Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 NFL Prop Bets on DraftKings
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Russell Wilson (3).
- Matthew Freedman highlights his two favorite Week 9 NFL prop bets available on DraftKings.
- See his picks for Russell Wilson's passing touchdowns and Carson Wentz's fantasy points.
DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Lines for the Week 9 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting two bets I’m making immediately, based on the research I’ve done with these resources at FantasyLabs.
If you aren’t subscribing to FantasyLabs to get an edge on props, you’re living wrong.
This season, I’m 237-137-4 (+62.7) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200.
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson Passing Touchdowns
- Over 1.5: -200
- Under 1.5: +157
Oh, baby! We’re starting off hot.
Wilson has 2.13 touchdowns passing per game this year and has gone over 1.5 in 75% of his games. Last year, those numbers were 2.19 and 81.3%, so his touchdown production this year is no fluke.
Even though the Seahawks rank No. 29 in the league with a 51.7% pass-play rate, Wilson easily leads the league with 33 end-zone targets (per Pro Football Focus). Last year, he was tied for No. 2 with 48.
As long as Wilson is taking his shots at the end zone, it doesn’t really matter if the Seahawks lean on the run.
As for the Buccaneers, they have one of the league’s most extreme funnel defenses. They are No. 1 against the run (-42.5% DVOA) but No. 26 against the pass (21.8% DVOA, per Football Outsiders). The Seahawks will actually be incentivized to throw against them.
Seahawks-Bucs has a slate-high 53-point over/under: Lots of points are likely to be scored.
The Bucs have allowed an average of 2.0 touchdowns passing per game. The only starting quarterbacks not to pass for more than 1.5 touchdowns against them were a run game-restricted Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 1 and injury-impacted Cam Newton in Week 2.
But the rather uninspiring quintet of Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen and Ryan Tannehill — that collection of yahoos put up 2.6 touchdowns per game against the Bucs in Weeks 3-8.
Yes, Wilson is going over 1.5 touchdowns. He’s the No. 1 quarterback in our Week 9 fantasy football rankings.
For more on Wilson, see my Week 9 fantasy quarterback breakdown.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Wilson projected for 2.1 passing touchdowns. [In New Jersey? Bet now at DraftKings]
Pick: Over 1.5 (-200)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Eagles QB Carson Wentz Fantasy Points
- Over 14.5: -112
- Under 14.5: -112
Most people don’t even know that fantasy props exist, but they have a very special place in my heart. I’ve found that they are among the most exploitable props in the market, and here’s one I absolutely love.
The Bears defense isn’t a pushover, and it’s held opposing quarterbacks to the sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game at 15.3. But in his 48 career starts, Wentz has averaged 19.1 DraftKings points per game. He’s had more than 14.5 points in 70.8% of his games.
He’s struggled this year, but his 2019 average is still 18.7. Last week in a wind-impacted road game against a tough Bills secondary, Wentz had 14.4 points. That’s a tough beat. If we remove that game, he’s gone over 14.5 points 71.4% of the time.
Wentz is very much still himself.
There are two big factors in his favor this week.
First, field-stretching wide receiver DeSean Jackson (abdomen) seems likely to return. In Week 1 — the last week D-Jax was healthy — Wentz had 28 points, thanks in part to Jackson’s triumphant 154-yard, two-touchdown performance.
With D-Jax back, the entire offense is elevated.
Additionally, Wentz is on the positive side of his fantasy splits: In his 30 games as a favorite, he’s averaged 20.7 DraftKings points.
In the FantasyLabs Models, we have Wentz projected for 18.4 DraftKings points. [In New Jersey? Bet now at DraftKings]
Pick: Over 14.5 (-112)
To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 8, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.