Steelers vs Colts Odds, Pick, Prediction: Betting the Monday Night Underdog
Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: Kenny Pickett.
- The Colts are 2.5-point favorites against the Steelers.
- Both teams are clinging to playoff hopes entering Monday Night Football.
- Stuckey previews the game and makes his betting pick below.
Steelers vs. Colts Odds
|Steelers Odds||+2.5 (-114)|
|Colts Odds||-2.5 (-106)|
|Moneyline||+114 / -134|
|Over/Under||39.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest NFL odds here.|
The Colts and Steelers have had disappointing seasons, and this matchup will serve as pretty much an elimination game. Win out in the loaded AFC and maybe there’s hope, but one more loss could essentially put a pin in any postseason hopes.
So, who will get it done in a battle of a rookie quarterback and a veteran head coach against a veteran quarterback and a rookie head coach? Let’s dive in.
Steelers vs. Colts Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Steelers and Colts match up statistically:
Steelers vs. Colts DVOA Breakdown
This sets up as a pretty favorable matchup for the Steelers defense, which now has T.J. Watt back in the mix. Historically, Pittsburgh has allowed one fewer yard per play with Watt on the field, a stunning statistic.
He should create chaos in the backfield going up against right tackle Braden Smith. The same can be said for Alex Highsmith, who quietly has eight sacks and will be going up against a rookie left tackle.
Steelers +2.5 | Colts -2.5
That spells doom for the statuesque Matt Ryan, who will operate behind an offensive line that ranks in the bottom five in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. The struggles up front are one of the primary reasons the Colt offense ranks 31st in the league in EPA per play and last in DVOA.
Speaking of Ryan, he averages the lowest depth of target in the NFL, which should be welcome news for a Steelers defense that has struggled in the explosive pass department. Nobody has allowed more 15-yard passes than Pittsburgh.
The Steelers have fared pretty well defending the run, which should set them up for success against Jonathan Taylor. Pittsburgh will get Indianapolis into enough passing downs to force Ryan into a few critical mistakes, which I believe will ultimately be the difference in what should be a low-scoring game.
On the other side of the ball, I don’t expect Pittsburgh to get much of anything on the ground or through the air against a steady Indianapolis defense. However, Kenny Pickett should hit a few explosives, which may be all Pittsburgh needs against an Indianapolis stop unit dealing with a number of key injuries.
Also, the perception of the Steelers might be a bit flawed due to their impossibly difficult schedule to date. Just take a look at who Pittsburgh has played:
- Bengals (Twice)
That’s an absolute gauntlet and easily the hardest schedule in the league to date. Meanwhile, the Colts have had a fairly average slate.
I’d lean Pittsburgh here for the reasons I mentioned above, but I would really like a +3. If it never gets there, the moneyline is certainly an option if you don’t want to take +2.5, although every point in this game is valuable since scoring will be at a premium. You can also potentially wait and see if you can get a field goal or better live.
Lastly, the Steelers are an ideal teaser piece since you can cross both 3 and 7 in a game with a very low total against a team that has four wins on the season by margins of 3, 3, 5 and 7.
Lean: Steelers +2.5 | Bet: Steelers +3
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