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Saints vs Cardinals Odds & Predictions: Thursday Night Football

Saints vs Cardinals Odds & Predictions: Thursday Night Football article feature image
  • Saints vs. Cardinals kicks off Week 7 in the NFL on Thursday Night Football.
  • Andy Dalton will start for New Orleans, despite Jameis Winston being active.
  • Sean Koerner previews the matchup and makes his Saints vs. Cardinals pick below.

Saints vs. Cardinals Odds

Thursday, Oct. 20
8:15 p.m. ET
Amazon Prime Video
Saints Odds +2.5
Cardinals Odds -2.5
Moneyline +120 / -140
Over/Under 44
Odds via DraftKings.

We might finally see some touchdowns this week on Thursday Night Football, but that doesn’t disqualify the under.

Let’s find a Saints vs. Cardinals pick to kick off Week 7.

Saints vs. Cardinals Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Saints and Cardinals match up statistically:

Saints vs. Cardinals DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 18 20
Pass DVOA 26 24
Rush DVOA 2 11
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 26 18
Pass DVOA 27 21
Rush DVOA 20 14

When the Saints Have the Ball

New Orleans is dealing with a plethora of injuries on offense. The Saints will be without receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, tight end Adam Trautman and left guard Andrus Peat. The Saints still haven’t announced whether it will be Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton under center for Thursday’s game, but the belief is Dalton will be getting the nod.

Either way, it’ll be a tougher matchup for the Saints as receiver Chris Olave is their only real threat in the passing game and the Cardinals have been very good against No. 1 receivers, ranking second in DVOA. That means we could see the Saints lean on Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill with a run-heavy game plan.


Bet Saints vs. Cardinals at FanDuel
Saints +2.5 | Cardinals -2.5


When the Cardinals Have the Ball

The Cardinals will be welcoming back DeAndre Hopkins, who has wrapped up his six-game suspension. He will be facing a Saints defense that will be without shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore for the second straight game. New Orleans has been gashed by top wideouts over the past three games, allowing big games to Ja’Marr Chase (7/132/2), Tyler Lockett (5/104/2) and Justin Jefferson (10/147/0).

However, the return of Hopkins is unlikely going to be enough to fix a Cardinals offense that has only averaged 19.0 points a game this season. Things have gotten so bad that Kliff Kingsbury is considering giving up play-calling duties.

The injury report is devastating for the Cardinals offense this week. Marquise Brown suffered a foot injury that will knock him out for at least a month. They might also be without their top two running backs in James Conner and Darrel Williams for the second straight game.

Most importantly, they will be without both left guard Justin Pugh and center Rodney Hudson this week. Arizona will have to start Max Garcia at left guard and Sean Harlow at center, which will be a huge setback for the offensive line. The Cardinals offense may get back on track at some point this season, but with the injuries to the offensive line and the short week to prepare, I’m not expecting much improvement this week.


FanDuel Odds Boost: Hopkins to Score 1+ TDs & 60+ Receiving Yards


Betting Picks

Considering the number of key injuries on both offenses, I think the under is the way to attack this game.

The Saints have run the ball at the highest rate on early downs in neutral situations (even more than the Bears and Falcons!) and I think they’ll continue to establish the run here with the Cardinals being very good against opposing No. 1 receivers.

The Cardinals have been trailing at a league-high average of 43 minutes, 24 seconds per game. They have rarely played with a lead this season, so as 2.5-point home favorites, we could see their offense be a bit more balanced. Kyler Murray’s 6.6 average intended air yards is the fifth lowest among qualified quarterbacks this season, which means it’s unlikely we will see many explosive plays from a Cardinals offense that may be beyond repair right now.

This number has dropped to 43.5 at some books, but I would make sure to get it at 44 because that’s a key number when it comes to totals. Common scores like 24-20 or 27-17 would result in a push at 44, as opposed to a loss with 43.5.

DraftKings has the total still at 44, as of Thursday at 6:15 p.m. ET.

Pick: Under 44

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