The NFL Playoffs have reached the Divisional Round.
Josh Allen and the Bills kick off the weekend of playoff action in Denver to take on the AFC-1-seed Broncos in a rematch from last year's Wild Card Round. That game will be followed by an NFC West rubber match between the 49ers and Seahawks.
Drake Maye and the upstart Patriots take on the tough test that is the Texans defense in the first game on Sunday, followed by a blockbuster matchup between the Rams and Bears.
Below, you can find my NFL Divisional Round predictions.
NFL Predictions — Divisional Round
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Bills vs Broncos |
| 49ers vs Seahawks |
| Texans vs Patriots |
| Rams vs Bears |
Bills vs Broncos
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 46 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 46 -110o / -110u | -115 |
The Bills were incredibly fortunate to escape with a victory last week. I understand they entered as underdogs to the Jaguars, but their performance was far from encouraging.
Josh Allen put on his cape once again and lifted up a porous defense and a lifeless offense, but can we expect him to do that week in and week out?
It's fair to wonder how much longer Buffalo will survive if it can't recapture its run game, and last week things looked bleak. The Bills did go up against the fourth-best run defense by DVOA, but after the season James Cook had you'd expect more than just 46 yards on 15 carries. Considering there was an 11-yard scamper in there, too, it may have been even worse than it looked.
Now, I don't know about you, but I don't think you want to go into a game against the Broncos with any questions offensively, particularly if you've got a defense with issues.
The Bills are almost certainly going to experience issues moving the ball on the ground against one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and while there are fair questions about the offense on Denver's side, many of those should be erased by the matchup.
Buffalo's counting stats against the pass look solid, but it finished 12th in DVOA and also just let Trevor Lawrence have a solid game.
Given Denver loves to throw, it should have more than enough of a chance here, but if not it should be able to easily pick on the second-worst run defense in the league.
Verdict: Bet Broncos Moneyline (-113)
Click here to return to the table of contents.
49ers vs Seahawks
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -330 |
It warms my heart to see so many dunking on the Eagles for losing to the 49ers — and is has nothing at all to do with Philly. In fact, I have absolutely no beef with the entire city of Philly. No, it has everything to do with the frauds that are the 49ers — and finally folks have woken up.
You certainly have to give a team that has lost so many of its best players to injury some credit for getting this far. It's also a marvel that it's happened with just about zero run game.
Unfortunately for San Francisco, the joyride stops here.
The Seahawks have one of the most complete defenses in the NFL, but one key wrinkle is the fact that they've faced the third-lowest run play rate. That's certainly what happens when you dominate during the regular season, but more than that it means these shining numbers in the secondary are backed by a hefty sample size.
Seattle ranked first in yards per attempt, seventh in interception rate and 11th in sack rate, and I am certainly not optimistic about Brock Purdy and the visitors.
Whether it was Purdy or Mac Jones under center, the 49ers didn't throw a whole bunch. Some of that was due to the fact that San Francisco finished with the sixth-worst interception rate and relied heavily upon short throws.
Whatever the case, the 49ers need to lean on Purdy to win this game, and with few weapons around him I don't like his chances.
Even if Sam Darnold succumbs to the pressure of facing his former team for a third time, I don't think San Francisco puts enough on the board to make it interesting.
Verdict: Lean Seahawks -7
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Texans vs Patriots
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
What will the Patriots defense have for us here? They started off the season on the right foot, ranking highly against the run for the first five or so weeks, but when it was all said and done, New England ranked 25th against the run and was supported mainly by its pass defense.
It paid off in a big way last week as the Chargers were unable to get anything going through the air, and with the game slipping away L.A. was forced to abandon a run game that had some modest success.
Houston's not exactly a juggernaut offensively, and its run game has been missing in action for most of the season. Last week was an exception, albeit a notable one given the Steelers' strong run defense, and even if Woody Marks shows up again on Sunday we can't assume Houston will be able to run the ball all game long without fear of the offense on the other side.
I mean, the Texans have the best defense in football right now, so perhaps they can, but it's much more likely we'll see a bunch of C.J. Stroud here. He didn't have his sharpest game against Pittsburgh, turning the ball over three times through three quarters, and New England's defense, as noted, has looked pretty solid against the pass in the last couple of months.
It's a hard one to read, but I think the moral of the story is that neither offense has an easy enough route to points to believe in a high-scoring game.
Drake Maye has been solid under pressure, which has helped him become immune to certain matchups, but Houston has picked off passes left and right and stopped opposing running backs in their tracks. New England has a heavy run-first offense; I don't see much happening.
Verdict: Bet Under 40.5 (-110)
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Rams vs Bears
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
The Bears appeared to be the lucky victors last weekend when they came from 18 points down to beat the Packers — but there was far more to the story.
Chicago, which has relied upon turnovers to stay in games, was quickly leaping all over loose balls on the field for three quarters like a well-coached team. That all changed when a game-changing fumble slipped out of its hands, followed by one more moment on a kickoff return by Josh Jacobs.
The turnovers Chicago needed were there; the ball quite literally didn't bounce its way. Even still, a competent offense wound up capitalizing on a worn down Packers defense to win the game behind the arm of Caleb Williams. All the while, the defense didn't come up with a turnover and the run game was held to just 3.3 yards per carry.
So, what happens now?
Well, you might expect the class of the NFC, the Rams, to take this one, but there are a few things to consider here.
First of all, the Bears will be playing at home, where they were 6-2 this season, and the Rams will take a 4-4 regular-season road record into this one. The former record ranked near the top of the league, the latter in the bottom half.
On top of that, the Rams' strength has lied in their ability to stop the run, but against the pass they're a pedestrian 12th in yards per attempt allowed and just 12th in sack rate as well.
The Rams don't turn the ball over on offense, which is a potential conundrum for the Bears, but the offense barely did enough to keep the team in the game. The Panthers forced a blocked punt and turnover on downs to help the offense operate with a short field, potentially excusing the 31 points the Rams allowed, but L.A.'s offense really should have done more against a so-so Carolina defense. The run game managed to average four yards, and while Matthew Stafford went over 300 he was an inefficient 24-of-42.
I'm just not scared of the Rams the way I was a month ago, and I see plenty to like about the Bears as long as both Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore — banged up, but practicing — are able to play.
Verdict: Bet Bears +3.5
Click here to return to the table of contents.
