- The Action Network experts break down their favorite NFL bets for Week 7, including the Giants-Falcons matchup on Monday Night Football.
- Find out what side our staff is on for the Patriots-Bears and Redskins-Cowboys matchups on Sunday.
- Plus against-the-spread and over/under picks for Saints-Ravens, Rams-49ers and more.
I think Josh Rosen just turned it over again.
At least we don’t have to worry about the Arizona Cardinals accidentally stumbling onto RedZone this Sunday.
With another ugly Thursday Night Football matchup in the books, we can focus on more intriguing Week 7 storylines, including:
- Will the Ravens (-2.5) or Saints get their fifth win of the season in a classic battle of elite defense vs. elite offense in Charm City?
- After a pretty poor effort against Brock Osweiler and the Dolphins, can the Bears defense bounce back against Tom Brady and the Patriots (-3)?
- How will the horrid Bills offense look with 35-year-old Derek Anderson under center against the 1-5 Colts (-7)?
- Will the Rams (-9.5) get a win in San Francisco to remain the lone undefeated NFL team?
- Can the Chiefs (-5.5) improve to an absurd 7-0 against the spread on Sunday night against the Bengals?
In case you’re wondering, the best ATS start to a season since 1980 came in 2011, when the 49ers started 9-0-1 ATS. That streak ended against the Ravens in the first NFL game to feature two brothers as opposing head coaches.
Our staff has a few smart takes on how some of the aforementioned games will play out, in addition to valuable betting insight and angles into the rest of the Week 7 slate.
We have consensus agreements on Patriots-Bears and Cowboys-Redskins, and we’ll close with a side and a prop for the New York Giants-Atlanta Falcons Monday Night Football matchup.
For even more in-depth analysis, make sure to check out our betting guides for every single game this upcoming weekend.
>> All odds pulled from 5Dimes overnight on Thursday, so line variations are possible. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
ALARM CLOCK ACTION
Travis Reed: Titans +6.5 (vs. Chargers in London)
9:30 a.m. ET on CBS
The Titans are fresh off a 21-0 blowout loss to the Ravens in which Tennessee simply couldn’t move the ball, finishing with only 106 total yards. The Titans offensive line also gave up more sacks (11) than Marcus Mariota had completions (10).
But in the NFL, a team is never as bad (or as good) as it looked the week before.
This line is too inflated. Start your Sunday by buying low on the Titans across the pond.
John Ewing: Titans +6.5 (vs. Chargers in London)
The Titans scored zero points last week, which is really saying something in a season in which teams are averaging 24.1 points per game — on pace for an NFL record.
Since 2003, teams that scored fewer than 10 points the previous week have gone 394-337-15 (54%) ATS in their next game.
If those same teams, coming off a bad offensive game, are getting little public support it has been even more profitable to buy low on them, as the spreads are likely inflated.
Less than 30% of spread tickets are on Mariota & Co. as of writing (see live data here).
EARLY AFTERNOON ACTION
Sean Koerner: Bears +3 (vs. Patriots)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
I have the fair line on this game at Patriots -2, but the more I look into the matchup, the more I love taking the points here.
We saw how much the sluggish Patriots defense struggled to contain speedsters Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt in Week 6. This week, head coach Matt Nagy and the Bears (my new band name) will likely scheme to use Taylor Gabriel and Tarik Cohen in a similar fashion to attack New England’s weakness on defense.
While Chicago’s offense might be a poor man’s version of the Chiefs, the Bears defense is arguably the top unit in the NFL.
Look for Chicago to put a ton of pressure on Tom Brady and sneak away with a win.
Stuckey: Bears +3 (vs. Patriots)
Count me in on #BearDown, as well. I took +3.5 earlier this week (which you know if you have the app), but would certainly still play this at +3.
The Bears have the personnel and scheme required to beat this Patriots team. Sean touched on some of the matchup advantages Chicago has on offense that can exploit New England’s weakness at linebacker.
The Bears can also:
- Generate pressure (No. 3 in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate)
- Force turnovers (No. 1 in turnovers forced per game)
- Defend in space (No. 1 in Football Outsider’s pass defense DVOA)
- Control clock (top five in time of possession and third-down conversion percentage)
Expect an angry and inspired effort from Chicago after a flat effort in Miami. I think the Bears pull off the minor upset.