Ravens vs Panthers NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks
Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson.
- The Ravens are 13-point favorites over the Panthers in Week 11.
- Baltimore has Mark Andrews back, which is key to its offense.
- Landon Silinsky breaks down the game and makes his pick below.
Ravens vs Panthers Odds
The Panthers have been a completely different team since firing Matt Rhule in Week 5. Since Steve Wilks took over as interim coach, the team is 2-3 and could very easily be 3-2 if not for a hectic finish to a loss against the Falcons.
Turning to P.J. Walker and benching Baker Mayfield also has this offense looking much more potent, while D'Onta Foreman has taken on the "Derrick Henry Lite" role for this offense, and it has worked to perfection.
As for the Ravens, they're getting stud tight end Mark Andrews back this week and are coming off their bye at 6-3. While the spread is 13, it's not indicative of the way Carolina has been playing of late, and it will be interesting to see how the game transpires.
Ravens vs. Panthers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Ravens and Panthers match up statistically:
Ravens vs. Panthers DVOA Breakdown
With Andrews back from injury, the Panthers have done a pretty good job at limiting tight end production this year, especially compared to how they've fared against running backs and wide receivers.
I bring this up because Baltimore's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries with Rashod Batemen out for the season. I would expect the Ravens to lean on their running game in this spot as they get Andrews back up to speed.
Despite losing J.K. Dobbins to a knee injury, this running back room has not missed a beat, piecing together the NFL's No. 1-ranked DVOA rushing attack. Obviously, when you have Lamar Jackson, you're going to be an elite rushing team, but it's still impressive when you consider Baltimore is getting it done with Kenyan Drake, Justice Hill and Gus Edwards in the backfield
Panthers +13 | Ravens -13
On the other side, Carolina ranks 22nd in rush defense DVOA this season and recently got torched by Joe Mixon to the tune of 153 yards and a whopping five touchdowns (only four rushing, to be fair).
Since trading Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, Foreman has put a stranglehold on this backfield, running for more than 100 yards on three different occasions, while getting touch totals of 26 and 31 in two of his past three games. He did get game-scripted out of play against the Bengals, which is a distinct possibility again this week. That would be disastrous for Carolina, as it ranks dead last in the NFL in pass offense DVOA.
While Walker has been serviceable, the Ravens have gotten themselves up to 11th in pass defense DVOA, and outside of that one outlier game against Miami, have been really good on defense overall.
This game sets up as one that the Ravens should control from the jump, especially on the ground. That's by far the biggest mismatch in this game, and John Harbaugh will look to exploit it.
It's incredibly hard to lay 13 points in an NFL game, no matter how inferior the opponent is. Baltimore is clearly the far superior team at every level over Carolina, but some wonky things can happen, so I'll refrain from going there even though I lean toward the Ravens here.
Instead, we will look at this total, which is sitting at 41.5. We know how Baltimore wants to move the ball, as the team ranks 27th in the NFL in pass play percentage on the season. With Carolina being attackable on the ground, I expect there to be a ton of rushing attempts in this game on both sides, which kills a ton of clock and ultimately limits the number of plays that are run.
Carolina will look to lean on Foreman early and often in this spot, but once they go down a score or two, it will simply be too hard for them to sustain drives against this Ravens defense.
It would not shock me to see a 27-3 type of game here, and for that reason, I like the under in this spot. Baltimore should have its way with this Panthers team and control time of possession.
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