NFL Week 8 Picks: Data-Driven Predictions & Player Props

NFL Week 8 Picks

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Billy Ward

This game is tied for fourth for the odds to be the highest-scoring game, with a 43.5 total. However, when you go through the likelier options, something interesting pops out.

All of the games with better odds to top the list on Sunday feature a spread of seven or more, with most of the scoring likely to be driven by the favored team. While that could certainly happen – see the Dolphins 70-point explosion this season – the overall upside is capped a bit by blowouts.

Those Dolphins have a tough defensive matchup with the Patriots, and the other favored teams (Chargers and Chiefs) are facing bad opposing offenses that are unlikely to push the pace.

While the matchup is difficult for the Bengals offense, this is the lone game on the board featuring two offenses both capable of putting up big scores. Additionally, the Bengals are coming off their bye week and should benefit from improved health from Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins.

With Brock Purdy clearing concussion protocol for the 49ers, I also expect this total to creep up a bit as we approach kickoff. The 49ers rank second in the NFL in points per game at 28.7, so as long as the Bengals can push the pace here we could easily see a shootout.

Pick: Highest-Scoring Game (+800)

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By Nick Giffen

I know betting plus-money INT props are all the rage this year, but I’m looking in the other direction at one of my favorite player props of the weekend.

Bryce Young hasn’t won a game yet, starting 0-5 in his career, but it hasn’t been because he’s been throwing interceptions.

Yes, he’s had four on the year, but that’s an incredibly unlucky number given the fact that he’s only thrown 15 bad balls on the year. We’d expect just under 3 INTs from the 15 bad balls Young has served up.

Now he faces a Texans defense that is dead last in the NFL in forcing bad balls with just 18 passes defended through six games. Yes, the Texans have faced a relatively tough schedule, but they remain a bottom-five team in this department after adjusting for strength of schedule.

The Texans have also been a bit lucky in the INT department with four INTs on those 18 passes defended, coming in around half an INT over expected.

Take Young’s bad luck, Houston’s good luck, and the solid matchup, and we’re at a spot where Bryce Young should be solidly favored to avoid throwing an INT in this one. That makes -114 at FanDuel an enticing bet.

Pick: Bryce Young Over 0.5 Interceptions (-114)

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By Nick Giffen

Laviska Shenault and DJ Chark have played together at both Jacksonville and now with Carolina. We should know by now that the two are nowhere near similar players, so with Shenault out, there should be no impact to Chark’s usage.

That’s good, because it seems books have maybe inflated this line a bit thinking that Chark may pick up an extra look or two with Shenault out.

However, the bigger factor here is the return of Miles Sanders, who’s been a target hog when healthy for the Panthers. With Houston playing zone defense at a top-five rate in the NFL, while both blitzing and getting pressure on QBs at bottom 12 rates, that should funnel a chunk of targets toward Sanders.

Chark has always been a deep-ball threat that’s thrived against man coverage rather than the zone. In fact, throughout his career, he’s constantly received a lower percentage of targets relative to the amount of zone coverage faced than his fellow wideouts.

There have only been two games when fellow wideouts Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo and Terrace Marshall Jr. have all been healthy for a full complement of snaps along with Chark. In those two games Chark has averaged just 65% of snaps compared to 95% otherwise.

I’m expecting Chark to remain in that lower bracket of snaps, and with more passes funneled Sanders’ way plus a schematically bad matchup for Chark, I have him around 55% to stay under 2.5 receptions. That makes this playable all the way down to even money.

This prop is available at +130 at bet365, if that book is available to you.

Pick: D.J. Chark Under 2.5 Receptions (+125)

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By Billy Ward

This was one of my favorite angles in Eagles games last season, where they frequently rushed out to big first-half leads, before killing the clock in the second half and slowing the game down.

The trend hasn’t quite been as strong this year, with Philadelphia finding themselves in more close games. However, they’ve still averaged an extra 2.4 points in the first halves of games compared to the second.

This week, they’re favored by seven against the Commanders, so odds are they’ll be able to control this one for the bulk of the contest. That’s the type of game script we’re hoping for if playing this angle.

Especially considering how both teams match up. Washington ranks 11th by DVOA in rushing offense, but 30th in passing offense. Conversely, their pass defense ranks 27th, but they’re solid against the run at 14th.

