Packers vs Eagles Odds & Pick: Bet the Underdog on Sunday Night Football
Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers (left) and Aaron Jones.
- The Eagles are 6.5-point favorites against Green Bay on Sunday Night Football.
- The 4-7 Packers can't afford another loss to have any hope this season.
- Chris Raybon previews the game and picks a side below.
Packers vs Eagles Odds
A lot has changed since these teams in 2020, when Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 30-16 win and would go on to win the first of two consecutive MVPs while Jalen Hurts came on in relief of Carson Wentz in what would go down as the start of the Hurts era in Philadelphia.
Can this lesser version of the Packers we've come to know over the past few seasons compete with the 9-1 Eagles?
Packers vs. Eagles Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Packers and Eagles match up statistically:
Packers vs Eagles DVOA Breakdown
This is the type of game the Packers are likely to hang around.
All four Green Bay losses this season that came by more than six points were against defenses ranked in the top 12 in DVOA against the run. While the Eagles' run defense figures to trend up after signing Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph, they still enter Week 12 ranked 26th in DVOA. Being able to lean on their top-five run game, featuring Aaron Jones, allows the Packers to maximize an offense that is still solid but no longer elite in other areas. Green Bay ranks 16th in passing DVOA, 14th in third-down conversion rate (41.4%) and 10th in red-zone TD conversion rate (53.1%).
The Packers' pass offense is trending up now that they have their three preferred starters healthy at the same time in Allen Lazard, Christian Watson and Randall Cobb. All three play in the slot at least 33% of the time, which will allow Rodgers to avoid cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the perimeter and instead target nickelback Josiah Scott, whose 50.8 PFF coverage grade ranks 95th of 120 qualified corners.
The Packers have excellent boundary corners of their own in Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas, which is crucial when going up against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Alexander's 76.7 PFF coverage grade ranks 15th among qualified corners while Douglas' 72.6 mark is 26th. The Eagles offense took a major hit with the loss of tight end Dallas Goedert, who provides an efficient third option in matchups like these. Without his top options in tougher matchups than usual, Hurts could struggle against a Green Bay pass rush that generates pressure at the eighth highest rate (23.6%), per Pro Football Reference. Hurts' passer rating drops from 116.5 in a clean pocket to 78.4 under pressure, per PFF.
Goedert's loss also hurts in the run game, but the Eagles should still have an edge in that area. With that said, the Packers' run defense has been heading in the right direction.
Per RBsDM.com, they ranked 30th in rushing expected points added per play from Weeks 1-7 (0.055), but are 16th since Week 8 (-0.042). The Packers' run defense is coming off its best performance of the year, holding Derrick Henry to just 87 yards on 28 carries (3.1 yards per carry) last Thursday.
The Eagles are undoubtedly one of the best teams in the NFL, but their early season dominance also required a fair amount of luck, which has started to run out in recent weeks.
After starting the year 5-2 against the spread (ATS) — all as a favorite — the Eagles have failed to cover their last three spreads as sizable favorites against the Texans (-14), Commanders (-11) and Colts (-6.5). This is yet another game where the perceived discrepancy between the Eagles and their opponent is greater than the actual discrepancy. According to the Action Network Luck Rankings, the Eagles are the NFL's second-luckiest team while the Packers are 27th. The unlucky side has covered 57% of the time this season when the luck differential gap is 16 or more.
The Packers should also benefit from long rest after playing on Thursday Night Football. It allows Rodgers' broken thumb to heal and for him to get more reps with his optimal receiving corps of Lazard, Watson, and Cobb. It also allows for more recovery time for offensive lineman David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, both of whom have played well when on the field but needed their reps managed after returning from serious knee injuries.
Per our Action Labs data, road underdogs by a field goal to a TD on 10 days of rest are 33-17 (66%) ATS when facing an opponent on normal rest since 2010.
Rest notwithstanding, it has been tough for favorites to cover big numbers with scoring down this season, which has created tighter games. Per our Action Labs data, underdogs by more than a field goal in a game with a total of 47 or less are 49-22 (69%) this season, beating the spread by an average of 4.1 points per game.
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