NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Analysis, Pick: Is This the Week to Use the Packers?
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.
It was a very good week for sharp survivor pool players. Well over half of pickers flocked to the Chiefs and Chargers and both were saddled with a loss.
I was able to get through with the Bengals, but did have some remorse over not taking Chicago. In a pool where you expect to get to Week 18, taking those ugly plays that survive can make a big difference toward the end of the season.
It's been a wild season already as two of the three most popular plays have lost in each of the first three weeks.
If you are in a pool with thousands of entries, you still have a ways to go. But if you are in a smaller pool, you should keep in mind what options your opponents have and also should tend to play it safer.
Note that with PoolGenius, I am able to calculate my expected value and see the top picks specifically for the pool I'm in.
I have used the Ravens, Buccaneers and Bengals through the first three weeks, but I'll continue to analyze the entire slate as I know everybody has taken different paths to get here.
Without further ado, here are the projected win percentages for Week 4 and the rest of the season.
The Packers are the biggest favorite of the week. Unfortunately, they are also the most popular pick of the season.
Nearly half of all entrants are expected to take Green Bay this week. This makes them a -EV play and one I would avoid.
You may be able to save them and use them in Week 6 against the Jets when most of your pool has already used them.
We know the Packers didn't make the list of best plays this week, but here are the 10 teams that did:
Image above using PoolGenius.
The Bengals are surprisingly at the top of the list against the surprisingly 3-0 Dolphins.
This may seem counterintuitive, but when looking at other games on the board, there aren't many big favorites this week. Only the Eagles and Packers have higher projected win probabilities.
And that is without factoring in injury news as Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle are questionable for Thursday's game.
If Tagovailoa is out, Cincinnati becomes very interesting as a play, but may also take away some ownership from Green Bay. There are a lot of moving parts.
However, I used Cincinnati last week, so I'm going to go in a different direction.
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs New York Jets)
Remember earlier when I mentioned ugly plays? Well, here you go.
You can see why people are drawn to Green Bay this week. Most of these other plays don't feel great.
And while it doesn't feel great, it does have math on its side. The Steelers offer high expected value this week and absolutely zero future value for the remainder of the season.
If you are planning on making it until Week 18, this is the exact play we are looking for.