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NFL Pick’Em Pool Picks: Bills Are Strongest Straight-Up Pick While Vikings Headline ATS Picks For Week 4

NFL Pick’Em Pool Picks: Bills Are Strongest Straight-Up Pick While Vikings Headline ATS Picks For Week 4 article feature image

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images. Pictured: Bills mascot

  • Looking for the best straight up and against the spread (ATS) picks heading into Week 4?
  • Our expert has you covered with his confidence rankings for NFL pick'em pools.

Editor’s Note: The following data has been updated as of Saturday to reflect Sean Koerner’s latest projections.

After overcoming the No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars in a surprising Week 1 victory, the Texans have lost two in a row. Now Houston draws the Bills in Buffalo, where the Texans should find themselves on their way to 1-3.

It’s no surprise the Bills sit atop Sean Koerner’s straight-up (SU) rankings for Week 4 with a 92% win probability that’s 17% higher than the next-best teams.

If you’re in an against the spread (ATS) pool, though, don’t sweat — Sean has you covered as well. With a 6.3% edge based on his projected spread of Saints -6 vs. the actual spread of Saints -7, the Giants lead his ATS rankings (compare real-time NFL odds here).

Below you’ll find his full confidence rankings for SU and ATS picks heading into Week 4. Note that they’re based on his power ratings, which help power our NFL PRO Projections. They account for various factors such as injuries and travel.

Ranking NFL Pick’Em Picks

JUMP TO: Straight Up | Against the Spread

NFL Straight Up Picks

Conf Team Opp Win Prob%
1 Bills vs. HOU 91%
2 Chiefs @ PHI 75%
3 Bengals vs. JAX 74%
4 Buccaneers @ NE 72%
5 Saints vs. NYG 70%
6 Packers vs. PIT 69%
7 Titans @ NYJ 69%
8 Cowboys vs. CAR 65%
9 Rams vs. ARI 65%
10 Chargers vs. LV 62%
11 Bears vs. DET 61%
12 Dolphins vs. IND 58%
13 Broncos vs. BAL 56%
14 49ers vs. SEA 56%
15 Football Team @ ATL 54%
16 Vikings vs. CLE 53%
17 Browns @ MIN 47%
18 Falcons vs. WAS 46%
19 Seahawks @ SF 44%
20 Ravens @ DEN 44%
21 Colts @ MIA 42%
22 Lions @ CHI 39%
23 Raiders @ LAC 38%
24 Cardinals @ LAR 35%
25 Panthers @ DAL 35%
26 Jets vs. TEN 31%
27 Steelers @ GB 31%
28 Giants @ NO 30%
29 Patriots vs. TB 28%
30 Jaguars @ CIN 26%


I’ll update the embedded table featuring my ATS confidence ratings throughout the week, but your contest may use different lines, so I’ve also created this downloadable spreadsheet so you can calculate ratings specific to your pool.

Simply add the odds your contest is using into Column D, then the edge and ratings will automatically recalculate in Column F.

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