Week 7 of the NFL season is upon us. So, I've got you covered with my betting card filled with picks for seven of this week's matchups, including predictions for Eagles vs. Vikings, Patriots vs. Saints, Commanders vs. Cowboys, and more.
Plus, I've also made a lookahead pick for Week 8 featuring next week's matchup between the Vikings and Chargers.
Let's get to my NFL Week 7 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 7 Predictions
  |   |   |   |   |   |   |  |
Eagles vs Vikings
Vikings' fans may have PTSD with another big game against Philadelphia, and Carson Wentz will certainly relish an opportunity to face his original team.
But it's hard to make the Vikings home underdogs in Minnesota, where they still have one of the better home field advantages in football.
In fact, it's hard to argue the Eagles are the better team at all right now given the way Philadelphia is playing, which could mean the Vikings should be favored here or even pushing -3.
The Eagles are just aggressively mid right now. The offense is stagnant, and Vic Fangio's defense has fallen off in a big way.
Philadelphia ranks 14th on offense by DVOA and 18th on defense. Again: average.
The Eagles aren't running the football particularly well. They're not making big plays or consistent stops on defense.
The passing game has been inconsistent at best and invisible at worst. It's hard to identify what exactly this team is doing well right now.
Philadelphia can be grateful for the mini-bye it's coming off of after a Thursday night game last week.
The Eagles have been besieged by injuries early, but saw DTs Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, LB Zack Baun, G Landon Dickerson, and CB Quinyon Mitchell all return to practice this week.
That's huge news for the Eagles — but it doesn't mean all five will play at 100%, or that they'll make it through the game.
Philadelphia's defensive line has struggled in a big way when Carter missed time this season, and Mitchell is an extremely important cover man in this game with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on the other side — and a hamstring can always act up again.
The Vikings are coming off an actual bye, and they badly needed the time off too.
Blake Cashman returns at the center of the defense, a huge add as the green-dot linebacker and focal point of the run defense.
That's obviously especially important in this matchup. Minnesota's run defense hasn't been great, but is much better with Cashman.
Minnesota's offensive line is also getting healthy and should be its best of the season. There's even a chance Philadelphia has the worse blocking in this game for the first time in who knows how long.
J.J. McCarthy will miss another week — but that's arguably better for the Vikings in the present.
McCarthy has only two career starts, and Wentz has been the better QB this season and makes this passing game much more dangerous against a Philly secondary that's been surprisingly beatable.
At the end of the day, the best unit on the field is the Vikings' defense — especially the pass defense.
Kevin Patullo's offense has been so vanilla and predictable for Philadelphia this season, and now one of the most creative defensive play callers in the league, Brian Flores, had two weeks to prep and scheme for it.
Flores typically plays heavy zone and brings a ton of blitz — both things Jalen Hurts has struggled at throughout his career, and especially this season. That's just not a good setup for Philadelphia.
Trends support home underdogs in the first half coming off the bye.
If Minnesota can get off to a good start, the Eagles will have to play on the back foot, an uncomfortable spot against this aggressive Flores' defense.
This is a great spot to back the Vikings.
Justin Jefferson Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Eagles had the 21st pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Philadelphia badly needed a receiver and took one — TCU's Jalen Reagor. He lasted two seasons with the Eagles and has bounced around the league since.
The Vikings had the 22nd pick and also needed a receiver. They took Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson was passed over by the Eagles, and now Philadelphia will have to spend all game defending him instead. And defending lead receivers has not gone well for this secondary this season.
CeeDee Lamb had seven catches for 110 yards in the opener. Puka Nacua caught 11 for 112. Rookie Emeka Egbuka had 101 yards, and Courtland Sutton caught eight balls for 99. Even Wan'Dale Robinson had six catches for 84 with Malik Nabers out.
Philadelphia's secondary just hasn't come anything close to matching last year's dominance, especially against outside receivers, and that makes this a great spot to invest in Jefferson.
