I'm targeting two spreads and one total on Sunday of NFL Week 4, including picks for Titans vs Texans, Chargers vs Giants and Jaguars vs 49ers.
So, let's get right into my expert NFL picks and analysis for the fourth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions, Week 4
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Titans vs Texans Best Bet
The Texans are likely to be without top corner Derek Stingley Jr. (oblique), who was only able to practice once this week in a limited fashion. Their secondary will also be without C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who was released due to locker-room issues after starting the first three games.
The Titans have continued to improve offensively with rookie Cam Ward at the helm, going from 12 > 19 > 20 points and 133 > 252 > 282 in total yardage in Weeks 1-3.
The Texans offense has struggled to score, but they've left points on the field. Can they get convert against a Titans defense that ranks 30th in Expected Points Added per Play (0.174)?
C.J. Stroud has been far better when playing at home in his career, averaging 277.0 yards and 1.65 TDs passing per game at home on 8.18 YPA compared to 206.9 yards, 0.94 TDs, and 6.85 YPA when playing away.
Per our Action Labs data, Week 4 overs below 42 are 35-22-2 (61%) since 2008, covering by 2.24 points per game and producing a 19% ROI.
Pick: Over 38.5; Bet to Over 40
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Chargers vs Giants Spread Prediction
The Giants have undergone two key changes to their offense with the return of left tackle Andrew Thomas last week, and now the insertion of Jaxson Dart at quarterback.
Improvement on offense will help the Giants defense, which is talented but has been on the field too much — 9.0 more plays per game than the offense – due to the offense sputtering with Russell Wilson under center.
The defense is coming off its best game, holding the Chiefs to 3.75 yards per carry on 28 carries and 5.15 net yards per pass attempt on 39 Patrick Mahomes dropbacks.
Meanwhile, injuries are piling up for the Chargers, who are already running a bit lucky with their 3-0 record nearly a full win above Pythagorean expectation of 2.1.
OT Rashawn Slater (knee) went down in camp, LB Denzel Perryman (IR-ankle) went down in Week 1, EDGE Khalil Mack (IR-elbow) went down in Week 2, and the Bolts are down another lineman this week in Mekhi Becton (concussion).
They will also be without multiple skill players, including RB Najee Harris (IR-Achilles), WR/KR Derius Davis (knee) and TE Will Dissly (knee).
Per our Action Labs data, winless teams in Week 4 are 54-34-3 (61.4%) ATS since 2005.
Pick: Giants +6.5 (-110); Bet to +6
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Jaguars vs 49ers Spread Prediction
The Jaguars offense has left a lot of meat on the bone – Trevor Lawrence leads all quarterbacks with 13 passes dropped by his receivers, accounting for a whopping 17.1% of his catchable balls. That’s a stat that is obviously likely to revert upward to the mean, and the returns elsewhere have been promising.
The Jaguars rank fourth in PFF run-blocking grade (72.1) and sixth in PFF pass-blocking grade (67.3).
The 49ers, meanwhile, are still missing key players on both sides of the ball, such as tight end George Kittle and edge rusher Nick Bosa. They’re 3-0 despite averaging 19.7 points (23rd) with a +10 total point differential, which equates to 1.8 Pythagorean wins.
Per our Action Labs data, low-scoring favorites underperforming their Pythagorean expectation have gone just 98-141-4 (41%) ATS since 2006.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5; Bet to Jaguars +3
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