Patriots’ Free Agency Moves Improve Their Super Bowl Odds To 30-1

Patriots’ Free Agency Moves Improve Their Super Bowl Odds To 30-1 article feature image
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Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Bill Belichick

If the first day of the NFL negotiation period is any indication, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots don’t want another 7-9 season.

The Patriots agreed to terms with six free agents, spending more guaranteed money in one day than they have in any offseason over the last 10 years.

Within seven hours of the 52-hour negotiation period opening on Monday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the Patriots agreed to terms with the following six free agents:

  • TE Jonnu Smith: Four years, $50 million
  • LB Matt Judon: Four years, $56 million
  • CB Jalen Mills: Four years, $9 million
  • DT Davon Godchaux: Two years, up to $16 million
  • WR Nelson Agholor: Two years, $26 million
  • WR Kendrick Bourne: Three years, $22.5 million

As a result, their Super Bowl odds have moved from 33-1 to 30-1 at DraftKings, which translates to an increase in implied probability from 2.9% to 3.2% (convert odds using our calculator).

Smith joins the Patriots after a successful run with the Tennessee Titans and gives help to a receiving room in desperate need for a boost, but our trio of fantasy football experts aren’t quite sold on his fit in New England.

The team later reached an agreement with Agholor to increase the options at receiver.

Judon comes over from the Baltimore Ravens, where he recorded 34.5 sacks as an outside linebacker in five seasons. Judon, along with Godchaux, will be counted on to improve a defense that ranked bottom-10 in the NFL in rush defense and sack percentage.

Mills has played both cornerback and safety for the Eagles over the last five seasons.

The four moves followed the team agreeing to a deal to bring back quarterback Cam Newton. While the possibility remains the team will bring in another quarterback to either start ahead of Newton or at least compete with him, Newton looks like the starter as of now.

FanDuel had the Patriots at 40-1 to win the Super Bowl when the Newton deal was reported. That number did not change after Monday’s moves.

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