NFL Predictions: Week 17 Data-Driven Bets on Dolphins vs Patriots, More
Nick Grace/Getty Images. Pictured: Jakobi Meyers.
NFL Predictions
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Sean Koerner: Everyone knows these teams can put up points, and Lions home games have averaged more than 60 points per game this season. So, it’s no surprise that 64% of bets and 74% of the money is on the over.
Our expected score metric that helps fuel our Luck Rankings is showing value on the under here, though. It’s likely due to both teams ranking in the bottom five in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed, while the Lions have the third-highest red-zone touchdown percentage this season. Those numbers are likely to regress closer to league average moving forward.
Also, we have Adrian Hill officiating this game. He’s been very friendly to the under in his career, going 38-24 (61%).
I’m projecting this closer to 50.5 and would bet it down to 51.5.
Pick: Under 52.5 |
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Billy Ward: This NFC North showdown features the league’s two worst scoring defenses, and takes place inside at the Coors Field of Football. Seven of the Lions’ eight home games have gone over this line so far this season, and the previous meeting between these teams (in Chicago) produced 61.
As a rough rule, second meetings between divisional rivals usually produce less offense. However, some of that is due to weather (when teams meet a second time, it’s usually later in the season and thus rougher conditions.) That’s obviously not an issue here, and the 61 points scored in the first game gives some wiggle room anyway.
I see Sean’s point about some regression in the red-zone rates – but these are bad defenses. The Lions play a man-heavy scheme that’s vulnerable to rushing quarterbacks, while the Bears rank 29th in DVOA against the run.
The Lions’ red-zone touchdown rate on offense is also largely fueled by aggressive play calling. Dan Campbell going for it on fourth down isn’t likely to regress anytime soon.
Pick: Over 52.5 |
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Sean Koerner: This is a must-win game for the Commanders, who face a run-funnel Browns defense that has seen the seventh-highest opponent rush rate this season. Crucially, Washington will be without fellow running back Antonio Gibson.
I expect Washington to lean heavily on Robinson here. I’m in line with the rookie’s rushing-yard total, so I’m attacking this market instead. He has at least 18 carries in three of his last four, and that was with Gibson in the lineup.
I’d bet this prop to -140.
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Nick Giffen: On the season, Meyers has averaged 60.3 receiving yards per game with a median of 57.5. That includes three games where he’s played under 80% of the snaps. If we just look at the nine games he’s played more than 80% he’s averaged 65.8 yards per game with a median of 60.
Last week, Meyers played 100% of the snaps. He should see similarly heavy usage this week with DeVante Parker still out.
In addition, TE Jonnu Smith has been ruled out and Hunter Henry is a game-time decision and could be limited if he plays. That leaves the middle of the field nearly all to Meyers, who has lined up in the slot 70% of the time.
Miami has not been good against slot receivers, allowing the fourth-most yards per game, and the seventh-most yards per route run, making this a solid matchup.
In Week 1, Meyers got 55 yards against this Dolphins defense on an 88% snap share, but in that game Dolphins nickel back Kader Kohou only played 18 snaps. Now, he’s playing nearly every snap and is targeted on 20% of his routes covered, most among all Dolphins cornerbacks.
Meyers’ line should at least be closer to his year-long median of 57.5, giving us plenty of wiggle room at 52.5. I’d bet this up to 55.5.
Pick: Jakobi Meyers Over 52.5 Receiving Yards |
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Nick Giffen: The big angle here is the quarterback switch from Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) to Teddy Bridgewater.
Tagovailoa’s absence hurts Miami’s touchdown chances significantly. Only once in 12 games with Tagovailoa taking the majority of snaps have the Dolphins attempted fewer than two extra points.
In the three games Tagovailoa has missed or played less than half the snaps, Miami has attempted only four total extra points. That includes just two in the two games Bridgewater got the majority of snaps.
There’s a slight weather factor in this game with 11 mph crosswinds in New England.
I have Sanders staying under 46.9% of the time and I would bet to +135.
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Sean Koerner: The Texans have been playing well over their last three games, nearly beating the Cowboys and Chiefs before taking down the Titans last week. Houston’s defense is a big reason for these performances, ranking 13th in Football Outsiders’ Weighted DVOA metric.
The Jaguars have nothing to gain with a win since their playoff fate will come down to their Week 18 matchup against the Titans with the AFC South on the line. I wouldn’t be shocked if Jacksonville limits some of its key players to avoid injury here.
I like getting the key number at +3 with the Texans at home.
Pick: Texans +3 |
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Billy Ward: On a week with plenty of games with a low total and a close spread, Steelers vs. Ravens stands out. The total is just 35, with the Ravens favored by two.
The Ravens haven’t topped 17 points in a game without Lamar Jackson, even counting Week 13 when he played the opening series before going down. The Ravens haven’t scored more than three times in any of those games, and Jackson will be out again. That means they’d essentially need to shut the Steelers out to score three times in a row. The no side of this game should be slightly favored, so +135 is a solid value.
Browns vs. Commanders and Jets vs. Seahawks are also good spots for this prop this week.
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