Best Super Bowl 54 Bets: 3 Undervalued Teams After Week 2


Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick

Sep 18, 2019, 10:48 AM EDT
  • The Patriots (+350) are the favorites to win Super Bowl 54 after Week 2.
  • We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season to determine if there is value betting the Patriots right now.
  • We also identify two other teams with clear value to lift the Lombardi Trophy in February.

The Patriots were +700 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason. After acquiring Antonio Brown New England’s odds improved to +600. A Week 1 dismantling of the Steelers bumped the defending champions title odds to +400 and following a 43-0 shutout of the Dolphins, the Pats are overwhelming +350 favorites (PointsBet) to win Super Bowl 54.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have won six Lombardi Trophy’s since 2001. Title windows aren’t supposed to stay open for two decades. The Patriots run will come to an end but oddsmakers don’t see it happening this season.

Odds below as of Wednesday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

Being the favorite doesn’t guarantee success and it rarely provides bettors value. However, this Pats team is different. New England is second in the league in scoring (38.0 PPG) and first in points allowed (1.5 PPG). Those statistics will regress over the course of the season but they speak to the talent on this roster. The Ben Roethlisberger injury also removes a potential road block for the New England in the AFC.

According to 10,000 simulations, Brady & Co. are the most likely team to make the playoffs (98.8%), win their division (93.9%) and win the Super Bowl (28.0%).

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