It looks like Quinyon Mitchell will give it a go, but he's dealing with a hamstring injury, and Philly's other outside corners have struggled.
The other injury news is also a boon for Jefferson: J.J. McCarthy will sit again, leaving Carson Wentz starting against his old team.
Jefferson averaged only 3.5 catches for 62.5 yards in his two games with McCarthy, struggling to find the ball, but he's looked his usual self in three games alongside Wentz with 7.3 receptions per game for 108 yards.
That's more than double the receptions and 72% more yards, with at least 75 yards in all three.
Take Jefferson to go over 75.5 receiving yards (Fanatics), and place part of your bet on 100+ yards at +210 (bet365).
Jefferson is always a threat to put up 100+, and the Eagles have already allowed four games of 99+ yards to opposing WR1s.
Picks: Vikings +2.5, Justin Jefferson Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
| | | | | | | |
Patriots vs Titans
Welcome to the Vrabel Bowl.
Mike Vrabel returns to face his old team and could have revenge on his mind after an interesting ending with Tennessee.
Meanwhile, the Titans just fired his replacement, Brian Callahan, replacing him with veteran retread, Mike McCoy.
Could the Titans see a dead-cat bounce post-Callahan?
Home underdogs of seven or more points are 18-1-2 ATS the first eight games of the season since 2022, already responsible for Giants-Eagles and Browns-Packers upsets this season.
The matchup sets up well for Drake Maye and the Patriots passing attack though, and the Patriots will surely score some points.
Typically, Josh McDaniels' offenses prefer to score by running it in if they're close to the end zone.
Tennessee may be happy to oblige. The Titans have already allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing RBs, at least one to every RB1 Tennessee has faced this season, and that includes multiple TDs to RBs in half those games.
So, which Patriots RB do we play?
The answer may not be as complicated as it seems. Antonio Gibson is on IR. So, he's out. And it's getting pretty clear which RB gets the looks in the red zone.
Rhamondre Stevenson has 15 red zone carries already to just three for rookie TreVeyon Henderson, and he's up 8-to-1 on carries inside the 10, scoring both of his touchdowns from there.
That matches what we saw last season, where five of Stevenson's seven TDs came on his 17 carries inside the 10.
Keep it simple and take the short yardage back in Rhamondre Stevenson for an anytime touchdown at +120 (Hard Rock), and put a piece of your bet on two scores at +450 (bet365).
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+120), 2+ TDs (+450)
| | | | | | | |
Dolphins vs Browns
This looks like the most weather-impacted game on the slate in what could be a pretty ugly Sunday around the league.
Weather forecasts expect sustained winds of 20-to-25 MPH and gusts at 50 or above with some rain on top of it, and the total has absolutely plummeted, from an already-low 41.5 on Sunday to 35.5 and falling as of publish.
That will almost certainly mean a heavy reliance on the run game in this one, and that should be advantage-Cleveland.
The Browns have the league's No. 1 ranked run defense by DVOA, and the Dolphins are on the opposite end of the spectrum.
Miami ranks dead last in Defensive DVOA and fourth-worst against the run, and the Dolphins rank 31st in Success Rate defensively.
This defense just got cooked by Kimani Vidal and Rico Dowdle the last two weeks, to the tune of 18/124 for Vidal and 23/206 for Dowdle — two backup RBs! Add in Breece Hall and James Cook the previous two games, and opposing runners are averaging 18.5 carries for 130 yards per game the last four weeks.
The Dolphins have already allowed 806 rushing yards to opposing RBs, most in the league. Only seven other teams have even allowed 600!
Cleveland ranks top-10 in EPA per rush and has really found something in rookie Quinshon Judkins.
Judkins dropped to only 40% snaps last week in a trailing script against Pittsburgh, but played over half the snaps in each of the three previous games, averaging 20.7 carries for 95 YPG. He had at least 82 yards in all three games.
