Packers vs. Saints Picks: How We’re Betting This Spread & Total On Sunday Night Football
Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: Alvin Kamara
The New Orleans Saints will host the Green Bay Packers for a Sunday Night Football showdown.
Our staff has you covered with how they’re betting the spread and total.
Packers vs. Saints Picks
We’ve included books offering the best lines as of writing, but you can compare real-time odds here.
Stuckey: Saints -3.5; Under 52
You can read my comprehensive breakdown of the matchup here. Otherwise, let’s get right down to business.
I bet the Saints at -3 (-110) earlier in the week, but I would bet them at anything under 4. Of course getting the 3 is ideal — it’s still available at a couple books as of writing (shop for the best line with our NFL odds page), but if you don’t have access to 3, I would pay up to 15 cents to grab it.
As for the total, I like the under at anything 52 or higher. Assuming Davante Adams (game-time decision) is ultimately ruled out like Michael Thomas, these teams will be limited from a downfield passing perspective. As a result, I expect heavy ground-based game scripts from both teams. And this Saints defense can match up with Green Bay’s offense — especially without Adams.
PJ Walsh: Saints -3.5
I’m relying heavily on the contrarian value the Saints provide while also leaning heavily on our NFL PRO Report.
Aaron Rodgers looks like the Rodgers of old, while New Orleans just lost by 10 to Las Vegas in front of a nationally-televised Monday Night Football audience.
Of course recreational bettors — 61% according to our public betting data — are jumping at the chance to grab the Packers getting points, but sharps are coming in hard on the Saints.
As you can see in the screenshot of our PRO Report above, sharps are dropping big bets on Drew Brees and Co. Our top NFL betting experts are also aligned with New Orleans.
In a classic bounce-back spot, I’m following the pros and laying the number with the Saints.
Brandon Anderson: Live First-Half Underdog
Sunday night, under the lights, Michaels and Collinsworth, Rodgers and Brees.
It doesn’t get much better than this — unless they meet again in the playoffs, this could very well be the last meeting between two legendary quarterbacks.
Fine, it could be better. Michael Thomas and Davante Adams could be healthy, and they’re not. And it would be so much more fun if this was in front of a packed out Superdome with 74,000 Saints fans going nuts for Sunday Night Football.
As it is, it feels like this game is a coin flip that’s still pricing in Brees at home in primetime. We know he’s darn near unbeatable there, but while this game as at home, he won’t have that huge crowd at his back tonight. And neither of these guys will have their go-to target.
Expect a much cagier match, and maybe a bit lower scoring than we might’ve gotten in another timeline.
But neither Rodgers nor Brees will make any excuses, and neither one will step down. This absolutely feels like one of those games where the last team with the ball wins. Credit the Green Bay and New Orleans defenses, but I am not counting either of these QBs out at any point until the clock reads zeroes.
I think the smart play is waiting for either team to grab a first half lead, watching that live moneyline, then pouncing on the underdog. I don’t really care if either team is up 10 early — this matchup is destined to come down to the final minutes and the last possession.
I just want the best odds on my coin flip. I’ll let destiny decide the rest from there.
I’ll personally be looking for +200 or better. But wait until you think the live moneyline odds are best and pounce sometime mid-to-late first half. Then enjoy the ride, and may the best legend win.