NFL Week 4 Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Titans vs Colts, Cardinals vs Panthers, More
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Ryan.
NFL Odds & Picks
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Billy Ward: Truth be told, I’d be way more excited about this bet with an extra half-point, but I’m still seeing a significant edge on the 20.5 lines throughout the industry.
The biggest reason is the pace splits.
Pittsburgh has continued its trend of playing faster in the second half of games than the first. In 2021 they played about 4.5 seconds faster in the second half; this season it’s just over five seconds.
Any time the first half total is exactly half – or more – of the full game total, that creates an edge (based on the assumption that the game total is more efficient.)
The Jets have had similar splits, though theirs are likely a function of generally playing from behind in the second half over the past two seasons, so I won’t put too much stock in them.
These teams have combined to average 20 points in the first half, and I’d expect the Jets offense to function considerably worse with Zach Wilson back under center in his season debut.
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Nick Giffen: Until books adjust, I’m going to keep attacking Hopkins under props.
The Chargers continue to be an aggressive team, going for it on fourth down seven times. Only three teams have gone for it more.
While the Chargers haven’t attempted a two-point conversion yet in 2022, they were among the top five in two-point conversion rate in 2021, despite a winning record.
While there’s no injury designation for Just Herbert, we still should question whether he’s 100%. After all, L.A. scored only 10 points last week.
I projected the under to hit at a 60.9% rate. As such, I would bet this to -125.
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Sean Koerner: The Jags face a stingy Eagles defense this week and Jones will likely draw either Darius Slay or James Bradberry for most of his routes. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram should both see an increase in target share based on the matchup as well.
There’s a chance this game could see 15-20 mph winds and even some rain. If that ends up being the case, it’ll negatively impact Jones even more as he has the team’s highest aDot (14.8).
Jones is the type of player who could clear his receiving yards prop (44.5) if he’s able to haul in a couple of low-percentage, downfield throws, so the best way to attack him is taking the under on his receptions.
I’m projecting him to stay under 3.5 about 58% of the time and would bet it down to -120.
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Sean Koerner: Ryan has been held under this number 60% of the time dating back to last season.
The Titans will likely be below average in generating pressure this season with Harold Landry (torn ACL) out for the year, which helps lower the odds of Ryan scrambling two-plus times.
Ryan only has one rush attempt this season that has cleared four-plus yards. Considering the Colts are 3.5-point favorites this week, the chances of getting 1-2 kneel-downs at the end of the game are elevated, which could come in handy if Ryan happens to rush for 5-6 yards earlier.
I’m projecting him to stay under this number about 60% of the time and would bet it down to -130.
Betting on these types of props is not for the faint of heart.
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Nick Giffen: Fields has been an interception machine in his young NFL career. However, there’s plenty of reason to think he may not throw a pick against the Giants.
Giants defensive coordinator Don Martindale has traditionally coached defenses that haven’t generated interceptions.
Dating back to 2020 with the Ravens, Martindale teams have forced an interception in only 18-of-38 games (including the playoffs). That includes none so far in 2022 as the new defensive coordinator for the Giants.
Add in a forecast that calls for rain and 15-mph winds and the Bears could lean even more heavily on the run with more shorter passes mixed in.
I’m showing fair odds for the under at +120, so +133 is solid value. I would bet it as low as +130.
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Billy Ward: Back to the well with my favorite bet, which is already up 3.8 units (based on all bets within my threshold) to start the season.
This game is the best example of it on the slate, with an extremely narrow spread that has been within a point in either direction of a pick ‘em all week.
Combine that with the fairly low total of 43.5, and it’s a great spot. Based on the past five seasons, games with a spread of 1.5 or less and total under 45 have had three unanswered scores only 52% of the time.
That means the fair value on the no side of this bet is roughly +108, with BetMGM giving us +175.
Browns–Falcons has a similar edge, though slightly reduced thanks to the higher total.
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Billy Ward: I nailed my “gut-feel” pick last week (Lions +6), so I’m taking another stab at a less data-driven bet.
While the Cardinals will be without A.J. Green (and possibly Marquise Brown), they should be getting back Rondale Moore, who is probably more valuable at this point.
They have the same record as the Panthers at 1-2, but their losses have come to the Rams and Chiefs, while the Panthers have lost to the Browns and Giants.
The Panthers are banged up as well, with DNPs on Thursday from both Christian McCaffrey and Laviska Shenault – arguably their two most impactful skill position players. Both seem likely to go (each logged limited practices on Friday), but could be less than 100%.
This line has bounced around a bit, but I’d take any version where the Cardinals are getting a point.
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