NFL Prop Pick: The Receiving Under To Bet For Patriots vs. Seahawks on Sunday Night Football

NFL Prop Pick: The Receiving Under To Bet For Patriots vs. Seahawks on Sunday Night Football article feature image
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Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Patriots WR Damiere Byrd

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop for every primetime game throughout the 2020 season — he’s 4-1 so far and has a 214-153-4 (58.3%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for Sunday Night Football below. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.


NFL Prop Bet: Patriots vs. Seahawks

  • The Pick: Damiere Byrd Under 34.5 Rec Yards (-112)
  • Bet Now: DraftKings

Damiere Byrd played 88% of the Week 1 snaps, which led all Patriot wideouts, but he was practically running wind sprints — he failed to see even one target.

The Patriots operated a run-heavy offense against the Dolphins in the opener, but will likely be forced to throw more as 4-point underdogs against the Seahawks (find real-time odds here). I’m not expecting Byrd to get shutout again — I’m projecting him for 2.5 receptions and 35 yards. However, after running my player prop simulation 10,000 times, I found his median is closer to 23.5 for Sunday night.

Byrd is likely to be Newton’s vertical threat this season, which gives Byrd a wide range of outcomes each week. If he were to go over this prop, I would expect him to go way over this number. Most of the time, however, we can expect him to stay under 34.5.

I would bet this down to 27.5.

Here’s a breakdown of my simulator’s chances of Byrd going over or under his prop, depending on the line being offered:

Yards
Over
Under
29
40.7%
59.3%
30
39.2%
60.8%
31
38.3%
61.7%
32
37.4%
62.6%
33
36.5%
63.5%
34
35.7%
64.3%

[Bet Damiere Byrd’s under at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

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