The Favorites Pick ’Em Contest: NFL Week 15 Tiebreaker Strategy
Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Lock (left) and Geno Smith (right).
With the launch of The Favorites' NFL pick 'em contest, which is free to play, we decided on tiebreaker props to settle the winners of the $3,000 in weekly prizes.
Two contestants managed to nail the exact number of rushing yards in the Titans-Dolphins game (241) and split the first-place prize. For NFL Week 15 (Eagles vs. Seahawks), we are back to passing yards despite not knowing which quarterback will be under center for Seattle. That will make this analysis a bit more fun and add another element of skill to the prediction.
Important note: You can sign up for this contest at any point during the season.
Week 15 Tiebreaker: Total Passing Yards — Eagles at Seahawks (+4)
Typically it's easier to project passing yards than rushing yards since the vast majority of the production comes from one player on each team. However, when we have two potential starting quarterbacks for one team, it's a bit more difficult.
One difference is between the passing yards thrown by starter Geno Smith and backup Drew Lock. Surprisingly, we have those numbers fairly close — depending on who you ask. Sean Koerner is projecting Lock to start and throw for 245 passing yards while Chris Raybon has Smith in for 242 yards.
While it seems counterintuitive that the backup projects for more yards, there's a reason for that. If Lock gets the start, his errant play could lead to more negative game scripts for Seattle, elevating its passing rate.
A negative game script for Seattle would be a positive script for Philadelphia, thereby limiting Jalen Hurts' passing yards. Raybon has Hurts projected for 257 passing yards (with Smith starting) while Koerner has Hurts projected for 245 yards (with Lock starting).
All together, that gives us a total of 490 yards with Lock and 499 yards if Smith.
My Recommendation: Mid 400s
The real edge here is correlating your spread pick for this game with your prediction for the tiebreaker. As a reminder, you can make your selection at any point in the week and edit it later if you want to. However, if you choose to change one thing, you have to change everything.
Since Smith is truly questionable at the time of this writing, that creates an opportunity for both the spread pick and the tiebreaker. The four-point spread certainly seems to be based on the assumption Smith plays as Philadelphia would be a heavier favorite facing Drew Lock.
Therefore, if making your selection before we have firm news, I'd lock in both the Eagles spread AND a lower tiebreaker total. We're projecting less passing yards with Lock and by going a good bit under the projection we can stay unique.
If we get news that Smith is going to play, you can always go back and edit your pick — both the spread selection on Philly and the passing total. Hopefully that comes before the weekend so you can pivot to other games to bet against the spread without being locked in to the more efficient Monday night line. You could then edit your tiebreaker guess to a higher number, or roll with it and hope for a lower-output game from the starters.
After you enter The Favorites contest, download bet365 with our bet365 promo code.
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