All of which means a scenario where the Eagles are running more but the Commanders are forced to throw should limit scoring. Assuming Philadelphia plays most of the second half from in front, that’s what we should see here.

Of course, this is also a prime live-betting opportunity, in case you’d prefer to wait until the Eagles get their lead before making a bet.

Pick: Highest-Scoring Half — First (-110)

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By Nick Giffen

The rematch between the Commanders and Eagles makes the cut not because this game went to overtime earlier this year, but because the +1950 that FanDuel is hanging is just far too long.

In games where the home team is an underdog between six to eight points, and a total within a field goal of this game’s current total (43.5), overtime has occurred about once in 16 games since the extra point rules were changed in 2015.

While that’s not the only factor, it definitely gives us some wiggle room to the +1950 that’s being hung.
We’ll need it, because the team tendencies are not in our favor on this one.

Commanders kicker Joey Slye has not been great at extra points, making just 88.8% in his career compared to an NFL average above 94%. In addition, the Commanders also go for two-point conversions at a higher rate than average under Ron Rivera.

Unfortunately, the overtime market is pretty sharp this week, but this is the one game that’s showing at least 10% expected ROI, albeit barely.

This is playable down to +1875, so I’ll take a quarter-unit shot on a repeat overtime between the two NFC East rivals.

Pick: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1950)

By Billy Ward

Here are the three games I've targeted for this bet in Week 8:

1. Vikings-Packers +140 (BetMGM)
2. Jaguars-Steelers +130 (BetMGM or DraftKings)
3. Saints-Colts +140 (BetMGM)

There are plenty of close lines in Week 8, with a trio of games all checking in at spreads of two or less. Historically, those games should have a fair value of +120 on the no side of this bet, with all else being equal.

We’re in luck this week, though, as all else is not equal. Each of the games mentioned has totals under 44, with two of those checking in at just 41.

As we’ve touched on in the past, this bet primarily correlated with the spread – closer games make it less likely that one team scores three in a row. However, the total matters too, as less total scoring reduced the opportunities for three straight (duh).

The games at 41 should be slight favorites for the no side to hit, while Saints-Colts is closer to the +120 that all games with similar spreads provide.

While the edge is somewhat smaller on Saints-Colts, I still prefer taking all of these bets as a unit. We’ve hit precisely 50% of them so far this season, which tracks with the projected edge. However, it’s hard to pick and choose which of these to play.

I’m also showing a slight edge on Falcons-Titans thanks to the absurdly low total, though it lags enough behind these games to not fit neatly into the discussion. Still, at +135 odds you could certainly play all four and make out nicely by hitting two of them.

Picks

Vikings-Packers +140 (BetMGM)
Jaguars-Steelers +130 (BetMGM or DraftKings)
Saints-Colts +140 (BetMGM)

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By Sean Koerner

Tagovailoa has been held under this in 11 of 18 games (61%) he’s started and finished (or mostly finished) over the past two seasons. His average has been 4.8 rushing yards, but his median is just 0.5.

There has been a concerted effort to have him run less this year due to his concussion history, but he’s managed to just sneak over this three times with yardage totals of five, six and seven yards. He’s been a bit lucky to clear this at a 43% clip this season.

Considering Tagovailoa could clear this prop at some point during the game, only to kneel the ball 1-3 times at the end and the under to ultimately hit, getting exposure to four yards being graded as a win is offering sneaky value. In Week 1, if the Dolphins had gotten the ball back just a few seconds earlier, he would've kneeled down three times instead of just twice and finished with 4 yards. In Week 2, he muffed the snap in the victory formation and they ruled it as a fumble instead of a run of minus-1 yard. In Weeks 3 and 6, the Dolphins were up by so much that it was Mike White who was in the game by the time it came time for the victory formation. In Week 5, if the Dolphins had gotten the ball back 50-60 seconds sooner, it would have led to a couple more kneel-downs and for the under to hit.

TL;DR if you were to reshuffle some of Tagovailoa’s rushing attempts this season and see a bit more normal kneel-down usage, he could have easily been held under this about 71% of the time this season.

Also, the Patriots have only allowed two QBs to clear this number this season: Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.

QB rush props are one of the trickiest to project, but I would feel comfortable saying this has around a 63% chance of staying under. I’m sure Mike McDaniel and Tagovailoa himself wouldn’t mind if he stayed under this, as well.

Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 4.5 Rushing Yards (-125)