Ravens vs Giants Odds & Picks | NFL Week 6

Ravens vs. Giants Odds

Sunday, Oct. 16

1 p.m. ET

CBS

After dropping its first two one-score games of the year, Baltimore held on against Cincinnati to pull out the victory. A divisional win is always nice, but it's even better when that win gets you into first place. 

Winning close games seems to be the Giants' strength. All five of New York’s games have been decided by one score, and the Giants have ended on top in four of them. Unfortunately, that impressive record still has them at third in the NFC East.

Oddsmakers believe that the records are a little misleading as the Ravens are heavy favorites despite having the inferior record. Let’s take a deeper dive into the matchup.

Ravens vs. Giants Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Ravens and Giants match up statistically:

Ravens vs. Giants DVOA Breakdown

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	2	25
Pass DVOA	2	24
Rush DVOA	13	21

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	12	14
Pass DVOA	15	10
Rush DVOA	6	26

Lamar Jackson made up for a couple of overthrows early in last Sunday night's win over the Bengals by leading the drive for a walk-off field goal. He did a good chunk of the work and rushed for 31 yards on that drive.

This season has been much like that drive for the Ravens’ offense, though: Jackson or bust.

In the passing game, Jackson has led the offense to the 11th-best net yards per attempt. On the ground, Baltimore has yet to find someone to complement his mobility. Jackson accounts for more than half of the Ravens' rushing yards with 374. No other back has more than 125. J.K. Dobbins has looked better each week, but he's yet to be given a full workload.

In terms of receiving weapons, the Ravens will still be without Rashod Bateman. This leaves the burden solely on Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay.

Andrews belongs in the discussion with Travis Kelce as the NFL's best tight end. Duvernay has played well, working his way up to PFF’s 15th-best receiver. Baltimore needs them to keep going at that pace since no other active Ravens receiver has more than 60 yards receiving on the year.

Defensively, the Ravens have adopted a go-big-or-go-home mentality. Their gambling has led to a league-best 11 turnovers on the year. However, this has bitten them in the butt as they allow the fourth most yards per drive and 10th most points per drive. We will see how well this game plan works against the Giants' fifth-fewest turnovers committed.

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Speaking of New York’s offense, it also leans on one player: Saquon Barkley. Like the Ravens, this one-man attack is working.

Last season, the Giants ranked bottom two in both points and yards per drive. New York is up to 15th and 17th in those categories. While a move toward average seems underwhelming, it has been a drastic improvement for the Giants. 

Whether it is new head coach Brian Daboll’s scheme or Barkley simply being healthy is unknown, but Barkley is up to 5.5 yards per carry, a career high, and 6.2 yards per target, the second best of his career. It'll be tough to keep that pace up, but the Giants will remain capable if Barkley does.

Defensively, the Giants have a big revenge game at hand. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale will be taking on the offense he coached against in practice for three years.

Martindale's blitz-heavy style and situational scheme have been the drivers of the Giants’ defensive success. New York is fifth in third-down conversion rate and seventh in red-zone conversion percentage. We'll see if his knowledge of the Ravens offense will provide an added benefit or if the Ravens’ knowledge of his scheme will be costly.

Betting Picks

The Giants defense should have an edge here with Martindale's knowledge of the Ravens and specifically Jackson. However, we also know that New York’s aggressive style lends itself to it being beat on the backend. Jackson grades 77.6 against the blitz with seven touchdowns to just one interception this season. This looks like the edge goes to the Ravens’ offense. 

On the flip side, the Ravens rank 26th in yards per carry allowed. Against a team built around its running back, this could be a major problem. However, the Ravens have circumvented this problem by forcing teams to throw. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL with 16.4 points per game in the first half. The Giants are way down at 28th with 6.6 points per game in the first half.

I expect Baltimore to be aggressive early and force the ball out of Barkley's hands by scoring. The Giants' passing attack ranks last in net yards per attempt. 

I trust Jackson will show why he should be MVP this season with a big showing against his old defensive coordinator. The Giants will be in a position where Barkley cannot save them by being superhuman. 

Back the Ravens to put together a full game and strike midnight for the Giants' Cinderella story.

Quickslip: Ravens -6| Bet to -6.5