NFL Week 7 Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Giants vs Jaguars, 49ers vs Chiefs, More
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
NFL Odds & Picks
Nick Giffen: Atlanta goes for it on fourth down at the third lowest rate (8.8%) and kicks field goals at the third highest rate (32.4% of fourth downs). Koo has made 1.67 field goals per game this season.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have allowed at least four field goal attempts in five of six games. Kickers are 6-for-6 in clearing over 1.5 field goals made against Cincy this year.
I project Koo to have a 58.3% chance of going over this number (or -140). I’d bet this down to -125.
Sean Koerner: Robinson has a few factors going against him here.
He has seen his route participation fall into the 30% range over the past three weeks as Travis Etienne has essentially become the Jaguars’ 1A back. Robinson has only seen an 11.8% target rate this season, so he’s unlikely to make much noise in the passing game with limited playing time.
The Giants use man coverage at the second highest rate, which makes it more difficult for RBs to get involved in the passing game. They haven’t allowed a RB to catch three-plus passes since Week 2, when they held Christian McCaffrey to a 4/26/0 receiving line.
I’m projecting Robinson to stay under 1.5 receptions 66% of the time and would bet this down to -155.
Sean Koerner: Jones has all the ingredients needed to take the over.
He’s averaging an 87% route participation and a 22.2% target rate this season. He also sees high-percentage targets thanks to a fairly low 7.6 average depth of target (aDOT).
The Giants blitz at a league-high rate of 42.5% and Jones has seen his target share go up from 18.5% when Trevor Lawrence isn’t facing a blitz to 21.4% when he is. I’m projecting Jones to catch four-plus passes 61% of the time and would bet this up to -130.
Nick Giffen: The Jaguars are already three-point home favorites, and if our Action Network Luck Rankings are to be believed, it’s likely they will cover that. If so, this is an incredible situation for Robinson at home.
Despite Travis Etienne’s increased usage, Robinson remains the back the Jaguars go to in the red zone. He has 32 rushing attempts compared to Travis Etienne’s eight. That includes a 4-to-1 advantage inside the five.
The Giants have shown to be quite porous against the run, ranking 28th in defensive DVOA against opposing ground games.
We project fair odds on this closer to +145 and would bet down to +155.
Billy Ward: The 1.5-point spread and 37-point total are both near ideal indicators for this prop.
I first ran the odds of a game with a sub-40 total and spread of 1.5 or fewer. That produced too small of a sample size, so I bumped it up to a total of 42 or fewer and spread within two. Theoretically, Jets-Broncos is a better situation than most games in that sample.
Even so, 55% of those games had the “No” side of this prop hit, which translates to a roughly -120 line. DraftKings is giving us +155. That’s a massive edge, and not one we should pass on.
The Russell Wilson news is also clearly a big help here. The spread stayed at roughly the same number (though in the other direction) while shaving a point or a point-and-a-half off the total.
Derivative props like this generally don’t get moved — or at least as quickly — when news breaks.
Billy Ward: While the fine folks at BetMGM have wisely stopped offering +175 on the “No” side of this prop for every game, they’ve made some slight mistakes with how they’ve adapted the pricing. The +200 line on this game is the perfect example.
Based on my data set, this line should be about +152. That’s not quite enough of an edge to bet the +175 we’ve seen in the past, but at +200 it’s a solid edge. That +152 was calculated fairly conservatively as well, counting all games with a spread under 2 and total of 48 or more.
Most of the games in that sample size will have a higher total than the 49 in this game. As we know, lower totals correlate positively with the “No” side of this prop — though the spread is far more important.
Billy Ward: The Steelers continue to produce value on first half unders, averaging just 8.8 points per game before halftime. Their trend of inexplicably playing at a snail’s pace in the first half shows no sign of speeding up, playing nearly three seconds slower relative to the second half.
While Miami actually plays slightly faster — and scores slightly more — in the first half of games, the differential is fairly narrow and not nearly enough to overcome Pittsburgh.
This is also a game where I’d prefer to be on unders more generally. It’s a tough matchup for both offensive lines against their counterparts. I also have concerns with both quarterbacks.
Pittsburgh has struggled to get consistent production out of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, while Tua Tagovailoa may be at less than full effectiveness after missing time due to multiple concussions.