Week 6 NFL DraftKings Player Prop Bets: Will Cooper Kupp Continue to Crush?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Cooper Kupp
- Matthew Freedman picks out the three best Week 6 NFL prop best that are posted on DraftKings.
- See how he's betting Teddy Bridgewater's rushing yards, Jordan Howard's rushing yards and Cooper Kupp's receiving yards.
DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Lines for the Week 6 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting some bets I’m making immediately and pointing out how our FantasyLabs Props Tool grades all three props below.
This season, I’m 159-105-3 (+28.3) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200.
Teddy Bridgewater 9.5 Rushing Yards
- Over 9.5: -112
- Under 9.5: -112
Before Bridgewater’s career-altering knee injury, he wasn’t hesitant to scramble out of the pocket to pick up extra yards with legs.
With the Vikings in 2014-15, he averaged 13.8 rushing yards per game.
But since his preseason ACL tear in 2016, Bridgewater has been a pocket-bound player. In his four games this year as the primary quarterback for the Saints, Bridgewater has had more than 9.5 yards rushing just once.
For the season, he’s averaging eight rushing yards per game.
As for the Jaguars, they’ve allowed 8.6 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, but that number is skewed by Marcus Mariota, who had 34 yards against them in Week 3. Other than that, they’ve held every opposing passer to no more than five yards — and that includes Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Bridgewater projected for 7.8 rushing yards.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Jordan Howard 50.5 Rushing Yards
- Over 50.5: -112
- Under 50.5: -112
In Weeks 1-3, Howard averaged just 19.7 snaps per game, but over the past two weeks, the number has jumped to 31.
With his increase in playing time has come enhanced rushing volume. In Weeks 1-3, he had 8.3 carries per game. In Weeks 4-5, that has bumped up to 14. And in each of those weeks, Howard went over 50.5 yards rushing.
Running backs Darren Sproles (quad) and Corey Clement (shoulder) did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday: They seem unlikely to play on Sunday. As a result, Howard’s snap volume looks as secure as it can be in this backfield. He might even see more snaps than usual.
In their three blowout victories, the Vikings have been able to minimize the rushing production of opposing backfields. But the Eagles are only three-point underdogs and should be able to keep the game close. In their two closest games of the season, the Vikings allowed 116 yards rushing to Aaron Jones and 53 yards rushing to David Montgomery.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Howard projected for 65.2 rushing yards.
Pick: Over 50.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10
Cooper Kupp 90.5 Receiving Yards
- Over 90.5: -109
- Under 90.5: -114
I like Kupp a lot, but 90.5 is a really high number. I have to bet the under as a matter of principle.
The slot receiver has gone over 90.5 in four of five games this year, and he’s No. 5 in the league with 101.0 receiving yards per game. So it looks like I’m on the wrong side of this line. But regression has to hit at some point.
I don’t want to sell short the idea that Kupp is having a fantastic breakout campaign — because he is — but for his career, he’s gone over 90.5 yards in just seven of 29 games (24.1%). And four of those games have occurred over the past month. This line feels like the result of recency bias.
Teammate Brandin Cooks (concussion) has practiced this week and is expected to play, so Kupp will have to compete with him at wide receiver for targets, as well as Robert Woods, not even to mention tight end Gerald Everett and running back Todd Gurley.
And the 49ers are much better against the pass this year than they have been previously. They are No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. They have been especially strong against supporting receivers (i.e., slot men), ranking No. 1 in pass defense DVOA against that cohort.
Kupp will run most of his routes against slot cornerback K’Waun Williams, and that’s not an easy matchup. Williams has an 84.2 coverage grade this year and has held opposing receivers to a 58.3% catch rate (per Pro Football Focus).
The 49ers have allowed just 150 yards receiving per game to wide receiver units this year.
Given the matchup and the projectable targets Cooks and Woods are likely to get, it seems unlikely that Kupp will see enough volume to hit the over.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Kupp projected for 71.9 receiving yards.
Pick: Under 90.5 (-114)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10
To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 6, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.