Packers vs. Vikings Odds, Predictions, Picks: Target the Over/Under In This NFC North Rivalry For NFL Week 11
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.
- Looking for the latest Packers vs. Vikings odds? We've outlined the spread and over/under in our preview for this Week 11 NFL matchup below.
- With the over/under still as high as 48 points, find out which side of the total our analyst thinks is worth betting.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
The first meeting between this season’s top teams in the NFC North takes place in Minnesota, with the visiting Packers as slight favorites.
This game looks to be the quintessential “black and blue” division contest. Both team’s feature top-12 defenses while passing the ball at relatively low rates. However, they both also feature explosive offensive pieces who are capable of turning this game into a shootout.
Will this game be a slugfest, or will explosive passing offenses dominate this game?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Packers vs. Vikings Injury Report
- RB Aaron Jones (knee): Out
- WR Malik Taylor (abdomen): Out
- OT David Bakhtiari (knee): Out
- WR Allen Lazard (shoulder): Doubtful
- LB Rashan Gary (elbow): Questionable
- DL Kingsley Keke (concussion): Questionable
- G Wyatt Davis (ankle): Out
- CB Bashaud Breeland (groin): Questionable
Packers vs. Vikings Matchup
|Packers Offense||DVOA Rank||Vikings Defense|
|Packers Defense||DVOA Rank||Vikings Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
No Jones, No Problem For Packers?
While this game on paper features the division’s two top teams, in reality it’s the Packers followed by everyone else. Green Bay has a commanding three-and-a-half-game lead over the second-place Vikings and can all but wrap up the division with a Week 11 win.
Aaron Rodgers and the passing offense have been outstanding for the Packers this year, outside of a few bumps in the road. Green Bay’s passing attack ranks highly despite Rodgers missing a game and playing very poorly in two. Not coincidentally, those two poor games were Week 1, after Rodgers sat out all offseason activities before training camp, and Week 10, following his return from the COVID-19 list and limited practice time.
The run game is drawing the headlines this week for Green Bay with starter Aaron Jones set to miss a game or two. However, backup AJ Dillon should serve as a capable replacement.
Dillon has handled roughly 35% of the Packers’ RB touches. His 4.3 yards per carry is just 0.1 less than Jones. Dillon has been more effective as a receiver as well, boasting a higher catch rate and yards-per-reception mark on the year. All in all, don’t expect much of a drop off this week in the Green Bay backfield.
Much like the offense, the Packers defense has excelled against the pass this season. Green Bay is tied with Buffalo for the second-best yards per pass attempt allowed in the NFL and can make a big play or two. The Packers defense ranks in the top 10 in both sacks and takeaways per game.
Green Bay’s run defense, though, is a bit of a liability. It’s 24th in DVOA and bottom five in yards per rushing attempt allowed, which could be a problem against Dalvin Cook and the Vikings. If this game remains close –or the Packers fall behind — Minnesota could control the ball and the clock with its rushing attack. The Packers have had mostly positive game scripts on the season but could struggle if that isn’t the case here.
Vikings Want Cook to Start … Cooking
It’s hard to nail down the Vikings offensively. On the one hand, they’ve been far more effective throwing the ball this season, which is clear based on their DVOA rankings. But they clearly want to be a run-first team.
Minnesota’s pass rate is 16th, clearly middle of the road. However, when you account for game scripts, the Vikings are in the bottom 10 of pass rate vs. expectation. It’s hard to say if they’d be more effective if they moved toward a more aerial approach, but is their passing efficiency due to setting up the pass game with rushing?
Regardless of what they should do, it’s safe to say the Vikings want to run their offense through Cook, not Kirk Cousins. Fortunately for Minnesota, that’s the road of least resistance against the Packers. Where this game becomes interesting is if and when the Vikings have to abandon that strategy to chase points.
Defensively, the Vikings profile similar to their competition this week. Like the Packers, they’re far better at defending the pass than the run, which is probably optimal in today’s NFL. Passing the ball is so much more efficient on a per-play basis, we’d prefer to incentivize our opponents to run as much as possible.
Where this could get them in trouble is if they fall behind, though. Allowing a Packers team that ranks fourth in time of possession to control the game on the ground is not a recipe for a comeback. The Vikings need to get on the board early to have a chance here.
NFL Pick: Packers vs. Vikings
On the season, these teams combine to score an average of 46.2 points per game. These teams combine to allow an average of 41.4 points per game. Finally, these teams combine to possess the ball for 62:21 per game, meaning over two minutes of time will be “lost” by the offenses compared to their average game.
Yet with all of that, this game has as high as a 47.5 point total at several books (see real-time NFL odds here).
I certainly see the scenarios in which this goes over. Namely, a quick Vikings score or two leading to Green Bay’s passing attack opening it up.
However, neither I nor the spread believe that to be the more likely scenario. Any other game script and you end up with two teams controlling the ball on the ground in a slow-paced battle.
While this line was as high as 49.5 earlier in the week, it’s still too high at 47.5. I’d prefer to give out this pick at the higher number, but it still has value as it stands now. The median number for this game is probably about 45. I’d bet it down to 47, but be sure to shop around using the best number with our odds tool.
Pick: Under 47.5 | Bet to: 47
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