Grab Judkins to go over 78.5 rushing yards (Fanatics), and let's take a shot on a couple huge outcomes, 120+ yards at +350 and 150+ yards at +900, in case he really explodes in a sloppy run-heavy game.
You can also play over 17.5 longest rush for Judkins at DraftKings if you like.
Miami's defense has allowed a run of over 20 yards to each the last five opposing RB1s they've faced, and Judkins already has runs of 31, 32, and 38 yards in his young career.
Pick: Quinshon Judkins Over 78.5 Rushing Yards, 100+ Rushing Yards (+170), 120+ Rushing Yards (+350)
| | | | | | | |
Saints vs Bears
The weather in this game could be gross. We are looking at winds in the 15-to-20 MPH range and a chance of drizzle on top of it.
That could set up more of a run-forward game.
Did Chicago fix its run game in the bye week? The Bears ranked 26th, 32nd, 16th, and 22nd in rushing EPA per play before the bye, but leapt to fifth against what had been a positive Washington' run defense on Monday night.
That's huge for Ben Johnson, since his teams will always be built around the run, and the healthier Chicago' run defense played much better too.
That sets up well for a Bears' win, and my numbers make this Chicago by around a touchdown, but the Saints continue to hang around in games and the weather makes this too variable to want a side here.
Instead, I'll keep riding a trend we played last week against the Saints, who have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in every game this season. They've also allowed at least one TD to the opposing WR1 in four of six games.
Rome Odunze has scored a touchdown every game this season but last week — and should have a perfect record if we're being honest, after making a great adjustment on a TD grab that was negated by a questionable penalty.
Let's keep it going, with an Odunze Anytime TD at +125 (Hard Rock).
Odunze already scored twice in a game earlier this season, and the Saints just allowed a 2-TD game last week, so sprinkle a portion of your bet on two scores at +825 (BetMGM).
Picks: Rome Odunze Anytime TD (+125), 2+ TDs (+825)
| | | | | | | |
Giants vs Broncos
For a second straight week, I'm backing a New York team against the Broncos.
Last week it was the Jets in London, and it was a disgusting game.
There was a lot of rightful talk about just how bad the Jets' offense was in that game — and how well the Broncos' defense played — but it was perhaps a bit overlooked how poorly Denver's offense played too.
The Broncos struggled to move the ball all game and trailed late, probably deserving to lose a game where the Jets had negative passing yards.
Denver's offense isn't even average right now, and it's clear Sean Payton does not trust Bo Nix.
The Giants' defense has disappointed this season. The run defense has looked beatable and ranks near the bottom of the league by DVOA, but Shane Bowen's defense pushes teams to pass.
Only one opposing RB has tallied over 12 carries against the Giants this season. That means this game will likely fall upon the shoulders of Nix and the passing attack.
Don't expect a ton of fireworks in this one.
The Giants' offense is built upon a pair of rookies in Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, though the duo have played well and are being helped by the return of LT Andrew Thomas giving the offensive line a huge boost.
Still, how is anyone going to consistently move the ball or score in this game?
Brian Daboll road unders are 61% for his career, and Daboll games with totals under 44 are also 63% to the under.
That might make it seem like the under is the better play, but with such a low total and an under lean, that makes 7.5 points on the spread even more valuable.
Denver has four wins this season, but three of those came by one score.
The Giants don't need to win this game — just keep it close, like the Jets did, and prevent Denver from pulling away.
Last season, the Broncos beat up on bad teams. Bo Nix was invincible, perfect against the spread as a favorite. This year, he's 1-3 ATS.
However, the biggest advantage in this game was in place before the season even started.
The Giants are coming off a mini-bye after playing last Thursday, with a chance for this young offense to regroup and find its legs.
The Broncos, on the other hand, just played Sunday morning in London.
NFL teams have the option to take a bye after playing overseas, but Denver turned down that option and now will play with weak, tired legs seven days later.
NFL teams that return from London without a bye week have been tied or trailing in the fourth quarter in 15 of the 17 games the following week.
