NFL Interception Props Week 11: INT Bets for Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert
Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyler Murray.
Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you'd be 62-55 for +20.1U thus far.
This comes off last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5U. We can thank Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings — he finished 2022 at +8.6U for INT props (league leader) and he threw an interception in five of six games when listed at plus-money.
Here are two quarterbacks I’m betting on throw an interception in NFL Week 11:
Chargers vs. Packers
The last time I was bullish on Herbert to throw an interception was on Monday Night Football against the Jets. He had no picks, but he easily had his worst passing game of the season with only 136 yards and no touchdowns.
Now we have Herbert on the road again in the cold confines of Lambeau Field, where it’s supposed to be around 45 degrees. While that may not seem cold to most, in 11 outdoor games from November onward, Herbert has thrown an INT in seven of them. It's not the main reason to bet this prop, but it's worth noting as Herbert has typically played in warmer climates for the majority of his career.
The Packers defense is a bit underrated and that’s mainly because of key injuries. They’ve allowed the fewest passing TDs this season and are fifth in passing yards allowed per game in spite of the absences. Without All-Pro CB Jaire Alexander for nearly half the season, along with leading tackler LB Quay Walker for stretches, the defense expectedly struggled in spots. Both are on track to play on Sunday, which is huge for this bet. In the five games Alexander has played, the opposing QB threw an interception in four of them.
I say this a lot when betting these props, but in order to cash an INT bet, the QB has to throw the ball. Seems simple enough, but that’s why Herbert is a great candidate — he’s fourth in the NFL in passing attempts per game.
His only game below 30 pass attempts was Week 4 against the Raiders when he broke his finger. I had this at +120 expected odds so at +150, I’ll take a swing.
Cardinals vs. Texans
Like a lot of people who watch football regularly, my first reaction to last week’s Cardinals-Falcons game was, “KYLER IS BACK!”
But after rewatching the game and diving deeper into the play-by-play, I’ve come to realize Murray isn’t quite all the way back. He looked rusty in some spots and wasn't on the same page with his receivers. He only completed 52% of his passes, threw an interception and was 2-for-9 on third down. While rust is a factor here, there's also a lack of offensive talent on Arizona's roster.
I love Murray's comeback story and spectacular runs, but we can’t gloss over the fact that he’s thrown an interception in 72% of his career games. You can say I’m cherry-picking stats by including his rookie season, but for this exercise, if you exclude just his rookie season and only used from Year 2 onward, he’s still thrown an INT in 70% of his starts.
Part of the reason why we’re getting -115 instead of -130 is because the Cardinals won last week. Had they lost, we’d likely see something closer to -130. Now Murray has to face an improving Texans defense that forced two picks against Joe Burrow in Week 10.
Sidenote: I’m also high on Murray to score and I am not scared of playing both the INT and Anytime TD prop. Murray has run for a touchdown in 21 regular season games; he's thrown an interception in 16 of those games (76%).
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