Chiefs vs Seahawks Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet This Road Underdog
Steph Chambers/Getty Images Pictured: Geno Smith.
- The Chiefs are favored by 10.5 points against the Seahawks on Christmas Eve.
- Seattle has the firepower to potentially hang around with the Kansas City offense.
- John LanFranca previews the game and makes his betting pick below.
Chiefs vs Seahawks Odds
Despite the Chiefs dominance in November and December in recent years (34-5 straight up), Patrick Mahomes-led teams have only covered the spread at a 45.9% rate in those months. Mahomes is 21-23-1 in his career in the regular season at Arrowhead stadium.
So, where does that leave us with a Chiefs vs Seahawks pick?
The Chiefs are constantly asked to cover huge numbers by sportsbooks, as bookmakers know the money will almost always flow in on what has been the best offense in football over the past half-decade. This consistently inflates the number Kansas City has to cover, and this week is no different against a team that has failed to cover in five straight games.
Once again, I believe we are getting several points of value with the underdog in this game, especially with the current state of the Chiefs defense.
Chiefs vs Seahawks Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Chiefs and Seahawks match up statistically:
Chiefs vs Seahawks DVOA Breakdown
Geno Smith has played well during the Seahawks recent ATS skid. Smith posted his two highest passing yardage totals of the season in weeks 12 and 13, and has 11 touchdowns to just four interceptions over the past five games.
Smith is still the league’s leader in completion percentage, as well as completion percentage over expectation. Smith ranks as the fifth-best quarterback in football in both QBR (63.9) and Football Outsiders’ defense adjusted yards above replacement metric. It’s worth noting the Chiefs have only played against one quarterback this season who bests Smith in both of those categories — Josh Allen.
Bet Seattle vs. Kansas City at FanDuel
Smith has a passer rating of 114.5 this season when he is kept clean inside the pocket. In this game, I am expecting the Seahawks coaching staff to put Smith in the shotgun often. Seattle is already using shotgun on nearly 70% of snaps this season, but it’s a specific weakness of this Chiefs defense, as they rank 23rd in defensive DVOA versus opposing offenses this year when they are in shotgun.
Over the past three weeks, this Chiefs defense ranks 28th overall in defensive DVOA and 29th in DVOA versus the pass. It’s actually rather incredible.
The Chiefs defense has given up multiple touchdown passes to every quarterback it has faced in 2022, with the only exceptions being Malik Willis and Bryce Perkins, both of whom were starting their first NFL game.
The Chiefs defense has played poorly in recent weeks, but the Seahawks defense has been even worse. With that said, I don't believe we'll see an offensive explosion from Kansas City's offense.
Five of the six Chiefs home games have gone under the total this season. In fact, the Chiefs have only reached 30 points once at home this season and are averaging only 25.6 points per game at Arrowhead.
This offense plays better on the road, scoring 30 or more in five of eight away games. One reason for this is quite simple — the defense plays better at home, which in turn allows the Chiefs to run the ball more often. With the Seahawks defense ranking 30th in the league against the rush since Week 9, allowing 5.18 yards per carry to opposing running backs, do not be surprised if we see more of the same in the cold temperatures on Saturday afternoon.
Underdogs of more than seven points this season are 26-15-1 (63.4%) against the spread. Since the beginning of 2018, underdogs of six or more points playing against teams with a better than 75% win percentage are 44-33 (57.1%) against the spread. In Pete Carroll’s career, he is 46-30-3 (60.5%) against the number when catching points. When Carroll is an underdog of three points or more, he is 34-19-3 (64.2%) against the spread.
Under Andy Reid, when the Chiefs are favorites of seven points or higher, the under has cashed at a 70% rate. The temperatures in Kansas City on Saturday will be nearing single digits and the winds will be around 13 mph.
I can’t back the under with the way these two defenses have played recently, but I do believe the Chiefs running game will be featured a bit more than most expect and that points may be a touch harder to to come by than we’ve typically seen in games involving these teams.
In a game in which I can back one of the better quarterbacks in the league this season catching double-digit points against a porous defense, I will gladly take the value with the visiting Seahawks.
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