That's not a huge sample, but an 88% hit rate is enough to tell us what our bodies already know — these tired teams are running out of juice late in the following game, fighting for their lives.
If the Giants are tied or leading in the fourth quarter, they should be able to cover +7.5.
Be sure to grab the half-point over the key number if you can at ESPN Bet, but play at +7 if necessary.
And if the Giants are in the game late, it's obligatory to sprinkle the moneyline at +320 (ESPN Bet).
The Jets couldn't quite get over the line last Sunday, but maybe the Giants will actually finish off this tired team.
Picks: Giants +7.5, Giants ML (+300)
| | | | | | | |
Commanders vs Cowboys
We're getting creative with this one based on this division rivalry's history and both teams' profiles.
Dallas gets CeeDee Lamb back, and that should only help an offense that's already been surprisingly good, with Dak Prescott playing some of the best ball of his career and George Pickens dominating week after week.
Jayden Daniels is back and playing well for Washington, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and the run game have been excellent under Kliff Kingsbury.
Both of these offenses ranks top-10 by DVOA and can put up some serious points.
The defenses only help the cause.
Both defenses have key injuries. Washington's defense is old, and Dallas knows Dan Quinn well, and I don't need to tell you how bad the Cowboys' defense has been.
It's easy to see a path toward either offense exploding, and with a total in the mid-50s, it's natural to expect one of those games where the last team with the ball wins, a 30-27 type shootout.
But that's not how this division rivalry typically plays out.
Only one of the last 13 games between these rivals finished closer than seven points! In fact, the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19.6 PPG. That includes margins of 15, 20, 22, 25, 28, 31, 35, and 42.
It also means 62% of those games finished with a margin of over two touchdowns.
And it's not just a rivalry thing — that fits how both these teams play, even outside the rivalry.
Washington just lost by one point on Monday night, but every other Commanders' game this season has finished with at least a seven-point margin of victory. That was true last year too.
So, 15-of-25 games under Dan Quinn (including the postseason) have finished with a margin of seven points or higher — 60% of them!
Dallas has seen 43% of its games since the start of last season finish with a margin of eight points or higher, nearly half of them, and big blowouts have been quite common.
Dallas has played nine games with a 15+ margin, 39% of its games; and Washington is at 40% during that stretch.
Okay, so which side wins big?
I have no idea! So, I'm getting creative and betting both sides to win by margin.
Let's split our bet and take both sides to win by seven or more. Bet Washington -6.5 at +240 (Hard Rock) and Dallas -6.5 at +270 (BetMGM).
Bet those separate — you literally can't parlay them together — and we'll hope one side cashes.
Those bets together give us a combined -129 on either team to win by 7+ points.
Get the idea? Great, because now it's time for an escalator.
Remember how often we're getting blowout wins by more than two scores. So, let's also play either side to win by 14 or more.
Bet Washington -13.5 at +500 and Dallas -13.5 at +600, both at FanDuel, for an implied +223 on either team to win by 14+ points (31%).
Lastly, bet Washington -19.5 (+1060) and Dallas -19.5 (+1100) both at FanDuel for an implied +490 on either team to win by 20+ points.
If you feel strongly about a side, you're welcome to only play the side you like.
Although, if you feel good about a side, your better escalator may be attacking the NFC East division odds, or even considering a long shot MVP investment in the right quarterback.
I'll let the teams sort it out on the field and just hope whoever's ahead puts things away in a big way.
Picks: Commanders vs Cowboys Blowout Escalator
| | | | | | | |
Falcons vs 49ers
We just watched the Falcons win a big one Monday night against the Bills. That was an impressive performance, but does mean this isn't a great spot for Atlanta, playing on short rest after such a big win for the franchise.
Still, these just look like two teams headed in opposite directions.
Atlanta had that weird shutout loss to Carolina, but has otherwise been pretty impressive on the season, especially defensively.
As for the 49ers, the record still looks good, but the injury report is long and depressing.
