Super Bowl 54 Betting Tip: Will the 49ers or Chiefs Force More Turnovers?
Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers
- Super Bowl 54 props provide insight into whether the San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs will commit more turnovers on Sunday.
- Using our Bet Labs software, we analyze what losing the turnover battle means for spread bettors in the Super Bowl.
In the 53 Super Bowls that have been played, one team has won the turnover battle 43 times. In the other 10 games there were either no turnovers or the teams had the same amount.
Turnovers decide games. In the 43 Super Bowls where one team had a better turnover differential, it hoisted the Lombardi Trophy 37 times (86.0%).
The teams that won the turnover battle on Super Sunday also covered the spread. These teams that forced more turnovers went 32-10-1 (76.2%) against the spread (ATS).
If you are having a hard time deciding between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 54 (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX), pick the one you think will win the turnover battle.
Of course, that is easier said than done. But the betting market can point us in the right direction.
Super Bowl 54 Betting Tip: 49ers vs. Chiefs Turnovers
Which team will commit more turnovers?
- 49ers -150
- Chiefs +110
There is a prop bet for everything in the Super Bowl and turnovers are no exception. According to the oddsmakers, the 49ers are favored to commit more turnovers on Sunday.
In the regular season the 49ers offense had 23 giveaways while the Chiefs turned it over 15 times. Jimmy Garoppolo (13) threw more interceptions than Patrick Mahomes (5).
The season-long data and betting markets suggest San Francisco could give the ball away more often in the championship game. If the 49ers win this prop bet there is a good chance the Chiefs win and cover Super Bowl 54.