Giants vs. Dolphins Odds, NFL Predictions, Picks: How To Find Value On This Week 13 Market Overreaction
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Glennon.
- Giants vs. Dolphins odds moved multiple points after news broke that Daniel Jones was ruled out, making New York a 6- to 6.5-point underdog.
- Find out why our analyst believes the market overreacted to the absence of Jones as he breaks down his predictions and picks below.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
The Miami Dolphins (5-7) are on a roll, having won four games in a row to climb back into the AFC playoff picture. Miami has overcome several injuries as a result of its strong defense and timely offense.
The New York Giants (4-7), meanwhile, have only won one game away from the Meadowlands this season, but they’ve been much more competitive than their record indicates. New York has battled through a difficult schedule, with its last four losses coming to the Cowboys, Rams, Chiefs and Buccaneers. Those four teams have a combined record of 30-15.
With the news that Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is now out with a neck injury, the spread has ballooned from Miami -3 to as high as Miami -6.5.
Even with the red-hot Dolphins playing at home, is Miami now laying too many points to the Giants?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Giants vs. Dolphins Injury Report
- QB Daniel Jones (neck): Out
- TE Kaden Smith (knee): Out
- LB Trent Harris (ankle): Out
- CB Adoree Jackson (quad): Out
- WR Sterling Shepard (quad): Doubtful
- WR Kadarius Toney (quad): Doubtful
- WR John Ross (quad): Questionable
- TE Kyle Rudolph (ankle): Questionable
- FB Cullen Gillaspia (calf): Questionable
- RB Phillip Lindsay (ankle): Doubtful
- TE Adam Shaheen (knee): Doubtful
- CB Trill Williams (hamstring): Doubtful
- S Brandon Jones (ankle): Questionable
- LB Jaelan Phillips (hip): Questionable
Giants vs. Dolphins Matchup
|Giants Offense||DVOA Rank||Dolphins Defense|
|Giants Defense||DVOA Rank||Dolphins Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
How Valuable is Jones to Giants?
I am baffled as to why Jones is worth that much movement. The former first-round pick has not played well this season, failing to throw for more than 203 yards in any of his past five games. In two of those games, he threw for fewer than 170 total yards.
Jones’ mobility (his hallmark) has also been limited, with 17 or fewer rushing yards in five of his past seven games. He simply has not been a good NFL quarterback this season, potentially making his absence a bonus.
New York still has running back Saquon Barkley, who has the ability to wreck any game by himself. Despite battling injuries all season, Barkley still has two top-10 running back performances, including the overall RB2 game on the road against an elite New Orleans run defense.
The Giants defense has been strong all year, ranking seventh in pass defense DVOA. The unit has also played well lately, holding their last four non-Tampa Bay Buccaneers opponents to an average of 11.5 points.
New York produced two sacks and one fumble recovery at Kansas City, only losing 20-17. If the Giants can produce that performance at Arrowhead Stadium, they certainly can keep this game close in Miami.
Dolphins Enter Game on Big Winning Streak
The Dolphins offense struggles to run the ball and will prefer to attack through the air with rookie Jaylen Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki, but that will go directly against the strength of New York’s defense.
Prior to its current four-game winning streak, Miami had lost seven straight games. Outside of a Thursday Night Football win over Baltimore, the Dolphins’ three other wins have come against Houston, the Jets and Carolina. All three of those teams rank substantially worse than the Giants in team DVOA. The Giants are No. 23 overall, three spots better than even Miami.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has produced two solid games in a row, with a completion percentage of 84.4% between those outings. Tagovailoa’s average yards per attempt on the season (7.3), though, is still just 17th among all quarterbacks.
The Dolphins are not an explosive team and will need to force Giants turnovers to cover this number. While their passing attack has excelled the last few weeks, I still think the number is too high for an overinflated Miami team.
Giants vs. Dolphins Predictions, Picks
I project this to be a closer game than most think and will grab the points with the visitor Giants. I don’t believe the downgrade to Mike Glennon from Daniel Jones is worth the substantial line movement, and I expect some regression to the mean with the Dolphins’ performance.
The Giants fit into a lucrative betting trend this season. Road underdogs are covering at a 62% (64-40-1) rate this season. I’ll grab a live road underdog with an inflated line and low-scoring total.
I would bet this game down to 5.5, but I expect to see it rise even further.
Pick: Giants +6 | Bet to: +5.5
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