Both Brock Purdy and Mac Jones entered the week banged up, and so did receivers Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall.
Purdy and Pearsall have been ruled out. Jones and Jennings will play, but at less than 100%, though it does look like George Kittle will return.
Even so, this team is missing its franchise QB and arguably its top two receivers — don't forget Brandon Aiyuk is still out too!
But, the defense is in even worse shape.
It looks like both CB Renardo Green and ED Yatur Gross-Matos could miss.
You may not know those names, but they're probably San Francisco's top option at each spot — in part because of the cascading effect of injuries to San Francisco's two defensive superstars, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, both out for the season.
San Francisco is a fringe bottom-10 defense by DVOA on the season, and almost certainly even worse than those metrics would indicate, since Bosa and Warner played for much of that.
The Niners are getting zero pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking 31st in pressure rate on the season, and Atlanta ranks lowest in pressure rate allowed. Michael Penix should have plenty of time to attack this defense.
San Francisco also plays a ton of light-box defense, at 98% of its snaps, by far the most in the league, typically relying on Fred Warner to clean up the back end when necessary.
Atlanta ranks fourth in EPA per play against light boxes, and Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier could bust some more big plays if they face light fronts all game.
On the other side of the ball, Atlanta is somewhat beatable against the run, but the 49ers have not run well all season.
Christian McCaffrey is seeing volume, but the 49ers rank bottom-five in rushing DVOA.
San Francisco will need to pass, and the Falcons lead the league in pass defense DVOA.
Atlanta's small speedy pass rushers have really gotten after the opposing quarterback.
The 49ers have done a great job at limiting pressure rate, but Atlanta ranks top-five in pressures, and the 49ers are 27th in EPA per play when under pressure.
That's an area where Purdy's loss is even more significant. Purdy can move and create, but Jones is much more of a statue, even more so while he plays through injuries.
I waited on this one, hoping we might hit Atlanta +3 if the right injury news came out, but it's not going to get there with Purdy out.
I'm happy to grab Atlanta +2.5 at ESPN Bet and see if the Falcons can pull off a second straight primetime upset.
Pick: Falcons +2.5
| | | | | | | |
Vikings vs Chargers (Week 8 Lookahead Pick)
Usually, we take favorites on the Lookahead before the line gets even longer, but this is all about the key number.
What happens with these teams this weekend?
Both teams are playing in coin-flip games, but it's easy to see this shifting towards the Vikings.
The Chargers are super banged up, especially on the offensive line, and Jonathan Taylor could be in for a big game Sunday.
Los Angeles is not far from a three-game losing streak right now. So, another poor showing could really drop public perception.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off the bye and getting healthier, and a home win against the Eagles would really boost their status.
Minnesota's defense looks like the best unit on the field, particularly the pass defense.
The Chargers are missing their top two RBs and leaning very pass-heavy, and those offensive line injuries could be a big problem against this aggressive Vikings' defensive front.
There's not much home-field advantage for the Chargers these days either, if any.
But in the end, this is all about the number. Getting the +3.5 here is huge.
The Chargers already have wins this season by two and three points. That's a Minnesota cover with this spread.
The Vikings also have a three-point loss already, another scenario where the Vikings cover +3.5.
Three is still by far the most important key number in the NFL, and I don't expect this to be available after Sunday. So, I'm grabbing the hook on the right side of the key number while it's there at FanDuel.
Pick: Vikings +3.5
Brandon's Week 7 Betting Card
- Vikings +2.5
- Justin Jefferson Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+120) / 2+ TDs (+450)
- Quinshon Judkins Over 78.5 Rushing Yards / 100+ Yards (+170) / 120+ Yards (+350)
- Rome Odunze Anytime TD (+125) / 2+ TDs (+825)
- Giants +7.5 / Giants ML (+300)
- Commanders vs Cowboys Blowout Escalator
- Falcons +2.5
Brandon's Week 8 Lookahead Pick
- Vikings +3.5
| | | | | | | |
