Our Favorite Super Bowl Picks, Win Total Bets & Other NFL Futures Following Free Agency
Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott
The initial wave of NFL free agency brought a bevy of signings and trades that have shifted the landscape of the league in just a matter of days.
With expectations for 2020 resetting, our staff is here to walk you through the best available values on NFL futures. Find their three picks below.
Odds as of Friday and via various legal sportsbooks. Find offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks here.
Collin Wilson: Cowboys to Win the NFC East +130
I’ve been waiting to pounce on any Dallas Cowboys future that provided value.
Their Super Bowl odds are as high as 17-1 while their NFC odds are as high as 6-1, but at DraftKings, they’re only +130 to win the NFC East — second to the Eagles at +120. Other sportsbooks, however, are in complete disagreement and make the Cowboys a favorite to win the division.
Free agency has worked in the favor of the Cowboys to this point.
Defensive lineman Gerald McCoy was signed to a multi-year deal to fill one of the few holes on their defense — he had the seventh-highest WAR of any interior defensive lineman in 2019.
The Cowboys may be holding the cards up until the draft. Both wide receiver Randall Cobb and defensive end Robert Quinn were late additions to the 2019 roster, as both outperformed their contracts and have moved on to higher-paying deals. One of the Cowboys’ targets for 2020 could reportedly be Emmanuel Sanders, who played college at SMU.
With Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper signed for 2020, there may not be much more time to get in on a Cowboys division future that should be priced at -115 for the NFC East. Expect new head coach Mike McCarthy to be an upgrade in play calling with an offensive line that is top 10 in run and pass blocking.
John Ewing: Chiefs +650 to Win Super Bowl
Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football. That alone is enough to justify buying the Chiefs to repeat. But it gets better.
The only team that beat Kansas City in the past two postseasons just lost their future Hall of Fame quarterback. The Patriots are currently set to start Jarrett Stidham under center. Bill Belichick is a great coach, but Stidham isn’t leading them to a Super Bowl.
The Chiefs’ biggest free agent this offseason is Chris Jones. Kansas City placed the franchise tag on Jones, who led the team in sacks in each of the past two seasons. KC will either get to enjoy the talents of Jones or potentially trade him for more assets that will help the team in 2020.
Our simulations have Mahomes and Co. winning 11 games on average, capturing the AFC West crown 78.9% of the time and repeating as Super Bowl champions a league-high 17.6% of the time. Based on the model, their Super Bowl odds should be closer to +450.
Bettors are getting nice value at +650 on FanDuel.
Mike Randle: Falcons Under 7.5 Wins (-104)
It’s been all downhill for the Falcons since the crushing Super Bowl LI loss. Atlanta has posted consecutive 7-9 seasons, including a miserable 1-7 start last year. Their pass defense ranked 25th in the league per Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and they just lost top cornerback Desmond Trufant to Detroit.
On offense, Atlanta struggled mightily to run the ball, ranking 30th with just 1,361 total rushing yards as a team. This was after Atlanta invested heavily in the offensive line through the draft with Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary selected in the first round of the draft. The Falcons have now added former Rams running back Todd Gurley on a one-year deal, after releasing former starter Devonta Freeman.
But will this move really help the rushing attack? The 25-year old back failed to tally one game with more than 100 rushing yards in 2019 and ranked outside the top 40 at the position in Yards Per Touch (4.2) and Breakaway Run Rate (2.7%). While Gurley brings an impressive pedigree, it is worth noting the Rams had to release him rather than find a suitable trade partner. Atlanta potentially replaced one injury-prone running back with another.
Somehow, head coach Dan Quinn returned, but faces a brutal road schedule this season with games at Dallas, Green Bay, the Chargers and at the defending Super Bowl champions in Kansas City. The Falcons also have their intra-divisional games against a Saints team that’s won four of their past five contests, and the revamped Buccaneers with new quarterback Tom Brady.
Their personnel moves during the free agency period have been lateral at best.. The loss of tight end Austin Hooper (fifth in receptions in 2019) will hurt, even if replacement Hayden Hurst finds his unfulfilled potential. The Falcons added linebacker Dante Fowler but lost former sack champion Vic Beasley Jr. to Tennessee. Trufant’s departure makes their secondary now a huge area of need.
The Falcons have cap space and can certainly upgrade in the draft, but the -104 price on a struggling team with a desperate coach and holes in several key areas is certainly attractive at under 7.5 wins.