temperatures (0 touchdowns, four interceptions, 5.6 yards per attempt, 12.5 points per game).

Through the first five weeks of the season, Cousins averaged 337.6 passing yards per game, but that number has dipped to just under 250 over his last four games.

On the road this season, Cousins has accumulated most of his yardage in the second half of games (6.6 yards per attempt in the first half, 9.7 in the second half). That may get difficult if the winds pick up and the temperature drops as the game progresses.

The Bears have allowed the 12th-fewest passing yards this season and only allow 6.8 yards per attempt, which ranks third in the NFL. In their nine games this season, the Bears have allowed 300 passing yards just twice: at Lambeau Field in Week 1 and in overtime in Miami.

Per Football Outsiders, the Bears have the fourth-best pass defense in the league. More importantly, they rank first in the NFL in “Weighted Defense,” which adjusts the numbers so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team is playing in more recent games.

I firmly believe passing yards will be a commodity in this contest, so I will roll with the under on Cousins here.

Editor’s note: The opinions on these games are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.