Ravens vs. Browns Spread & Total Picks: How To Bet Monday Night Football
Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Marquise Brown.
The Cleveland Browns host the Baltimore Ravens for an AFC North showdown on Monday Night Football.
The Ravens blew out the Browns when the teams first met in Week 1, but a lot has happened since then: The 7-5 Ravens went from entering the season as Super Bowl favorites to now sitting third in the division. They dealt with a COVID-19 breakout that sidelined Lamar Jackson and a bevy of other players in Week 12 — the middle of a three-loss streak Baltimore finally snapped last week. The 9-3 Browns, on the other hand, are on a four-win streak entering Monday night.
Still, the Ravens are positioned as 3-point road favorites for this primetime showdown, but where can we find betting value on this matchup? Our staff details how they're betting the spread, total and player props below.
Ravens vs. Browns Picks
Ravens -3 at Browns
Brandon Anderson: The Browns are flying high after their biggest win of the season.
They've been awesome against bad teams all season and are 7-0 against teams .500 or worse, but now they're 2-3 against winning teams with last week's win over the Titans serving as the Browns' best performance in years. Cleveland could do no wrong in the first half, piling up an incredible 38 points while running Tennessee off the field. Baker Mayfield lit the Titans defense up.
It's hard to remember how many years it’s been since the Browns looked this good.
Cleveland has come a long way since playing Baltimore in Week 1. The Ravens won, 38-6, and looked like the Super Bowl contender everyone expected them to be while the Browns looked like, well, the Browns. But Cleveland is 9-2 since that game and the Ravens would not even make the playoffs if they started today.
The Ravens offense has let them down, but their defense has still been outstanding, and that’s why I still like them here.
Baltimore is especially strong in run defense and should be able to stay home and keep Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in check. That means Mayfield might have to win this game against this nasty Ravens defense, and I’m just not ready to trust Baker in this huge of a spot yet — or Cleveland, for that matter.
Baltimore has won 21-of-25 games against Cleveland, and this game is everything for the Ravens. Win this one and get to 8-5 with the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals left on the schedule, and the Ravens can coast safely to the playoffs. But lose, and the Ravens drop to 7-6 and are in serious trouble, especially since this would also likely cost them a key tiebreaker.
The Ravens are in major jeopardy of missing the playoffs with a loss here, so if you do want to bet against them, the right play is going against their playoff odds. I’m not ready to go there yet, and still think this team is going to round into peak just in time for the games that matter, and that starts on Monday night.
Under 45.5
Chris Raybon: I have this game projected at Ravens -3 with a total of 45. The Ravens are likely to be the hungrier team after a midseason slide has left them currently on the outside looking in of the playoff picture.
Head coach John Harbaugh is 10-0-1 against the spread in divisional road games from Week 10 on (excluding Week 17), according to our Bet Labs data. Much of the value has been bet out of the line, however, as teams are just 42-69-2 (38%) when the line moves two or more points in their favor in Monday or Thursday night matchups.
Betting a side largely comes down to which side of 3 the number is on — if the number is under 3, I lean Ravens. But over 3, I lean Browns.
This should be a classic hard-fought late-season divisional matchup, which has tended to favor the under, especially in primetime.
Marquise Brown Over 42.5 Rec Yards
Mike Randle: Much like the Colts’ T.Y. Hilton, Brown has finally caught fire at the end of the season. He has eight targets in each of the past two weeks and has totaled nine receptions, 124 yards and a touchdown. Brown’s 24.3% team target share is 15th among all wide receivers.
Even though Baltimore has the league’s lowest passing rate (50.1%), Brown still maintains his role as one of the NFL's best deep targets. His 21 deep targets is fifth at the position, and is currently 12th in air yards. Even in a disappointing year, Brown has exceeded this total five times.
Now Brown will face a Browns secondary that's allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. The Browns will be without top cornerback Denzel Ward, which puts Brown against Kevin Johnson, who ranks 101st in coverage rating per PlayerProfiler.
With a reasonable over/under total of 45.5 points, Brown should see enough volume to crest this 42.5 yard target. Our FantasyLabs Player Prop tool projects Brown at 50 receiving yards, 17.6% above the target number.
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