NFL Live Betting Week 13: How We’re Live Betting Thursday Night Football

For the second week in a row, both the Cowboys and Seahawks are playing on Thursday. Last week, Dallas demolished Washington 45-10 on Thanksgiving, while Seattle couldn't get anything going offensively in their loss to the 49ers.

Both games gave us a taste of how these teams prefer to play in the game's likeliest scenario — an easy win for the Cowboys — which gives us plenty of information on how to approach live betting this one.

NFL Live Betting for Thursday Night Football

Seahawks at Cowboys: All About Timing — LIVE BET MADE, Over 58.5 (-114, FanDuel)

The middle plan didn't work out thanks to the Seahawks offense exploding early, leading to a 20-14 Cowboys lead with 90 seconds left in the half. This game should be closer however, with Seattle missing a relatively short 42 yard field goal. We're going to jump on the over now in a six point game, since Seattle has a chance to go two for one getting the ball after halftime. If they score on either drive, Dallas will continue to attack well into the second half. The best line is over 58.5, -114 at FanDuel.

Early in the year, Dallas was playing like it was the glory days of Emmitt Smith — pound the rock behind a top-tier offensive line, control the clock, and rely on their strong defense to close out games.

However, a couple of bad losses when the running game stalled led them to adapt, becoming one of the most aggressive, pass-centric teams in the NFL over the last month-plus. Four of their past five games have been wins by 21 or more points, with only a loss to the Eagles wavering from that script.

Seattle takes an opposite approach. As has been the case through the majority of Pete Carroll's tenure, they try to keep things close and limit mistakes for the bulk of the game, before pulling out late wins. Their last four wins have a combined margin of victory of 18 points, less than any one of the Cowboys' victories.

With Dallas favored by nine, the likeliest scenario is more "typical Cowboys win" than "typical Seahawks win." While on paper that doesn't do much for the pace of play — about half a second faster than average — that doesn't tell the full story. Dallas tends to ease up in the fourth quarter of their blowout wins, with Dak Prescott and the starters frequently getting some or all of the period off.

That doesn't mean they can't continue to score — they've frustratingly put up points through their backups and defense — but it does lower the odds. Especially considering how inefficient their run game has been this season. Therefore, if Dallas controls this one, we'll be looking to bet the live under — but timing it with an elevated number AND Dallas easing up will be the key.

On the other hand, should Seattle keep things close, this is an obvious over situation. We know Dallas is going to stay aggressive until they're up roughly three scores. It's also likely that this one is close due to the Cowboys' offense sputtering more than Seattle getting aggressive early, especially considering how good the Cowboys are defensively.

This again comes down to timing. We're looking for the pregame total of 47.5 to come down some, while trying to spot when the Cowboys come alive offensively.

It's also important to note that these aren't mutually exclusive picks. The dream scenario is a slow start early where we can jump on an over in the low 40s, followed by a quarter or two of Dallas domination. From there, we can hopefully get a live under at least a touchdown higher, while trying to catch the middle. Stay tuned throughout the game as we try to hit both sides of this one.

Did you know legal betting is coming to the Tar Heel State? North Carolina sports betting is coming online in 2024, so you’ll be able to bet wager legally at major sportsbooks in NC.

How We Approach Live Betting in General

The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.

The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.

Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.

Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.