Texans vs. Packers Betting Guide: Does Houston Have Value on the Road?

Texans vs. Packers Betting Guide: Does Houston Have Value on the Road? article feature image

Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) and quarterback Deshaun Watson (4).

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers Betting Odds

  • Spread: Packers -2.5
  • Over/Under: 36
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET

The Packers host the Texans in one of 11 Preseason Week 1 matchups on Thursday night. Let’s take a look at key storylines for both teams, complete with daily fantasy analysis and a pick.

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller have experienced resounding success during their 11 games together over the past two seasons.

  • Watson: 65% completion rate; 9.0 yards per attempt; 32 total touchdowns
  • Hopkins: 69 receptions; 1,113 yards; 12 touchdowns
  • Fuller: 45 receptions; 782 yards; 11 touchdowns

The Texans posted seven wins vs. four losses while averaging 30.8 points over these 11 games.

Further reason for optimism surrounding the 2019 version of this offense is due to Houston finally addressing its porous offensive line by spending a first-round pick on Alabama State tackle Tytus Howard and a second-round pick on Northern Illinois tackle Max Scharping.

The Texans’ offensive line has ranked among the league’s bottom-three units in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate in each of the past two seasons.

Imagine Deshaun Watson with even an average offensive line pic.twitter.com/jkzfZ0TLSE

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 25, 2019

The only bad news for the Texans on Thursday night is the absence of both of their defensive difference-makers in Jadeveon Clowney (holdout) and J.J. Watt (groin/rest).

Green Bay Packers

There’s been a noticeable drop off in Aaron Rodgers’ efficiency over the past three seasons.

Aaron Rodgers yards per attempt and rank among QBs by year (min. 7 starts)

2008: 7.5 (10th)
2009: 8.2 (4th)
2010: 8.3 (2nd)
2011: 9.2 (1st)
2012: 7.8 (7th)
2013: 8.7 (2nd)
2014: 8.4 (2nd)

2015: 6.7 (30th)
2016: 7.3 (14th)
2017: 7 (18th)
2018: 7.4 (17th)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 24, 2019

New Packers head coach Matt LaFleur certainly didn’t benefit from Marcus Mariota’s persistent nerve injury last season that impacted his ability to throw the ball with appropriate velocity. Still, the Titans were pretty much worse in every available offensive metric compared to the Packers in 2018.

  • Titans points per game in 2018: 19.4 (27th)
  • Yards per play: 5.3 (26th)
  • Overall offensive DVOA ranking (Football Outsiders): 22nd
  • Pass DVOA ranking: 25th
  • Rush DVOA ranking: 11th

Rodgers tentatively isn’t expected to play, and the Packers will also be without the services of several of their key defenders. I’m backing the Texans thanks to their combination of better depth and talent under center.

PICK: Texans +2.5

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