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Eagles vs Titans Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Vrabel’s Side in NFL Week 13

Eagles vs Titans Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Vrabel’s Side in NFL Week 13 article feature image
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Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Vrabel.

Eagles vs Titans Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Eagles Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4.5
-114
44.5
-110o / -110u
-225
Titans Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4.5
-106
44.5
-110o / -110u
+190
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Titans travel to Philadelphia for a game that has the potential to be one of the best of the week. These teams are mirror images of each other when it comes to offensive philosophy, rushing the football on 52% of plays and imposing a physical style that has led them to the top of their respective divisions.

However, something has to give in this matchup. Jalen Hurts is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) at home this season, but the Titans have thrived as underdogs in recent years.

Eagles vs. Titans Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Eagles and Titans match up statistically:

Eagles vs. Titans DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 19 6
Pass DVOA 13 2
Rush DVOA 18 24
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 3 10
Pass DVOA 6 17
Rush DVOA 1 1

When discussing elite interior defenders in today’s NFL, a strong case can be made that Jeffery Simmons is one the very best. His 89.4 Pro Football Focus grade is the fifth-best mark in the league for defensive tackles, and he is a clear difference maker for a defense that ranks number one in rush defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Tennessee is allowing only 3.9 yards per rush and its three touchdowns surrendered on the ground is the fewest in the NFL.

The Eagles have hit paydirt running the football more than any other team this season, as the ground game has accounted for 55% of their offensive scores. Tennessee stuffs rushing plays at or behind the line of scrimmage at a 24% rate, second best in the NFL. The Eagles are going to have to score points in an unconventional manner Sunday and may be playing most of this game outside their comfort zone offensively. 


Bet Tennessee vs. Philadelphia at FanDuel


It is no secret what the Titans want to do when they possess the football — run Derrick Henry and use play-action. The Eagles rank 24th in rush defense DVOA, and since the loss of Jordan Davis in Week 8, they have dropped to 28th (accounting for only the weeks he’s been absent). Only three teams in the league stuff running plays at or behind the line of scrimmage at a lower rate.

The Titans can consistently put themselves in advantageous situations on offense and if the Eagles decide they must commit an extra defender to limit Henry, expect chunk gains in the passing game. In fact, Tennessee has 30 pass plays of 20+ yards on only 275 attempts this season, a 10.9% rate. For context, the Chiefs have an 11.6% rate and the Dolphins are at 11.3%.

The Eagles offense has only faced two opponents that rank in the top 12 in defensive DVOA. Philadelphia defeated the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys in Week 6 but was held to 268 total yards. The Eagles’ second difficult test came in Week 10 when they were limited to 264 total yards on offense, a season low, as they lost to the Commanders at home. The Commanders controlled time of possession (40:24 to 19:36) and were stout against the run, allowing only 94 yards on 20 rushing plays.

Tennessee is in the perfect spot to replicate this formula on Sunday.

Betting Picks

Mike Vrabel has a winning record when the Titans find themselves catching points (22-17 straight up) and his teams have covered at a 61.5% rate as underdogs since he’s been the head coach. When the Titans, under Vrabel, are underdogs of a field goal or more, they are 21-7 (75%) against the spread.

Not only do the trends suggest the value lies with the underdog in this spot, but the specific matchup does as well.

Tennessee’s defense can force the Eagles into a playing style with which they are uncomfortable. Keep in mind, no team has cleared the 20-point mark versus the Titans since Week 3. I will gladly take the points with the visiting team in a game where points will be at a premium.

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