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Patriots vs Jets Odds & Picks | NFL Week 8

Patriots vs Jets Odds & Picks | NFL Week 8 article feature image
Credit:

Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images. Pictured: Jack Jones.

  • The upstart Jets are home underdogs against the Patriots in Week 8.
  • Mac Jones will start in New York after being taken out of the Pats' loss to the Bears.
  • The Great Foosini breaks down the game and makes a pick below.

Patriots vs Jets Odds

Sunday, Oct. 30
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Patriots Odds -3
Jets Odds +3
Moneyline -164 / +138
Over/Under 39.5
Odds via FanDuel.

What a time to be alive for Jets fans. They’re 5-2 with playoff aspirations, a top-six cornerback and a stifling defense.

However, like all Jets’ seasons there has to be a setback. That came when New York lost offensive rookie of the year hopeful Breece Hall, along with the incredibly versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker.

Joe Douglas made quick work to add James Robinson, but that probably won’t make a difference in this game. The Jets don’t have much to add on the offensive line to replace Vera-Tucker, so it might be a tough game offensively.

The Patriots are coming off of a horrible loss at home against Chicago, where they allowed several long third downs and let Justin Fields’ athleticism beat them. The most concerning and intriguing storyline is New England’s quarterback situation. Bill Belichick had a quick trigger for Mac Jones, pulling him early for Bailey Zappe.

The Patriots fans I know were thrilled with this move, but they quickly realized that Zappe is, at best, on par with Jones and likely inferior. He was buoyed by two matchups where the Patriots could control the clock and let their defense suffocate the Lions and Browns.

This matchup is worrisome for the playoff hopeful Jets, especially as they embark on three divisional matchups in a row, including a pair of games against New England. If the Jets can get through this stretch with a win or two, they could be in great position moving forward. Let’s get into the analysis.

Patriots vs. Jets Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Patriots and Jets match up statistically:

Patriots vs. Jets DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 23 10
Pass DVOA 22 10
Rush DVOA 16 14
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 22 9
Pass DVOA 23 5
Rush DVOA 11 28
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DVOA analysis shows this could be a really close game. More importantly, the spread also indicates that, but what isn’t shown above is the Jets’ top-three special teams unit, which could prove to be the difference maker in an otherwise even matchup. There are a lot of question marks coming into the game on both sides of the ball, making it incredibly difficult to predict the final result.

Missing the potential offensive rookie of the year and a huge piece of the offensive line is going to hurt the Jets, but to what degree? Running backs have proven to be replaceable, but Hall is clearly special, and his absence will subtract from offensive output.

Can the Jets figure out a way to protect Zach Wilson from a formidable defense?


Bet New England vs New York
Patriots -2.5 | Jets +2.5


The Patriots also have question marks of their own, and at the most important position on the field. Belichick’s handling of the situation is unconventional at best, and asinine at worst.

Does Belichick actually think Zappe could be the better quarterback? Regardless, Jones gets the nod this week against the Jets.

Not as widely discussed is the Patriots’ defense, which is performing at a high level. While New York and the rest of the league discuss Sauce Gardner’s lock down status, New England has a star rookie of their own in Jack Jones from Arizona St. According to PFF, Jones is the number one corner in the league, while Gardner is sixth. Both squads possess top corners and their pass defense DVOA reflects it.

Let’s look at the line functionality here. New England opened up as a 1.5-point favorite on the road in New York (Jersey), but has moved to a juiced 2.5-point favorite, likely due to the Jets’ injuries and perhaps some renewed faith in Mac Jones.

I don’t disagree that the Patriots should be favored. The Jets have punched well above their weight throughout the season and New England is the better long-term team. That said, based upon the team stats and performance to date, can we really justify the Patriots being a favorite of almost a field goal?

Betting Picks

Both teams have a pretty weak track record and have beat up on the same bottom-feeding squads. There are also a ton of question marks on offense for both teams. That said, defense is not much of a concern for either New York or New England.

Given these offensive concerns, formidable defenses and the expected game script, we’re likely going to see a controlled clock and defensive stands. I’m giving a strong look to the under as anything above 40 seems like it’ll be a reach.

Quickslip: Under 39.5

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