Steelers vs Colts Odds, Pick, Prediction: Betting the Monday Night Underdog

Steelers vs. Colts Odds

Monday, Nov. 28

8:15 p.m. ET

ESPN

The Colts and Steelers have had disappointing seasons, and this matchup will serve as pretty much an elimination game. Win out in the loaded AFC and maybe there's hope, but one more loss could essentially put a pin in any postseason hopes.

So, who will get it done in a battle of a rookie quarterback and a veteran head coach against a veteran quarterback and a rookie head coach? Let's dive in.

Steelers vs. Colts Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Steelers and Colts match up statistically:

Steelers vs. Colts DVOA Breakdown

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	22	10
Pass DVOA	21	14
Rush DVOA	23	6

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	32	14
Pass DVOA	31	18
Rush DVOA	32	7

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This sets up as a pretty favorable matchup for the Steelers defense, which now has T.J. Watt back in the mix. Historically, Pittsburgh has allowed one fewer yard per play with Watt on the field, a stunning statistic.

He should create chaos in the backfield going up against right tackle Braden Smith. The same can be said for Alex Highsmith, who quietly has eight sacks and will be going up against a rookie left tackle.

That spells doom for the statuesque Matt Ryan, who will operate behind an offensive line that ranks in the bottom five in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. The struggles up front are one of the primary reasons the Colt offense ranks 31st in the league in EPA per play and last in DVOA.

Speaking of Ryan, he averages the lowest depth of target in the NFL, which should be welcome news for a Steelers defense that has struggled in the explosive pass department. Nobody has allowed more 15-yard passes than Pittsburgh.

Betting Picks

The Steelers have fared pretty well defending the run, which should set them up for success against Jonathan Taylor. Pittsburgh will get Indianapolis into enough passing downs to force Ryan into a few critical mistakes, which I believe will ultimately be the difference in what should be a low-scoring game.

On the other side of the ball, I don't expect Pittsburgh to get much of anything on the ground or through the air against a steady Indianapolis defense. However, Kenny Pickett should hit a few explosives, which may be all Pittsburgh needs against an Indianapolis stop unit dealing with a number of key injuries.

Also, the perception of the Steelers might be a bit flawed due to their impossibly difficult schedule to date. Just take a look at who Pittsburgh has played:

• Bengals (Twice)
• Patriots
• Browns
• Jets
• Bills
• Buccaneers
• Dolphins
• Eagles
• Saints

That's an absolute gauntlet and easily the hardest schedule in the league to date. Meanwhile, the Colts have had a fairly average slate.

I'd lean Pittsburgh here for the reasons I mentioned above, but I would really like a +3. If it never gets there, the moneyline is certainly an option if you don't want to take +2.5, although every point in this game is valuable since scoring will be at a premium. You can also potentially wait and see if you can get a field goal or better live.

Lastly, the Steelers are an ideal teaser piece since you can cross both 3 and 7 in a game with a very low total against a team that has four wins on the season by margins of 3, 3, 5 and 7.

As of 3 p.m. ET on Monday, BetRivers has moved the line to Steelers +3. Use our live NFL odds page to get the latest numbers so you can be sure to bet Pittsburgh at the key number.

Lean: Steelers +2.5 | Bet: Steelers +3

Bet Steelers +2.5 at FanDuel

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