Stuckey: Should You Bet a Teaser in Super Bowl 53?

Stuckey: Should You Bet a Teaser in Super Bowl 53? article feature image
Credit:

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay.

  • Thinking about betting a teaser in Super Bowl 53 between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams?
  • Stuckey analyzes the matchup alongside his go-to rules for NFL teaser betting.

In each of the first three rounds of the 2019 NFL playoffs, I’ve written on my favorite teaser bet.

For the unacquainted, a teaser is when you combine two or more sides/totals into one wager and move the line for each of those bets in your favor.

All of the adjusted bets must win for the overarching wager to pay out.

You can do teasers in many sports, but in the NFL, 6-point teasers are considered standard (meaning you move each line six points in the direction of your choosing).

Now that we’ve reached Super Bowl 53 between the Patriots and Rams, what’s my teaser of choice?

Nothing.

Nada.

Not even on the radar.

Let me explain.


Super Bowl 53 Teaser Tips: Patriots-Rams

Teasing the side and total in a game would violate my third rule of NFL teaser betting: Never put an over/under in a tease.

As I said in my original piece:

NFL totals simply don’t fall on certain numbers or within a specific range enough to justify the math. There are key numbers to be aware of when betting over/unders (example: 43 after the extra point rule change), but they don’t hit frequently enough to justify a tease.

Now, as I mentioned in my article a few weeks ago, you can justify breaking this rule if you are teasing a side and total in the same game that are highly correlated (usually underdog/under and/or favorite/over).

But when you look at Patriots-Rams specifically, that correlation doesn’t exist.

These two teams are such mirror images of each other: They both have premier quarterbacks and coaches, reliable kickers and some exploitable holes on defense.

Even if you wanted to ignore the Never Tease Totals rule and throw your TBD over/under choice in a teaser with one of the sides, the only +EV side you could choose is the Rams, since as we’ve detailed before, teasing a spread through zero is a big no-no.

So, yeah, if you’re looking to soundly bet a teaser in Patriots-Rams, you’re out of luck.

It might be a bummer to sit out the Super Bowl, but rules don’t change — even in the biggest game of the season.