Best Super Bowl 54 Bets: 3 Undervalued Teams After Week 2

Best Super Bowl 54 Bets: 3 Undervalued Teams After Week 2 article feature image

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick

  • The Patriots (+350) are the favorites to win Super Bowl 54 after Week 2.
  • We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season to determine if there is value betting the Patriots right now.
  • We also identify two other teams with clear value to lift the Lombardi Trophy in February.

The Patriots were +700 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason. After acquiring Antonio Brown New England’s odds improved to +600. A Week 1 dismantling of the Steelers bumped the defending champions title odds to +400 and following a 43-0 shutout of the Dolphins, the Pats are overwhelming +350 favorites (PointsBet) to win Super Bowl 54.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have won six Lombardi Trophy’s since 2001. Title windows aren’t supposed to stay open for two decades. The Patriots run will come to an end but oddsmakers don’t see it happening this season.

Odds below as of Wednesday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

Being the favorite doesn’t guarantee success and it rarely provides bettors value. However, this Pats team is different. New England is second in the league in scoring (38.0 PPG) and first in points allowed (1.5 PPG). Those statistics will regress over the course of the season but they speak to the talent on this roster. The Ben Roethlisberger injury also removes a potential road block for the New England in the AFC.

According to 10,000 simulations, Brady & Co. are the most likely team to make the playoffs (98.8%), win their division (93.9%) and win the Super Bowl (28.0%).

At +350 odds, bet $100 to win $350, the implied probability of another Pats title is 22.2%. It is difficult to say this, but the Patriots are being undervalued by the betting market.

If you are a fan of one of the other 31 teams in the league, another Patriots title will be difficult to witness. A future bet on Brady and Belichick could soften the pain of a seventh title.

Can’t bring yourself to bet on New England? Here are two other teams with value to win the Super Bowl based on the difference in implied probability and projected chance.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Current odds: +4000, Implied Probability: 2.4%
  • 49ers win Super Bowl 5.4% of the time

The Niners are 2-0 for the first time since 2012. Since 1990, teams that start 2-0 make the playoffs 61.3% of the time. Before the season began our simulations gave San Francisco a 30.3% chance of reaching the postseason. After a quick start the team’s probability of being a playoff team has improved to 61.6% — in line with the historical average of undefeated teams through Week 2.

A big reason for the bump outside of an undefeated record is the improved play of Jimmy Garoppolo. In his second regular season start since tearing his ACL, Garoppolo threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns, recording a 131.2 passer rating — his best since being traded to the 49ers.

With a 5.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl the 49ers title odds should be closer to +1700, not +4000. There is value backing San Francisco.

Baltimore Ravens

  • Current odds: +1600, Implied Probability: 5.9%
  • Ravens win the Super Bowl 8.6% of the time

Lamar Jackson threw for 272 yards, two touchdowns and added 120 rushing yards in the Ravens 23-17 win over the Cardinals. Jackson became the sixth player since 1970 to record at least 250 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a single game.

Jackson threw his seventh touchdown pass in just his fifth quarter of work this year, surpassing his entire total (six) from last season. The former Louisville product improved to 8-1 as a starting quarterback. Only 12 other quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era started their careers 8-1 or better through nine starts according to ESPN Stats & Info.

Jackson is playing like an All-Pro quarterback. Few anticipated Lamar making this leap but bettors have a chance to grab the Ravens at a good number before Baltimore’s title odds make a jump.

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