Freedman’s NFL Week 12 Trends & Early Bets: Find Value Betting Against The Steelers
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson.
Editor’s note: The Ravens-Steelers matchup has been postponed for Sunday afternoon.
It’s Week 12: Thanksgiving Week. And football gods be good, I’m thankful that we haven’t had one single NFL game cancelled up to this point in the season.
Let’s take a look at some applicable trends for the early Week 12 spreads.
Although I’m not a trends bettor, I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games. Using our Bet Labs database, I have uncovered some intriguing NFL trends for two games this week.
All lines are from our NFL Odds page.
Early Week 12 NFL Picks
Click on a pick to skip to that analysis.
|Ravens +3 vs. Steelers||DraftKings|
|Packers -7.5 vs. Bears||FanDuel|
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Kickoff: Rescheduled for Sunday
The Ravens just suffered a painful 30-24 overtime home loss to the Titans, while the Steelers meandered their way to an easy 27-3 road win over the Jaguars.
Because of these recent results, I expect the betting market to be too low on the Ravens and too high on the Steelers, especially given how familiar with each other these divisional rivals are.
On top of that, I generally want to invest in road dogs coming off a loss.
My theory: Square bettors tend to avoid visitors, underdogs and teams that just lost, which means that in a market flush with new and unsophisticated money we should see road underdogs coming off a loss provide excessive value.
And that is what we’ve seen since 2019, when many inexperienced bettors first entered the market with the widespread legalization of sports speculation. Since last year, road dogs off are 73-50-5 against the spread (ATS), good for an A-graded 14.3% return on investment (ROI).
When these two teams met in Week 8, the Steelers snuck out of Baltimore with a narrow 28-24 win despite getting four turnovers, one of which was a pick-six in the first minute.
No matter what happens in the game, Ravens-Steelers matchups are almost always close at the end. With that in mind, I’ll gladly take the road dog off a loss.
- Action: Ravens +3 (-110) at DraftKings
- Limit: +1 (-110)
Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs. Chicago Bears
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: NBC
In his career, Rodgers has thrived in two notable spots: at home and within the division.
- At home: 55-32-3 ATS | 23% ROI
- Within division: 44-26 ATS | 23% ROI
And at Lambeau Field vs. NFC North opponents, Rodgers is an improved 22-12 ATS (26.2% ROI).
I’m not worried about the Bears. Although Bears head coach Matt Nagy was 12-5 ATS in his first year with the team, his opponents are 17-8-1 ATS (31% ROI) since the start of last season.
The Bears are coming off the bye, but I’m still not concerned because Nagy is 0-2 with an extra week to prepare.
- Action: Packers -7.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: -9.5 (-110)
Matthew Freedman is 788-631-37 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian